Trump says he bombed Iran

[andy06shake]

Your reading comprehension is shot.

That is not my blog, I did not mention it. The words red mercury really triggered you- I should have edited the post but I found it interesting as a whole. 


MIT analysed the data of the bomb test and found it to be 99.-% clean.
This is per wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Dominic

The test in question was Housatonic
on the bottom of the chart there

This is on pages 133–161 of the Journal here from MIT https://direct.mit.edu/jcws/article-abst...m=fulltext

Now that I have connected all the dots for you would you like me to do any other basic comprehension tasks for you? 

Unfortunately I do not have access to the full journal but I am going to take an MIT scientist's word on the cleanliness of the bomb over some rando on a web forum who can't discern wheat from chaff, sorry, sir. 

https://muse.jhu.edu/article/794729
Has a page shot.

The idea that the Housatonic nuclear test was "99% clean" doesn't make sense. 

No nuclear bomb is truly clean, they all release some level of radiation and fallout.

The claim likely comes from a Cold War-era attempt to make these tests sound safer than they were.

In short, clean nuclear bombs are a real concept, but they’re only cleaner relative to other nukes.

They’re not totally safe or free from radioactive danger.

And the idea that a nuke could be 100% clean is basically a myth because of how nuclear reactions work.

But hey'how if some MIT paper told you so, then it must be true. 

It's not dots you are after, mate, it's a science lesson by the looks of it.

I mean if what you are suggesting were possible, fusion power, at least of a sort, would be an actual thing by now, you get that right?

99/100% pure and clean fusion bombs, think about the implications.   

[andy06shake]

So did my Dad... we still play Gene Autry's Christmas album and have for most of my 60 years

I've got all my grandparents' old records from way back, from just after the Second World War, in the loft.

Some of them are worth a bomb, a couple of hundred notes, most of the others anywhere from £30-£50 quid.

Sentimental value i suppose, the weans will probably sell them when im gone.

Some of them are country music i seem to recall.

Anyhoo and back on topic, total destruction or partial annihilation aside, i think its a safe bet that if, or rather when, Iran does develop a working nuke, it's going to be a game changer area-wise.

I dont think they would be so stupid as to target Israel because let's face it, they will be forced to reside in the same M.A.D world as the rest of the nuclear powers.

But is a bad idea, and should the regime change again, which im apt to ponder is about to happen rather soon, who knows what we get next, or rather who?

Hopefully somebody progressive???!!!

Thoughts, who's next in line, is there a line,  I've not got a clue?

[xuenchen]

Secretary of Defense Hegseth says "it's in your DNA" 

[xuenchen]

General Caine said the Fordow Op was 15 years in the making!! 

[Zaphod58]

The idea that the Housatonic nuclear test was "99% clean" doesn't make sense. 

No nuclear bomb is truly clean, they all release some level of radiation and fallout.

Housatonic was a Ripple design. It was designed for a high fusion fuel burn up, and high yield to weight ratio. The Ripple design was the most advanced nuclear weapons ever built, and many of their features were later used in reactors and other designs, but were never used in weapons beyond a few tests. They were able to get up to about 15 megatons, with Housatonic being 8.3 megatons, and had a yield to weight ratio of 2.56kt/kg.

[putnam6]

I've got all my grandparents' old records from way back, from just after the Second World War, in the loft.

Some of them are worth a bomb, a couple of hundred notes, most of the others anywhere from £30-£50 quid.

Sentimental value i suppose, the weans will probably sell them when im gone.

Some of them are country music i seem to recall.

Anyhoo and back on topic, total destruction or partial annihilation aside, i think its a safe bet that if, or rather when, Iran does develop a working nuke, it's going to be a game changer area-wise.

I dont think they would be so stupid as to target Israel because let's face it, they will be forced to reside in the same M.A.D world as the rest of the nuclear powers.

But is a bad idea, and should the regime change again, which im apt to ponder is about to happen rather soon, who knows what we get next, or rather who?

Hopefully somebody progressive???!!!

Thoughts, who's next in line, is there a line,  I've not got a clue?

