Trump says he bombed Iran

[SomeStupidName]

Even if the raid was in planning for "15 years",  can a 30,000lb bomb be designed to make turns once it is following a ventilation shaft to an underground bunker?

That seems a bit of a reach.


And depending on how far offset a particular shaft is from the actual bunker, the eventual detonation might occur quite far from the intended target, right?

Correct this type of munitions isn't going to turn corners it's more of a burrower they also dropped more than one on each target so yes they could be off target they could also be on target.

[UltraBudgie]

this is interesting

 The sudden claim of Iran being very close to a bomb (that seemingly jumped out of 'nowhere' to leave Americans puzzling how could it happen that -- in the blink of eye, we are going to war -- was subsequently refuted by IAEA Chief Grossi to CNN on 17 June — but only after the abrupt attack on Iran already had taken place:

“We did not have any evidence of a systematic effort [by Iran] to move to a nuclear weapon”, Grossi confirmed on CNN.

...

 The underpinnings to the 12 June 2025 IAEA Resolution -- giving pretext for Israel to strike Iran (and crafted to sway Trump to dismiss his own Director of National Intelligence’s warnings that there was no evidence of Iran moving towards weaponisation) -- reportedly were drawn not from Mossad or other western intelligence services, but from IAEA software. As DD Geo-politics outlines, since 2015, the IAEA has relied on Palantir’s Mosaic platform, a $50-million AI system that sifts through millions of data points -- satellite imagery, social media, personnel logs -- to predict nuclear threats:

"Iran’s stockpile [of enriched uranium] had been growing steadily for months—yet the narrative of an imminent breakthrough surged only after the IAEA’s censure on June 6, 2025. That resolution, adopted 19–3, provided Israel the diplomatic cover it needed. Palantir’s Mosaic platform played a critical role in this pivot. Its data shaped the May 31 report, flagging anomalies at Fordow and Lavisan-Shian, and recycling prior allegations from Turquzabad—despite years-old Iranian denials and sabotage … Mosaic was conceived originally to identify insurgent activity in Iraq and Afghanistan”.

Its algorithim looks to identify and infer 'hostile intent' from indirect indicators -- metadata, behavioral patterns, signal traffic -- not from confirmed evidence. In other words, it postulates what suspects may be thinking, or planning. On 12 June, Iran leaked documents, which it claimed showed IAEA chief Rafael Grossi sharing Mosaic outputs with Israel. By 2018, Mosaic had processed more than 400 million discrete data objects and had helped impute suspicion to over 60 Iranian sites such as to justify unannounced IAEA inspections of those sites, under the JCPOA. These outputs, though dependent largely on the algothimic equations, were incorporated into formal IAEA safeguard reports and were widely accepted by UN member states and non-proliferation regimes as credible, evidence-based assessments. Mosaic however is not a passive system. It is trained to infer from its algorithm hostile intent,but when repurposed for nuclear oversight, its equations risk translating simple correlation into maliciousintent.
 
What leading Israeli commentators are saying:
 
Leading Israeli centre-right commentator, Ben Caspit (Ma’ariv):

“Was Iran's ‘breakthrough’ to the nuclear weapon actually detected? Probably not. Was the [Supreme] Leader's "order" to achieve a military nuclear weapon actually given? Probably not. So why did we go to war? Because there was no choice. They were promoting an Israel's annihilation plan and we had no choice ... October 7: A cold shower woke up an entire country. All those involved need to understand that anyone who contemplates our destruction will be destroyed. Eyes on the ball and a bullet between the eyes … From now on, every move one of our enemies makes somewhere must be followed by action. Every snake's head that rises must be beheaded … And there is something else: the rare and one-time historical window of opportunity that suddenly opened before us … All of this made the decision to go to this war the right one … Netanyahu is currently in euphoria”.

...

 Seemingly, Trump had been convinced by Netanyahu, Ron Dermer and CENTOM’s General Kurila (Politico reports that Kurila was instrumental in persuading Trump that DNI Tulsi Gabbard was wrong in her assessment that Iran had ‘no bomb’). Trump sided with the Israelis, asserting that Iran was "very close" to having a bomb, and added that he ‘didn't care what she [Gabbard] thinks’. He did speculate out loud -- the day before the sneak 13 June -- that an Israeli attack (on Iran) “could speed [up] a deal”.
 
There is little doubt that Syria’s unexpectedly sudden ‘fall’ galvanized the neo-cons to imagine they might quickly repeat the exercise in Iran. This is why, too, so much emphasis is being laid on assassinating the Supreme Leader. When Iran did not collapse; when the Iranian system rebooted itself unexpectedly swiftly; and when Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel began, the pro-Israeli bloc panicked and exerted tremendous pressure on Trump for the US to enter the war on Israel’s behalf.
 
