US-Iran War Mudpit Thread

[ANNEE]

Latest from the Silver Bulletin

Trump’s disapproval rating 57.1

That is the highest it’s ever been.

[Kwaka]

Trump could have just signaled to the no doubt other factions in Iran vying for control, we need to talk to a different monkey than this one.

For my take, if Trump does want to find someone to talk to in this mess, pay the $2M to get some ships out. With so much trust broken down, money does hold some common trust. If the ships get through without getting blown up, found someone in control of the straight. As for who is in control of the rest of the nation?

31 independent branches of the IRGC. All able to operate independently. All waiting for orders from the Supreme Leader to stand down. With that role put on hold, gonna take a while to turn this war machine off.

[putnam6]

My understanding is that your armed forces are geared towards and built around the possibility of having to contend with the likes of Russia and China simultaneously.

As to the silly NATO jibe, you might wanna change the bait... 

What's even more silly is to think ANY country would put its military in a 2 front war that could be delayed or avoided altogether

Even when the US is likely to be more effective fighting alone than trying to work with the 32-headed bloated dragon that is NATO

[Kurokage]

So Trump is always lying, but we believe Dimitri Medvedev? Makes no sense?



This could be part of the confusion... Trump is hearing through different sources at least a possibility, and it would definitely throw a monkey wrench into the fog of war.

Or, as somebody suggested on Discord, Trump could have just signaled to the no doubt other factions in Iran vying for control, we need to talk to a different monkey than this one.

Or Rubio and Trump are playing good cop, bad cop. Till they know for certain who they are talking to is the head cheese, numero uno Grand Poobah.

Or it could be an amalgamation of all possibilities

I think it's more like Trump and Medvedev are both great at lying and selling propaganda to their sheeple.  

As to the confusion with Rubio, Trump flip flops with his opinions that quickly that sometimes his government haven't caught up.

And as you've stated, there must be a few hardliners vying for control of the regime if the new Ayatollah is still out of action or dead.

[putnam6]

For my take, if Trump does want to find someone to talk to in this mess, pay the $2M to get some ships out. With so much trust broken down, money does hold some common trust. If the ships get through without getting blown up, found someone in control of the straight. As for who is in control of the rest of the nation?

31 independent branches of the IRGC. All able to operate independently. All waiting for orders from the Supreme Leader to stand down. With that role put on hold, gonna take a while to turn this war machine off.

If all 31 independent branches of the IRGC are operating at full strength...

That's a big IF

[NEWS],
Faytuks TranslatorRole icon, Staff Member
APP
— 12:58 PM
https://x.com/IsraelPersian/status/2038655422492479617

IsraelPersian
Since Friday, two thousand repressive forces have been killed in Iran. #RoarOfTheLions
Source
https://x.com/IsraelPersian/status/2038655422492479617
Translated from: Persian•Today at 12:31 PM

There are 31 independent branches of the IRGC. How many are at full strength, what's the likely condition one month in