I ran it through Grok AI, get it IRAN it anyway, here's what it suggested, and I can't argue

It will likely be theocratic or a military dictatorship... 

The chances of a progressive democratic Iranian government with a nuclear weapon are virtually nil. 

Iran is highly likely (80–90%) to attempt reconstituting its nuclear program if the Ayatollah regime or an IRGC-led successor remains in power, driven by strategic and domestic imperatives. A reformist government reduces this likelihood to 50–70%, and a fragmented state lowers it further (30–50%), though rogue elements remain a concern.
Timeline: 

• With existing uranium and surviving centrifuges, Iran could resume enrichment to 60–90% within 3–6 months in a covert or hardened facility, potentially producing enough material for 5–10 weapons in weeks thereafter. A crude nuclear  weapon could be ready in 6–12 months, while a deliverable warhead might take 1–2 years.
  
• Regime collapse could extend the timeline to 1–2 years under a reformist government or fragmented state, but an IRGC-led regime would likely maintain the 3–12 month range.
  
• Uncertainties about the uranium stockpile’s location and the extent of damage to covert facilities make precise predictions challenging, but Iran’s preserved expertise and resources suggest a relatively short reconstitution period absent significant external intervention.
  

 

 

If the current regime in Iran, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were to fall, the question of who might replace it depends on whether the Islamic Republic's theocratic system continues or is replaced by a different form of government. The succession process within the current system is managed by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of senior clerics responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader. However, a complete regime collapse could lead to a power vacuum, with various factions—clerical, military, reformist, or opposition groups—vying for control. Below, I outline potential candidates and groups that could emerge as contenders, based on the available information and the political dynamics in Iran as of June 2025.
Within the Current Theocratic System
If the Islamic Republic's structure remains intact, the Assembly of Experts would select a new Supreme Leader from among senior clerics, prioritizing loyalty to the revolutionary ideals of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and alignment with the regime's hardline ideology. Recent reports indicate Khamenei has named three senior clerics as potential successors to ensure a swift transition in case of his death, though their identities remain undisclosed. Below are some frequently mentioned candidates within the regime:

• Mojtaba Khamenei (Age: 56)  
  • Background: The second son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba is a mid-ranking cleric with significant influence within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s clerical establishment. He has been involved in suppressing protests and manipulating elections to favor hardline candidates.
    
  • Strengths: His proximity to his father and the IRGC gives him considerable power and access to the regime’s inner circle. He is seen as a hardliner who would likely continue his father’s policies.
    
  • Challenges: His selection could provoke backlash due to perceptions of hereditary succession, which contradicts the Islamic Republic’s anti-monarchical principles. Critics, including reformist leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi, have targeted him for this reason. Some reports suggest he is not among Khamenei’s chosen successors.
    
• Hassan Khomeini (Age: 53)  
  • Background: The grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, Hassan is a cleric with ties to the reformist faction. He was barred from running for the Assembly of Experts in 2016 due to his reformist leanings but retains respect among clerics and the IRGC because of his lineage.
    
  • Strengths: His reformist credentials and Khomeini name could make him a conciliatory choice, appealing to both domestic moderates and international actors seeking a less confrontational Iran. Analysts suggest he could facilitate a slow transition toward a less hardline regime.
    
  • Challenges: His exclusion from the regime’s upper echelons and reformist stance make him a less likely choice for hardliners in the Assembly of Experts.
    
• Alireza Arafi (Age: ~66)  
  • Background: A senior cleric and trusted aide of Khamenei, Arafi serves as the deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a member of the Guardian Council, and the Friday prayer leader in Qom. He is deeply embedded in Iran’s religious and political structures.
    
  • Strengths: His extensive knowledge of Iran’s power structure and loyalty to Khamenei make him a strong candidate within the current system. His roles in key institutions give him influence and credibility.
    
  • Challenges: He lacks the black turban indicating descent from the Prophet Mohammad, a traditional qualification for the Supreme Leader, which could limit his appeal.
    
