Trump says he bombed Iran

[putnam6]

They can be natural adversaries, and our policy in the region can be failed. Both can be true without saying all of it is the direct fault of the US.

One of the few things most Americans can agree on is that our foreign policy in the ME has been disastrous. That doesn’t mean it’s all our fault, they’d probably be fighting anyways. I just think it’s fair to admit maybe we’ve misread the region for many decades.

All im suggesting is that there is no nation-building component in Iran, hopefully we aren't backing anyone. "King" Rezi stopped following Trump right after Trump mentioned not wanting the chaos of regime change. It all could be subterfuge, and we would back him if he emerges as the leader organically instead of Uncle Sam-assisted.

[putnam6]

It makes a hell of a lot of sense for an international team to be assessing Fordow than for Iran to be poking around in clear view.

I'm just saying, they aren't gonna announce to the world what is actually going on. I wouldn't want to be standing around with a pick and shovel under air attack! I'm probably wrong though, just that IRGC is toast. 


btw- Paris is burning....
[Video: https://youtu.be/ZyyyDhdbPuc]

There has to be a good bit of chaos on the ground; the IDF was losing its military and nuclear leadership at an incredible rate.

It all is still so fluid...

[CriticalStinker]

All im suggesting is that there is no nation-building component in Iran, hopefully we aren't backing anyone. "King" Rezi stopped following Trump right after Trump mentioned not wanting the chaos of regime change. It all could be subterfuge, and we would back him if he emerges as the leader organically instead of Uncle Sam-assisted.

I sure hope we don’t do that. I think that would be an absolute mess. He’s the son of the Shah we installed which arguably lead to the revolution they had to install the current government.

Again, there’s no doubt they have an oppressive dictatorship. I imagine that most alternatives would be better for the Iranian people. But as you said, it would be better for the Iranians to organically replace their own government. I’d be shocked if he was the true choice given that he’s lived in the west most of his life. We tried a similar leader in Iraq with Ahmed Chalabi. 

I think one of the problems the US has in its foreign policy in the Middle East is our arrogance. We keep trying the same thing over and over expecting different results. 

I believe the biggest problem is that most Americans don’t view Iran as a place we need to focus on, much less a priority. There would be a lot of internal division on such a campaign, so if we can’t unify around it as a nation, how would we sell the region and Iran on such a mission? The powers that be have tried to sell us on this for decades, painting them as a direct and existential threat to the US. We’ve slowly been escalating against them, coming to direct blows on occasion in the last decade. Each time, they’ve chosen the off-ramp and warned us ahead of symbolic retaliation. That doesn’t seem to be inline with narrative that one of their top priorities is to cause the US death and destruction.

[putnam6]

I sure hope we don’t do that. I think that would be an absolute mess. He’s the son of the Shah we installed which arguably lead to the revolution they had to install the current government.

Again, there’s no doubt they have an oppressive dictatorship. I imagine that most alternatives would be better for the Iranian people. But as you said, it would be better for the Iranians to organically replace their own government. I’d be shocked if he was the true choice given that he’s lived in the west most of his life. We tried a similar leader in Iraq with Ahmed Chalabi. 

I think one of the problems the US has in its foreign policy in the Middle East is our arrogance. We keep trying the same thing over and over expecting different results. 

I believe the biggest problem is that most Americans don’t view Iran as a place we need to focus on, much less a priority. There would be a lot of internal division on such a campaign, so if we can’t unify around it as a nation, how would we sell the region and Iran on such a mission? The powers that be have tried to sell us on this for decades, painting them as a direct and existential threat to the US. We’ve slowly been escalating against them, coming to direct blows on occasion in the last decade. Each time, they’ve chosen the off-ramp and warned us ahead of symbolic retaliation. That doesn’t seem to be inline with narrative that one of their top priorities is to cause the US death and destruction.