This left Trump facing a terrible dilemma -- having to choose between between the sirens, Scylla and Charybdis -- either to alienate his MAGA support base (who voted for him precisely to prevent the US joining another forever war (thus likely causing a GOP loss at the next midterms)), or to alienate his ultra-rich Jewish donors (such as Miriam Adelson, whose money holds sway over Congress, and whose resources are harnessed by the Deep State to pursue mutual interests with the Israeli-Firsters), who would turn against him.

Shades of Iraq and the Colin Powell role …

https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/th...at-started

hmm is there a new phase to pushback "blame the ai" or is this new manufactured consent what do you think or is propaganda?

[putnam6]

Even if the raid was in planning for "15 years",  can a 30,000lb bomb be designed to make turns once it is following a ventilation shaft to an underground bunker?

That seems a bit of a reach.


And depending on how far offset a particular shaft is from the actual bunker, the eventual detonation might occur quite far from the intended target, right?

Too bad Israel and the US didn't have detailed blueprints and schematics of the site, so they could have planned for all challenges at the target site.




Oh wait, they likely did... 

The U.S. and Israel likely had access to detailed schematics of Fordow, thanks to the 2018 Mossad operation and subsequent intelligence analysis, enabling precise targeting of vulnerabilities like ventilation shafts.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/bP9ibnLWFFnc3ss7Q4Oa91Fos
 

Access to Schematics and Blueprints of the Fordow Nuclear Plant
Yes, both the United States and Israel likely had access to detailed schematics and blueprints of Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, primarily due to a 2018 Israeli intelligence operation. Israel's Mossad conducted a raid on a warehouse in Tehran, where they stole a significant archive of documents related to Iran's nuclear program, including detailed designs and diagrams of the Fordow facility (referred to as the Al Ghadir project in some documents). These documents provided insights into the underground structure, including the layout of tunnels, centrifuge halls, and critical infrastructure like ventilation shafts.
The stolen archive, parts of which were made public, included schematics that showed the facility's underground layout, with specifics on the location of ventilation shafts and service-related structures. These documents were analyzed by experts, such as those at the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), who used them to map the facility's design onto satellite imagery. This gave both the U.S. and Israel a clear understanding of Fordow's layout, including potential vulnerabilities like ventilation shafts.
Additionally, historical satellite imagery and construction photos from as early as 2009, when the ventilation shaft was being built, provided further intelligence. The U.S. also reportedly constructed a replica of Fordow in the desert and tested the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) against it, indicating access to detailed structural information to simulate the facility's design.
Difficulty of Penetrating Ventilation Shafts to Hit Critical Components
Penetrating the Fordow facility through its ventilation shafts to hit critical components, such as the centrifuge halls, is considered a highly challenging but strategically viable approach due to the facility's fortified design. Here are the key factors affecting the difficulty:

• Depth and Fortification:
  • Fordow is buried approximately 80–90 meters (262–295 feet) under a mountain, reinforced with concrete, making it one of Iran's most protected nuclear sites.
    
  • Most conventional bunker-buster bombs, including Israel's GBU-28 and BLU-109, can only penetrate up to 6–10 meters of concrete or 25 meters of soil, rendering them insufficient to reach the centrifuge halls directly.
    
  • The U.S. GBU-57 MOP, carried exclusively by B-2 stealth bombers, is designed to penetrate up to 61 meters (200 feet) of earth or 18 meters of concrete. Even this bomb may not reach the full depth of Fordow's halls with a single strike, requiring multiple sequential drops to "dig" deeper.
    
• Ventilation Shafts as Vulnerabilities:
  • Ventilation shafts are considered a critical vulnerability because they provide a direct pathway through the rock to the underground facility, bypassing some of the protective layers.
    
  • Satellite imagery and stolen schematics identified the location of at least one ventilation shaft, which was camouflaged after construction but visible in historical imagery.
    
  • U.S. strikes on June 22, 2025, reportedly targeted these shafts, with satellite imagery showing six craters (two clusters of three) aligned with the ventilation shaft and service structures above the centrifuge halls. Experts suggest that targeting the shafts allowed MOPs to penetrate deeper, as the shafts interrupt the rock's integrity, potentially reaching or damaging the enrichment halls.
    
  • Iran attempted to mitigate this vulnerability by backfilling entrances and possibly covering ventilation shafts with concrete before the U.S. strikes, but the MOPs were able to penetrate these defenses.
    
• Challenges in Hitting Critical Components:
  • The centrifuge halls, housing approximately 3,000 centrifuges, are the primary critical components at Fordow. These are highly sensitive to shock and vibration, and even if the halls are not completely destroyed, the explosive force of MOPs could render centrifuges inoperable through shockwaves or temperature effects.
    
