Trump says he bombed Iran

[quintessentone]

"The Unknowns

Experts say that, despite these strikes, Iran may still have a significant nuclear capability. Before the attacks, the IAEA assessed that Iran had more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium that was near bomb grade. That material had been under safeguards, but now, Grossi says, the Iranians have informed the agency that they have taken protective measures, presumably moving the material to an undisclosed location.
 
The uranium can be stored in containers that are the size of a keg or a scuba tank, says Corey Hinderstein, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "These are easily moveable, they're easily concealable, and as of now, I don't think we can be confident we know where everything is."

Obliterated? Damaged? Inoperable? What's known about Iran's nuclear facilities : NPR

[andy06shake]

trump warned them ahead of time to reduce causalities, and it backfired on him cause it gave them plenty of time to move the "stuff" out

If that's true, you have to wonder why he never saw that one coming.

I mean the man has military advisors.

Who would have pointed out the shortcomings of prewarning them of an attack.

All he had to do was listen to them....................................

[Zaphod58]

That would be the fission trigger i should imagine.

It still produced fallout, significantly reduced due to the fact that the test was a high-altitude airburst.

Detonate the same device at 1000ft above any major city, and you would still get significant fallout and widespread radioactive contamination.

As far as im aware, all nuclear weapons have serious radioactive consequences, so the term "clean nuclear weapon" is a bit of a misnomer.

Plug the data into the likes of "https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/" and the mess an 8.3 megaton blast can make is rather apparent.

Not that i imagine it would require a weapon with such a yield to get the job done.

The nuclear map doesn't take into account the type of warhead. That makes a huge difference. If you can build a device that's 99%+ efficient you aren't going to have "significant fallout". Modern nuclear weapons have significant fallout because they aren't efficient. Detonate a Ripple device 1000 feet above a city, and after a few hours, or days at most and you won't even know it had gone off.

[quintessentone]

Yep. They got real lucky hitting all those locations and targets all within minutes of each other with all those assets and planes and ships and planning. 

I didn't mean that, what I meant was that even now they are only guessing that the "main target", that being very deep underground, under steel, granite and concrete was actually 'obliterated', but you knew what I meant. Do the Twist much?

[putnam6]

My opinion is — there are many, many plans that have been / or have existed on paper for many, many years. Pre-preparation of possible scenarios. 

Choosing to execute, in real time, one of those plans is a different matter.

It's definitely just an opinion because it has no factual basis...

The opinion presented suggests there was a roll-the-dice aspect to the planning. IF they had details and schematics of the site for 7 years, it was planned out to the last detail a long time ago was a much more likely process

If they had plans, what opinion is more likely?
throw shit at the wall and see what sticks plan, or

a 15-year in the making plan with 7 of them with their ability to specifically plan based on the schematics of the site....

Perhaps in the previous administration, the military abandoned those plans and decided to just unfreeze more Iranian assets as a precaution

The U.S. and Israel had access to detailed schematics of Fordow, thanks to the 2018 Mossad operation and subsequent intelligence analysis, enabling precise targeting of vulnerabilities like ventilation shafts. Penetrating these shafts with GBU-57 MOPs was a strategic choice to bypass the facility's deep fortification, but it remained a difficult task due to the 80–90-meter depth and geological challenges. While the U.S. strikes in June 2025 likely caused significant damage, possibly rendering the centrifuge halls inoperable, uncertainties remain about the full extent of destruction. Multiple MOP strikes on the ventilation shafts appear to have exploited a key weakness, but complete destruction of critical components is not guaranteed, and Iran may retain some capacity to recover.

[andy06shake]

The nuclear map doesn't take into account the type of warhead. That makes a huge difference. If you can build a device that's 99%+ efficient you aren't going to have "significant fallout". Modern nuclear weapons have significant fallout because they aren't efficient. Detonate a Ripple device 1000 feet above a city, and after a few hours, or days at most and you won't even know it had gone off.

Well, let's hope they never test the premise.

And i think they might know it went off. ;)

Detonate something of that magnitude above any city.

And the fallout may be the least of your concerns.

I mean, the fires would still be burning a few days later for a start. 

