US-Iran War Mudpit Thread

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

Quick on negative polls about Trump and republicans, is there an unbiased poll for democrats?

The finest of margins. Democrat favorability opinions are only 1% to 3% higher (or even lower) based on poll used. 

• YouGov / The Economist: 41% favorable
  

• AP-NORC: 40% favorable
  

• Financial Times / Focaldata: 40% favorable
  

• Data for Progress: 48% favorable  Links: [1, 3]
  

Real Clear Politics GOP comparison.
50+1 GOP comparison

The unfavorability of the opposition party doesn't necessarily favor an incumbent equally under water.  But it does say INDEPENDENTS (of all demographics pissed at both parties) likely decide this. And to pull another upset Trump needs them back by November.

[DBCowboy]

The finest of margins. Democrat favorability opinions are only 1% to 3% higher (or even lower) based on poll used. 

Real Clear Politics GOP comparison.
50+1 GOP comparison

The unfavorability of the opposition party doesn't necessarily favor an incumbent equally under water.  But it does say INDEPENDENTS (of all demographics pissed at both parties) likely decide this. And to pull another upset Trump needs them back by November.

Independents aren't going to vote for a party that supports communism.

[Knows]

Fair enough: 

https://echeloninsights.com/insights/jul...-omnibus-1

For other data (not in Echelon Insights) like Latino and Independent i went to other sources. 

From your listed source: 

• [i]American voters support the SAVE Act by 57% to 34%, with only 9% unsure.[/i]
  
• Republicans say the SAVE Act not passing the Senate shows a need to elect more Republicans (67%) rather than fatal party ineffectiveness (18%).
  

• Americans are sick of this. 
  

JB Pritzker Just Unmasked 1,700 Releases, and the Illinois detail gets even uglier. 

The Democrats are completely corrupt. And it is being quickly fixed by Trump and co. Democrats just obstruct and delay.  

[SteamyAmerican]

From your listed source: 

• [i]American voters support the SAVE Act by 57% to 34%, with only 9% unsure.[/i]
  
• Republicans say the SAVE Act not passing the Senate shows a need to elect more Republicans (67%) rather than fatal party ineffectiveness (18%).
  

• Americans are sick of this. 
  

JB Pritzker Just Unmasked 1,700 Releases, and the Illinois detail gets even uglier. 

The Democrats are completely corrupt. And it is being quickly fixed by Trump and co. Democrats just obstruct and delay.  

“Fixed”?

You mean the guy that manipulates the markets to personally benefit himself and his ilk off the volatility of oil in a nation Where he started the fight?

And the guy that has made $2.2B off of crypto investments while tanking other investors?

That guy is gonna fix stuff? Okay…….

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

From your listed source:  

• [i]American voters support the SAVE Act by 57% to 34%, with only 9% unsure.[/i]
  
• Republicans say the SAVE Act not passing the Senate shows a need to elect more Republicans (67%) rather than fatal party ineffectiveness (18%).
  

• Americans are sick of this. 
  

JB Pritzker Just Unmasked 1,700 Releases, and the Illinois detail gets even uglier. 

The Democrats are completely corrupt. And it is being quickly fixed by Trump and co. Democrats just obstruct and delay.  

This isnt about the Save America Act. I just said it cant save him, mostly for the overwhelming (57%) and bipartisan support it has. Even though support is there, the war or immigration or economy offsets the favorability of it all.  

Even I support it "in principle"...

It needs work. Make people prove citizenship, good. But It doesn't do enough for married and divorced spouses (who are legal voters) if their name does not match their birth certificate and lack passport. Or other certificate/ID discrepancies.  Pretty much forces they get a US passport to avoid headaches at the polls. 

It goes too far to safeguard and doesn't adequately spell out the process for exemptions. Clean that up a little though.

Hypothetically, if Melanija Knavs were to divorce her husband she might have a hard time voting under this law (if she lost her US passport) because her Yugoslavian birth certificate does not match current identification or existing countries.

[Knows]

“Fixed”?

You mean the guy that manipulates the markets to personally benefit himself and his ilk off the volatility of oil in a nation Where he started the fight?

And the guy that has made $2.2B off of crypto investments while tanking other investors?

That guy is gonna fix stuff? Okay…….

Exactly how did he manipulate the markets to be put in his favor? And is it a crime to take crypto profits when they go up??

[DBCowboy]

Exactly how did he manipulate the markets to be put in his favor? And is it a crime to take crypto profits when they go up??

Only if a republican does it.

If it's a leftist?

Crickets.

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

Independents aren't going to vote for a party that supports communism.

Are you sure? No independent voter support communist ideas? Or ideas originated by Marx or wealth redistribution? 

So I am going to post this and its up to you figure out why you might be wrong..

Independent voters strongly support labor unions, with recent surveys showing about 67% to 69% of independents approve of organized labor. This support places them directly between Democrats (who overwhelmingly support unions) and Republicans (who are more split). [1, 2, 3, 4]

[DBCowboy]

Are you sure? No independent voter support communist ideas? Or ideas originated by Marx or wealth redistribution? 

So I am going to post this and its up to you figure out why you might be wrong..

I can admit when I'm wrong.  If people vote in communists, then I'll just join the resistance.  

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

I can admit when I'm wrong.  If people vote in communists, then I'll just join the resistance.  

Oh dont worry, you cant be wrong/right on this one.  Because even if democrats flip the house it wont be for socialists (or anything communist). Because safe districts rarely flip. And people too far left cant flip competitive districts. 

But I am retracting my statement Trump has low odds on the midterms. Quite the opposite upon doing math. So I will admit being wrong for now on that.

Current 

Republican - 218
Democrat - 212
Independent - 1
Vacant - 4

Of the 4 vacant (none are considered battground)
      • 3 lean democrat
      • 1 leans republican 
42 are considered battleground districts.
      • 20 are held by republicans 
      • 22 are held by democrats

Currently, of those 42:

20 are toss-ups (no lean)
14 lean democrat (currently)
8 lean republican (currently)

389 are considered safe incumbent districts.
Republican gained 10 net seats through redistricting.

Doing math fucked up my argument.

Math =

218 - 20 + 8 + 1 = 207
212 - 22  + 14 + 3 = 207

Republicans = 207
Democrats = 207
Independents = 1

That leaves the 20 toss-up districts to decide.

Trump may be the first president to defy the "below 50% 37 seat loss" average. 

Okay, thread drift failed. Carry on with the war stuff.