Thought for 41s
None (or at most a very small handful) of the 31 IRGC provincial/territorial commands are likely at full strength one month into the ongoing US-Israeli campaign against Iran (as of late March 2026). Most are operating in a degraded state—reduced manpower, damaged infrastructure, supply shortages, and morale/leadership issues—but the “Mosaic Defense” (or “mosaic doctrine”) design allows them to continue limited, semi-autonomous operations.
Quick Background on the 31 Units
In 2008, the IRGC Ground Forces restructured into 31 provincial commands (one per province, with Tehran sometimes counted separately or as part of the system, totaling ~32 territorial commands in some descriptions). This was explicitly to create a decentralized “mosaic” of semi-independent units. Each has its own local command, intelligence, weapons stocks, logistics, and ability to operate without central direction from Tehran—precisely to survive decapitation strikes or invasion.
These are not the five main IRGC service branches (Ground Forces, Aerospace, Navy, Quds Force, Basij). They are the ground-level provincial corps (often called “divisions,” “provincial units,” or “operational bases” in reporting), designed for internal security, rapid local response, and sustained guerrilla/asymmetric fighting if higher command is wiped out.
Likely Condition ~1 Month In (Late March 2026)
The war began around Feb 28, 2026. By March 30 it is roughly one month old. Open-source reporting from ISW, Critical Threats Project, and others shows:
• Widespread but selective strikes on IRGC Ground Forces infrastructure: headquarters, operational bases, brigades, and divisions in multiple provinces (e.g., Esfahan/Saheb ol Zaman and 8th Najaf-e Ashraf Armored Division, Yazd/Al Ghadir Brigade, Kerman/41st Sarallah Division, Hamedan/Ansar ol Hossein Provincial Unit, East Azerbaijan, Hormozgan/Bandar Abbas, Ilam, Kermanshah, Lorestan missile-related sites, Fars, Bushehr, etc.). Satellite imagery and OSINT confirm physical damage to bases, hangars, and hardened structures.
• Leadership attrition: Numerous IRGC Ground Forces commanders and deputies killed (e.g., 41st Division commander, various brigade/provincial unit leaders). This is exactly what the mosaic system was built to mitigate—local commanders can still act independently.
• Manpower and sustainment problems:
• Recruitment crisis → IRGC lowered minimum age to 12 for some support roles.
• Failed reserve mobilization and reports of desertions/absenteeism.
• Supply shortages (food, equipment, communications gear) even in missile units.
• Low morale, burnout, and personnel refusing risky missions.
• Overall degradation: Iran’s missile/drone launch rates dropped dramatically early in the war (92%+ in the first 10 days) and continued to be hammered. Offensive capabilities are a fraction of pre-war levels; defensive air cover is largely gone. However, the decentralized structure prevents total paralysis—units can still conduct local security, limited harassment, or guerrilla-style actions.
Bottom line: “Full strength” (pre-war manning, equipment, supplies, and command cohesion) is almost certainly zero across the board for sustained high-intensity operations. A few remote or less-targeted provincial units might be closer to 70-80% capacity, but systemic issues (logistics, morale, spares) affect all of them. The mosaic doctrine is functioning as intended: the force is bloodied and fragmented but not destroyed, allowing continued low-level resistance even without central coordination.
Exact numbers per unit are not publicly tallied in open sources (they’re operational details), but the pattern from detailed strike reporting and Iranian regime admissions shows broad attrition rather than isolated intact units. The IRGC remains dangerous in an asymmetric/prolonged war sense, but it is far from the full-strength force it was on Feb 27.

[Kurokage]

Even when the US is likely to be more effective fighting alone than trying to work with the 32-headed bloated dragon that is NATO

[Image: https://denyignorance.com//images/addsmi...na-045.gif]

I think you're incorrect here.

In past U.S. battles, it doesn't tend do that well when it fights alone, with Vietnam and Korea as perfect examples. Both times they've had to withdraw.

ETA....

And now Trump is considering putting you into a similar ground battle with Iran that could drag on for months if not longer.

[Oldcarpy2]

I think you're incorrect here.

In past U.S. battles, it doesn't tend do that well when it fights alone, with Vietnam and Korea as perfect examples. Both times they've had to withdraw.

ETA....

And now Trump is considering putting you into a similar ground battle with Iran that could drag on for months if not longer.

As no Article of NATO's charter has been invoked or applies Trump and his acolytes can stop whining.

He didn't consult them before starting this War.

So he can get stuffed.

[cherokeetroy]

I think it's more like Trump and Medvedev are both great at lying and selling propaganda to their sheeple.  

Yes, it can easily be deduced that both are liars

In this instance (and I'm not a great translator), I think Medvedev's point is that as vital infrastructure continues being destroyed, the nuclear threat is amplified, not diminished

[putnam6]

I think you're incorrect here.

In past U.S. battles, it doesn't tend do that well when it fights alone, with Vietnam and Korea as perfect examples. Both times they've had to withdraw.

ETA....

And now Trump is considering putting you into a similar ground battle with Iran that could drag on for months if not longer.

Korea and Vietnam, yeah, and lets not forget the Brits burned the White House that one time. That could happen again too.

Im not ultrasensitive about the American military's history, you take the good with the bad.

My generation absolutely decimated Grenada, for example. so should I argue the since Grenada is closer to 2026 it's more representative of the the type of results that Vietnam and Korea would give us.

[andy06shake]

What's even more silly is to think ANY country would put its military in a 2 front war that could be delayed or avoided altogether

Even when the US is likely to be more effective fighting alone than trying to work with the 32-headed bloated dragon that is NATO

[Image: https://denyignorance.com//images/addsmi...na-045.gif]

I imagine the smart thing to do would be to resolve the situation.
 
Rather than fight any war...

A bit late for that now.

As for the US being more effective fighting alone, that's just nonsense.
 
Tell yourself that if you must, but you're ignoring history.

And I would not let Bibi hear you say that.
 
Anyhoo, Trump says you are "dealing with a very reasonable regime."

So it should all be over before Easter...