The fact that modern nuclear weapons have significant fallout is part and parcel of their design. 

Take, for instance, the Soviet war plans for Europe, which involved irradiating key regions to hinder NATO troop movement.

And i think NATO same idea with strategies that involved irradiating large swaths of land to block Soviet advances. 

I still suggest that the term clean nuclear weapons is a misnomer given the very nature of the device. 

And i would have thought that in practice, it's extremely difficult, nigh on impossible, to build any sort of nuclear device that's 99%+ efficient.

By the looks of it the Housatonic test resulted in 85-95% fusion yield, so even 5% of 8.3 megatons(0.415 Mt) is a huge amount of radioactive fallout(and i get that it doesn't all reach the ground). 

Unless im somehow getting the calculation wrong.

[quintessentone]

It's definitely just an opinion because it has no factual basis...

The opinion presented suggests there was a roll-the-dice aspect to the planning. IF they had details and schematics of the site for 7 years, it was planned out to the last detail a long time ago was a much more likely process

If they had plans, what opinion is more likely?
throw shit at the wall and see what sticks plan, or

a 15-year in the making plan with 7 of them with their ability to specifically plan based on the schematics of the site....

Perhaps in the previous administration, the military abandoned those plans and decided to just unfreeze more Iranian assets as a precaution

How come you left out the source's link?

[Mantiss2021]

"Penetrating these shafts with GBU-57 MOPs was a strategic choice to bypass the facility's deep fortification, but it remained a difficult task due to the 80–90-meter depth and geological challenges. While the U.S. strikes in June 2025 likely caused significant damage, possibly rendering the centrifuge halls inoperable, uncertainties remain about the full extent of destruction. Multiple MOP strikes on the ventilation shafts appear to have exploited a key weakness, but complete destruction of critical components is not guaranteed, and Iran may retain some capacity to recover."



Why does this scenario sound so much like a plot device from the first "Star Wars" film? 

I mean....


When did our reality become a sci-fi fantasy scrip? 

And can we please get some better writers on the payroll!!!

[quintessentone]

"Penetrating these shafts with GBU-57 MOPs was a strategic choice to bypass the facility's deep fortification, but it remained a difficult task due to the 80–90-meter depth and geological challenges. While the U.S. strikes in June 2025 likely caused significant damage, possibly rendering the centrifuge halls inoperable, uncertainties remain about the full extent of destruction. Multiple MOP strikes on the ventilation shafts appear to have exploited a key weakness, but complete destruction of critical components is not guaranteed, and Iran may retain some capacity to recover."



Why does this scenario sound so much like a plot device from the first "Star Wars" film? 

I mean....


When did our reality become a sci-fi fantasy scrip? 

And can we please get some better writers on the payroll!!!

Or find a Jedi knight that can see, using the force, where the underground target location really lies and which exact ventilation entrance to bomb. It's the only way.

[Zaphod58]

Well, let's hope they never test the premise.

And i think they might know it went off. ;)

Detonate something of that magnitude above any city.

And the fallout may be the least of your concerns.

The fact that modern nuclear weapons have significant fallout is part and parcel of their design. 

Take, for instance, the Soviet war plans for Europe, which involved irradiating key regions to hinder NATO troop movement.

And i think NATO same idea with strategies that involved irradiating large swaths of land to block Soviet advances. 

I still suggest that the term clean nuclear weapons is a misnomer given the very nature of the device. 

And i would have thought that in practice, it's extremely difficult, nigh on impossible, to build any sort of nuclear device that's 99%+ efficient.

By the looks of it the Housatonic test resulted in 85-95% fusion yield, so even 5% of 8.3 megatons(0.415 Mt) is a huge amount of radioactive fallout(and i get that it doesn't all reach the ground). 

Unless im somehow getting the calculation wrong.

There’s a lot of debate about the size of the blast in the test. It was planned for 8.5 megatons, but some researchers say they analyzed the blast videos and pushed the yield up to over 9 megatons. At 8.5 its efficiency was significantly higher. They achieved 2.5kt/kg, which is unheard of with modern weapons. A B83, with a 1.2 megaton yield, has an efficiency of 1.09kt/kg.