  • Experts note that penetrating the ventilation shafts could cause significant damage by channeling explosive energy into the underground spaces, potentially destroying equipment or disrupting operations for years. However, irregularities in the mountain's geology could deflect shockwaves, reducing effectiveness.
    
  • Assessments vary on the extent of damage. Some sources, including the Israel Atomic Energy Commission and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, suggest the facility was "severely damaged" or "inoperable," with centrifuges likely destroyed. Others, including a leaked U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessment, indicate the strikes may have only set back operations by months, suggesting partial survival of critical components.
    
• Alternative Approaches:
  • Beyond airstrikes, sabotage or commando raids could target ventilation shafts or power supplies to disable the facility. For example, cutting power could cause centrifuges to spin out of control, as seen in previous attacks on Natanz. However, a ground operation to plant explosives inside the shafts would be high-risk and logistically complex.
    
  • Israel has a history of successful sabotage, such as the Stuxnet cyberattack on Natanz, but physical access to Fordow's ventilation shafts would require penetrating a heavily guarded facility near Qom, a sensitive religious site, increasing political and operational risks.
    

Conclusion:
The U.S. and Israel had access to detailed schematics of Fordow, thanks to the 2018 Mossad operation and subsequent intelligence analysis, enabling precise targeting of vulnerabilities like ventilation shafts. Penetrating these shafts with GBU-57 MOPs was a strategic choice to bypass the facility's deep fortification, but it remained a difficult task due to the 80–90-meter depth and geological challenges. While the U.S. strikes in June 2025 likely caused significant damage, possibly rendering the centrifuge halls inoperable, uncertainties remain about the full extent of destruction. Multiple MOP strikes on the ventilation shafts appear to have exploited a key weakness, but complete destruction of critical components is not guaranteed, and Iran may retain some capacity to recover.

[quintessentone]

this is interesting
https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/th...at-started

hmm is there a new phase to pushback "blame the ai" or is this new manufactured consent what do you think or is propaganda?

Blame Palatir? Their largest stock holder is Peter Thiel...any conspiracy theorists want to run with that one?




Palatnir CEO, Karp, is purported to be a Neo-Con, Zionist Israel government supporter (warmonger?) - the guy in charge of AI algorithms for U.S. government Intel...




From the video comments section, an interesting question is asked -

"Why does somebody whose loyalty to another country, own a dangerous unconstitutional surveillance business in America?"

[putnam6]

Why would the Foreign Minister contradict the Ayatollah? 

Iran would have much more bargaining power with a less damaged nuclear program
  

[xuenchen]

Why would the Foreign Minister contradict the Ayatollah? 

Iran would have much more bargaining power with a less damaged nuclear program
  [Image: https://denyignorance.com/uploader/image...13-418.jpg]

Iranian "Strategy" a little weak 
Lies and chaos always part of their own failures 

[putnam6]

Iranian "Strategy" a little weak 
Lies and chaos always part of their own failures 

Yeah, thats a dangerous lie if he is lying independent of the Ayatollah, even if it's a joint subterfuge, it risks Israel attacking if they know different.

Feels like they are going to pull a Biden/Admin switcheroo, Tehran style

[andy06shake]

Housatonic was a Ripple design. It was designed for a high fusion fuel burn up, and high yield to weight ratio. The Ripple design was the most advanced nuclear weapons ever built, and many of their features were later used in reactors and other designs, but were never used in weapons beyond a few tests. They were able to get up to about 15 megatons, with Housatonic being 8.3 megatons, and had a yield to weight ratio of 2.56kt/kg.

It still produced significant fallout.

Estimates suggest it was 50-80% fusion, which would seem to make it cleaner than the earlier thermonuclear tests.

8.3 megatons, never mind 15, means it was big b@stard eh?

[ANNEE]

Im no expert, but I heard on the news that the plan was 15 years in the making, and that the bombs used were designed with this particular site in mind.

DoD

My opinion is — there are many, many plans that have been / or have existed on paper for many, many years. Pre-preparation of possible scenarios. 

Choosing to execute, in real time, one of those plans is a different matter.

[quintessentone]

My opinion is — there are many, many plans that have been / or have existed on paper for many, many years. Pre-preparation of possible scenarios. 

Choosing to execute, in real time, one of those plans is a different matter.

It has been reported or relayed on a video that this is the first time they used these bunker busters, and they tested one only once, which basically went through a makeshift one or two-storey scenario on the side of a hill where it basically went through dirt and exploded after a 30 foot descent. It was also relayed and explained that Iranian officials were aware of this test and if they were smart would have designed their facilities counter to how this bomb operates, that being, deeper (275-350') and not straight down.