• Ali Larijani (Age: ~67)  
  • Background: A former parliament speaker and member of a prominent clerical family in Qom, Larijani is a conservative with a pragmatic streak. He has held roles such as head of state broadcaster and member of the Expediency Council, and he maintains close ties to the IRGC and Khamenei.
    
  • Strengths: His experience in governance and reputation as a compromise candidate could make him appealing to both hardliners and moderates. His independence from the most extreme factions might stabilize the regime during a transition.
    
  • Challenges: His failure to secure a seat in the Assembly of Experts in recent elections suggests waning influence.
    
• Mohammad-Ali Movahedi Kermani (Age: 92)  
  • Background: Elected chairman of the Assembly of Experts in 2024, Movahedi Kermani is a senior cleric and regime loyalist.
    
  • Strengths: His leadership in the Assembly of Experts positions him as a potential interim or compromise candidate, especially given his age and experience.
    
  • Challenges: At 92, his age makes him an unlikely long-term successor, and he may serve more as a transitional figure if chosen.
    

In Case of Regime Collapse
A complete fall of the Islamic Republic could lead to a power vacuum, with various groups competing for control. The outcome would depend on whether the transition is driven by internal forces (e.g., military coup, popular uprising) or external intervention (e.g., Israeli or U.S. actions). Below are potential contenders and scenarios outside the current theocratic framework:

• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)  
  • Role: The IRGC, with approximately 190,000 personnel, is a powerful military and political force loyal to the Islamic Republic’s ideology. If the clerical regime collapses, the IRGC could impose martial law or attempt to install a new Supreme Leader, possibly Mojtaba Khamenei or another loyalist.
    
  • Scenario: In a wartime scenario, the IRGC might establish a military-led government, prioritizing security and deterrence, potentially accelerating Iran’s nuclear program. Analysts warn this could lead to a more repressive, militarized state rather than a democratic one.
    
  • Challenges: The IRGC’s lack of broad public support and the deaths of key commanders (e.g., Hossein Salami, Amir Ali Hajizadeh) in recent Israeli strikes weaken its capacity to govern alone.
    
• Reza Pahlavi (Age: 65)  
  • Background: The exiled Crown Prince and son of the last Shah, Reza Pahlavi lives in the U.S. and advocates for a non-violent transition to a secular, democratic Iran through a referendum. He claims Iran’s command structures are collapsing and has called for Iranians to “reclaim” their country.
    
  • Strengths: Pahlavi enjoys support among the Iranian diaspora and some secularists nostalgic for the pre-1979 monarchy. His international connections, particularly in the U.S., could bolster his influence.
    
  • Challenges: His association with the monarchy and lack of a strong, organized base inside Iran limit his appeal. Ethnic minorities, such as Kurds and Baloch, view him skeptically, fearing Persian dominance.
    
• Ethnic and Regional Opposition Groups  
  • Background: Iran’s diverse population includes Persians, Azeris, Kurds, Baloch, and Arabs, many of whom face discrimination. Kurdish and Baloch groups have engaged in insurgencies, while Ahwazi Arabs and others seek greater autonomy.
    
  • Scenario: A regime collapse could embolden separatist movements, leading to fragmentation or civil war. Leaders like Aref Al-Kaabi of the Ahwazi community argue that trust-building between ethnic groups and the Persian opposition is essential for a unified transition.
    
  • Challenges: These groups lack unity and a centralized leadership structure. The IRGC has suppressed recent mobilization attempts, particularly in Ahwaz.
    
• Reformist and Protest Movements  
  • Background: Figures like Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi led the Green Movement in 2009, advocating democratic reforms within the Islamic Republic. Both have been under house arrest since. The 2022 protests, sparked by Mahsa Amini’s death, showed widespread public discontent but lacked cohesive leadership.
    
  • Scenario: A popular uprising could elevate reformist or secular figures, but the opposition’s fragmentation and the regime’s brutal suppression of dissent make this unlikely without external support.
    
  • Challenges: The opposition is divided, with no clear leader or organization capable of governing post-collapse. Exile groups, like the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, oppose foreign intervention and want Iranians to determine their future.
    