LOL yeah I know who he is, Ive been plugged into the situation. This was covered earlier in the thread asking Grok the likely candidates if there is a regime change in Iran, it i again, plenty of bad apples in this bunch, Pahlavi may be less wormy and less militaristic. Ironically, a guy like the Democratic nominee for Mayor of New York, might be the best of a bad lot.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/WGiPrc9816KvmLtAfnSsTTjdN

Within the Current Theocratic System
If the Islamic Republic's structure remains intact, the Assembly of Experts would select a new Supreme Leader from among senior clerics, prioritizing loyalty to the revolutionary ideals of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and alignment with the regime's hardline ideology. Recent reports indicate Khamenei has named three senior clerics as potential successors to ensure a swift transition in case of his death, though their identities remain undisclosed. Below are some frequently mentioned candidates within the regime:

• Mojtaba Khamenei (Age: 56)
  • Background: The second son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba is a mid-ranking cleric with significant influence within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s clerical establishment. He has been involved in suppressing protests and manipulating elections to favor hardline candidates.
    
  • Strengths: His proximity to his father and the IRGC gives him considerable power and access to the regime’s inner circle. He is seen as a hardliner who would likely continue his father’s policies.
    
  • Challenges: His selection could provoke backlash due to perceptions of hereditary succession, which contradicts the Islamic Republic’s anti-monarchical principles. Critics, including reformist leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi, have targeted him for this reason. Some reports suggest he is not among Khamenei’s chosen successors.
    
• Hassan Khomeini (Age: 53)
  • Background: The grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, Hassan is a cleric with ties to the reformist faction. He was barred from running for the Assembly of Experts in 2016 due to his reformist leanings but retains respect among clerics and the IRGC because of his lineage.
    
  • Strengths: His reformist credentials and Khomeini name could make him a conciliatory choice, appealing to both domestic moderates and international actors seeking a less confrontational Iran. Analysts suggest he could facilitate a slow transition toward a less hardline regime.
    
  • Challenges: His exclusion from the regime’s upper echelons and reformist stance make him a less likely choice for hardliners in the Assembly of Experts.
    
• Alireza Arafi (Age: ~66)
  • Background: A senior cleric and trusted aide of Khamenei, Arafi serves as the deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a member of the Guardian Council, and the Friday prayer leader in Qom. He is deeply embedded in Iran’s religious and political structures.
    
  • Strengths: His extensive knowledge of Iran’s power structure and loyalty to Khamenei make him a strong candidate within the current system. His roles in key institutions give him influence and credibility.
    
  • Challenges: He lacks the black turban indicating descent from the Prophet Mohammad, a traditional qualification for the Supreme Leader, which could limit his appeal.
    
• Ali Larijani (Age: ~67)
  • Background: A former parliament speaker and member of a prominent clerical family in Qom, Larijani is a conservative with a pragmatic streak. He has held roles such as head of state broadcaster and member of the Expediency Council, and he maintains close ties to the IRGC and Khamenei.
    
  • Strengths: His experience in governance and reputation as a compromise candidate could make him appealing to both hardliners and moderates. His independence from the most extreme factions might stabilize the regime during a transition.
    
  • Challenges: His failure to secure a seat in the Assembly of Experts in recent elections suggests waning influence.
    
• Mohammad-Ali Movahedi Kermani (Age: 92)
  • Background: Elected chairman of the Assembly of Experts in 2024, Movahedi Kermani is a senior cleric and regime loyalist.
    
  • Strengths: His leadership in the Assembly of Experts positions him as a potential interim or compromise candidate, especially given his age and experience.
    
  • Challenges: At 92, his age makes him an unlikely long-term successor, and he may serve more as a transitional figure if chosen.
    

In Case of Regime Collapse
A complete fall of the Islamic Republic could lead to a power vacuum, with various groups competing for control. The outcome would depend on whether the transition is driven by internal forces (e.g., military coup, popular uprising) or external intervention (e.g., Israeli or U.S. actions). Below are potential contenders and scenarios outside the current theocratic framework:

• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
  • Role: The IRGC, with approximately 190,000 personnel, is a powerful military and political force loyal to the Islamic Republic’s ideology. If the clerical regime collapses, the IRGC could impose martial law or attempt to install a new Supreme Leader, possibly Mojtaba Khamenei or another loyalist.
    
  • Scenario: In a wartime scenario, the IRGC might establish a military-led government, prioritizing security and deterrence, potentially accelerating Iran’s nuclear program. Analysts warn this could lead to a more repressive, militarized state rather than a democratic one.
    
  • Challenges: The IRGC’s lack of broad public support and the deaths of key commanders (e.g., Hossein Salami, Amir Ali Hajizadeh) in recent Israeli strikes weaken its capacity to govern alone.
    
• Reza Pahlavi (Age: 65)
  • Background: The exiled Crown Prince and son of the last Shah, Reza Pahlavi lives in the U.S. and advocates for a non-violent transition to a secular, democratic Iran through a referendum. He claims Iran’s command structures are collapsing and has called for Iranians to “reclaim” their country.
    
  • Strengths: Pahlavi enjoys support among the Iranian diaspora and some secularists nostalgic for the pre-1979 monarchy. His international connections, particularly in the U.S., could bolster his influence.
    
  • Challenges: His association with the monarchy and lack of a strong, organized base inside Iran limit his appeal. Ethnic minorities, such as Kurds and Baloch, view him skeptically, fearing Persian dominance.
    
• Ethnic and Regional Opposition Groups
  • Background: Iran’s diverse population includes Persians, Azeris, Kurds, Baloch, and Arabs, many of whom face discrimination. Kurdish and Baloch groups have engaged in insurgencies, while Ahwazi Arabs and others seek greater autonomy.
    
  • Scenario: A regime collapse could embolden separatist movements, leading to fragmentation or civil war. Leaders like Aref Al-Kaabi of the Ahwazi community argue that trust-building between ethnic groups and the Persian opposition is essential for a unified transition.
    
  • Challenges: These groups lack unity and a centralized leadership structure. The IRGC has suppressed recent mobilization attempts, particularly in Ahwaz.
    
• Reformist and Protest Movements
  • Background: Figures like Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi led the Green Movement in 2009, advocating democratic reforms within the Islamic Republic. Both have been under house arrest since. The 2022 protests, sparked by Mahsa Amini’s death, showed widespread public discontent but lacked cohesive leadership.
    
  • Scenario: A popular uprising could elevate reformist or secular figures, but the opposition’s fragmentation and the regime’s brutal suppression of dissent make this unlikely without external support.
    
  • Challenges: The opposition is divided, with no clear leader or organization capable of governing post-collapse. Exile groups, like the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, oppose foreign intervention and want Iranians to determine their future.
    

Key Considerations

• Regime Resilience: Iran’s state is structured for survival, with a dual military (Artesh and IRGC) and the Basij paramilitary network embedded in society. Even if Khamenei is killed, the system is designed to regenerate leadership, making a total collapse less likely without sustained internal or external pressure.
  
• Risk of Chaos: A regime fall without a clear successor could lead to civil war, with ethnic groups, the IRGC, and opposition factions competing for power. Analysts warn of outcomes similar to post-2003 Iraq or post-2011 Libya, with destabilizing effects across the Middle East.
  
• External Influence: Israeli and U.S. actions, including strikes on Iran’s military and nuclear facilities, could weaken the regime but risk galvanizing hardline factions or pushing Iran toward nuclear weaponization. Both Reza Pahlavi and groups like Komala oppose foreign-engineered regime change, fearing it would undermine legitimacy.
  

Conclusion
Within the Islamic Republic’s framework, Mojtaba Khamenei, Hassan Khomeini, Alireza Arafi, and Ali Larijani are among the top contenders to succeed Ayatollah Khamenei, with the Assembly of Experts favoring hardline loyalists. If the regime collapses entirely, the IRGC could seize power, or figures like Reza Pahlavi might attempt to lead a secular transition, though their success is uncertain due to internal divisions and ethnic tensions. The lack of a unified opposition and the regime’s robust security apparatus suggest that any transition would be fraught with challenges, potentially leading to chaos rather than democracy.