Key Considerations

• Regime Resilience: Iran’s state is structured for survival, with a dual military (Artesh and IRGC) and the Basij paramilitary network embedded in society. Even if Khamenei is killed, the system is designed to regenerate leadership, making a total collapse less likely without sustained internal or external pressure.
  
• Risk of Chaos: A regime fall without a clear successor could lead to civil war, with ethnic groups, the IRGC, and opposition factions competing for power. Analysts warn of outcomes similar to post-2003 Iraq or post-2011 Libya, with destabilizing effects across the Middle East.
  
• External Influence: Israeli and U.S. actions, including strikes on Iran’s military and nuclear facilities, could weaken the regime but risk galvanizing hardline factions or pushing Iran toward nuclear weaponization. Both Reza Pahlavi and groups like Komala oppose foreign-engineered regime change, fearing it would undermine legitimacy.
  

Conclusion
Within the Islamic Republic’s framework, Mojtaba Khamenei, Hassan Khomeini, Alireza Arafi, and Ali Larijani are among the top contenders to succeed Ayatollah Khamenei, with the Assembly of Experts favoring hardline loyalists. If the regime collapses entirely, the IRGC could seize power, or figures like Reza Pahlavi might attempt to lead a secular transition, though their success is uncertain due to internal divisions and ethnic tensions. The lack of a unified opposition and the regime’s robust security apparatus suggest that any transition would be fraught with challenges, potentially leading to chaos rather than democracy.

[Mantiss2021]

Report is that the bunker buster bombs dropped on the Fordo facility in Iran targeted the ventilation shafts.

Problem is, ventilation shafts do not always go "straight down".

So,, could any deflection of these MOP's from a straight, vertical, drop potentially degrade their penetrative ability?  Would that affect their destructive capability?

[pianopraze]

I've said over and over ... Trump lies.   
And I describe his lies as bloviating as well because he mixes the two together.
He has it down to an art form.  I've never seen anything like it.
All politicians lie, but he mixes in the grand bloviating ... 

Again ... American intel, Israeli intel, Iranian intel, and United Nations intel all agree ... badly damaged to destroyed.  Trump uses the term 'obliterated'.   That's him using big colorful words which he does with everything.   Obliterated and destroyed mean pretty much the same thing.   He is saying what the intel says.

If it were just him saying it, then I would also question the validity of it.   But it's not just him.  It's all four sources.

And I've said over and over, we won't know the full extent of the damage for weeks if not months.  The initial assessments all agree however ... badly damaged to destroyed.

Hard reading all this back and forth as I agree with all sides to some extent.

i don’t believe any politician, agreeing with post from - was it Andy that said that?. Red or Blue hat, right left, whatever… they all lie constantly.

Inteligence agencies lie rather than tell the truth. We will likely never know the truth on most things.

Trump lies and exaggerates constantly, just like the rest. 

But when he does tell the truth the left absolutely will die before admitting it.

hint: 99.9% of the time he’s baiting the left by taking a subject and telling the truth in general but lying on some small part. The left falls for it most of the time and go absolutely crazy, and people like flyers fan who otherwise dislike him are left defending the truth even as they dislike Trump. 

It’s a big gotcha game all the way around. The left furious, the right laughing their asses off and libertarians sick they are getting drawn into it.

[IDELB2006]

Report is that the bunker buster bombs dropped on the Fordo facility in Iran targeted the ventilation shafts.

Problem is, ventilation shafts do always go "straight down".

So,, could any deflection of these MOP's from a straight, vertical, drop potentially degrade their penetrative ability?  Would that affect their destructive capability?

Im no expert, but I heard on the news that the plan was 15 years in the making, and that the bombs used were designed with this particular site in mind.

DoD

[Mantiss2021]

Even if the raid was in planning for "15 years",  can a 30,000lb bomb be designed to make turns once it is following a ventilation shaft to an underground bunker?

That seems a bit of a reach.


And depending on how far offset a particular shaft is from the actual bunker, the eventual detonation might occur quite far from the intended target, right?