AGAIN, Trump specifically said he didn't want the chaos of regime change, but are we not supposed to semi-welcome whoever the Iranians do legitimately back? You know peace in the region? 

Whoever is in power, probably a hardline military junta, is already disappearing real and probably imagined opponents.
The Kurds are already getting disappeared, how is that better than Pahlavi? who supposedly wants to move towards a referendum on what governance the Iranian people want, again supposedly.

Regardless isn't a semi friendly Shah Pahlavi better than a western hate filled military junta, with missiles and a half crippled nuclear program?

[CriticalStinker]

Regardless isn't a semi friendly Shah Pahlavi better than a western hate filled military junta, with missiles and a half crippled nuclear program?

Im not sure it would actually have an impact on me.

Is my life different in a beneficial way after we removed Saddam? I don’t think so. Personally I feel as if it cost more than anything else. I can’t really think of one positive. I’m not even sure if the average Iraqi is better off.

Maybe Iran would be different, but I guess I struggle at identifying what part of the gamble is the reward. There sure is a lot of risk, but I don’t see what would be the reward for the American people.

And while I don’t think we’d find very many people at all who would argue the Iranian people are being oppressed, we can make that same argument for a slew of nations. Many of which don’t even make it into our media, they’re not a thought on our minds. And that’s because the foreign policy isn’t driven out of altruism. We don’t pick and choose what nations to “help” based on the level of oppression inflicted on their citizens. It’s driven by “American Interest”, which sounds like the interests of all the American people, but in reality it’s for the elites.

Thats not a new sentiment, and it’s not unpatriotic either. This is a sentiment that all anti establishment voters have echoed for decades now. It hasn’t been a secret that Iran was one of the last dominos for the neocons in the left and the right. Unfortunately, it’s just being normalized again.

[putnam6]

Im not sure it would actually have an impact on me.

Is my life different in a beneficial way after we removed Saddam? I don’t think so. Personally I feel as if it cost more than anything else. I can’t really think of one positive. I’m not even sure if the average Iraqi is better off.

Maybe Iran would be different, but I guess I struggle at identifying what part of the gamble is the reward. There sure is a lot of risk, but I don’t see what would be the reward for the American people.

And while I don’t think we’d find very many people at all who would argue the Iranian people are being oppressed, we can make that same argument for a slew of nations. Many of which don’t even make it into our media, they’re not a thought on our minds. And that’s because the foreign policy isn’t driven out of altruism. We don’t pick and choose what nations to “help” based on the level of oppression inflicted on their citizens. It’s driven by “American Interest”, which sounds like the interests of all the American people, but in reality it’s for the elites.

Thats not a new sentiment, and it’s not unpatriotic either. This is a sentiment that all anti establishment voters have echoed for decades now. It hasn’t been a secret that Iran was one of the last dominos for the neocons in the left and the right. Unfortunately, it’s just being normalized again.

 Im not suggesting it impacts me either. This isn't online psychotherapy, is it? It's a thread related to Iran, it's a topic Im interested in. Im not flushed with patriotic fervor either, I was against American involvement if Trump gets a more manageable Iran out of this Ill be amazed 

Personally, Im interested for several reasons. I remember the hostage crisis, watched late-night news on it most every night on my 13-inch TV. If we could have normalized relations between Iran, Israel, and much of the Middle East would be historic AF. It's unlikely, but just a chance is pretty cool. First time in my lifetime

Im discussing what may happen in Iran, concerning it's probably better for the world in general if Iran isn't firing 600 plus missiles at Israel every year. It's just common-sense logic

Below is a tad historic, don't you think?

Osint613
WATCH: Israel is seeking normalization with Syria and Lebanon, according to Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, as reported by i24NEWS. He noted that any agreement would include Syrian recognition of the Golan Heights as part of Israel.
Source
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1939632969791963372
Media extracted by FaytuksBot•Today at 6:31 AM

[putnam6]

And this is a bit ominous

Osint613
NEW  The Iranian rial is in freefall, with the dollar now commanding 900,900 rials on the open market, a brutal sign of the regime’s economic collapse.
Source
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1939649679446225100
Media extracted by FaytuksBot•Today at 7:38 AM


IsraelPersian
Quote from: IranIntl
Yahya Rahim Safavi, an assistant and senior adviser to Ali Khamenei, said in a recent statement that "the death of Israel and Netanyahu is approaching." Translated from: Persian
Source
https://x.com/IsraelPersian/status/1939711771457003766
Translated from: Persian•Today at 11:44 AM

[putnam6]

Global Telegram
In the early morning, the following things occurred in Tehran:
Assassination at the Iranian Basga Intelligence Officer in Tehran
Assassination in three security personnel in the east of Tehran

Translated from: Hebrew


Fox News (@FoxNews)
Exiled Iranian prince tells Trump he can be 'one of history's great peacemakers' amid talk of regime change https://t.co/jT97qOAFnk
X•Today at 10:50 AM

[IDELB2006]

And this is a bit ominous

Osint613
NEW  The Iranian rial is in freefall, with the dollar now commanding 900,900 rials on the open market, a brutal sign of the regime’s economic collapse.
Source
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1939649679446225100
Media extracted by FaytuksBot•Today at 7:38 AM

The Google has it at 42125 about 20 times diference.

Link

[sahgwa]

 Im not suggesting it impacts me either. This isn't online psychotherapy, is it? It's a thread related to Iran, it's a topic Im interested in. Im not flushed with patriotic fervor either, I was against American involvement if Trump gets a more manageable Iran out of this Ill be amazed 

Personally, Im interested for several reasons. I remember the hostage crisis, watched late-night news on it most every night on my 13-inch TV. If we could have normalized relations between Iran, Israel, and much of the Middle East would be historic AF. It's unlikely, but just a chance is pretty cool. First time in my lifetime

Im discussing what may happen in Iran, concerning it's probably better for the world in general if Iran isn't firing 600 plus missiles at Israel every year. It's just common-sense logic

Below is a tad historic, don't you think?

[Image: https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/exte...00x200.jpg]Osint613
WATCH: Israel is seeking normalization with Syria and Lebanon, according to Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, as reported by i24NEWS. He noted that any agreement would include Syrian recognition of the Golan Heights as part of Israel.
Source
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1939632969791963372
Media extracted by FaytuksBot•Today at 6:31 AM

My subconscious was wondering when Syria would be added-on to this 'upgrade' in the Middle East. Since 'we' already deposed their dictator and they have a 'free' state now made up of militants n stuff , we can soon add Iran and Syria to the collection box.  Then Israel can squeeze a little closer in for a big hug. 

This is a good article

https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/02/14/t...in-moscow/
 The Russians were keen to emphasize that Assad hasn't met with Vladimir Putin since arriving in Moscow, nor is such a meeting expected. The Russian president isn't exactly eager to be seen with someone who, like Yanukovych, lost control of his country and thus acquired a loser's image. Bashar will need to forget about politics and summit meetings with leaders, but Moscow has no shortage of power players who would gladly collaborate with him in business. The money he brought from Syria's coffers will speak volumes.
"Alexander Yanukovych, the son, was considered wealthy even before their flight from Ukraine, but when they arrived in Russia out of necessity, his businesses began flourishing even more," the journalist clarified. "Despite Western sanctions imposed on him, as they were on Assad Jr., Yanukovych's heir manages to circumvent them, and his controlled companies supply coal to EU countries. Recently it was reported that he's selling coal from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories to Turkey, and from there to additional destinations. While the Yanukovychs have always dealt in coal, and the Assad family is light-years away from coal business, Bashar and his children will likely find business channels close to their hearts. Moscow provides countless tempting opportunities for people like them: flush with cash, connected to the Kremlin, and without a homeland."