Oh I found the draft, it was in response to Idelb2006
(07-06-2026, 03:12 AM)IDELB2006 Wrote: When do you expect the robot invasion of Iran?
Trump has been trying to wind the conflict down for months, and the invasion of Qeshm you describe sounds kinda futuristic. We could be decades away from that capability.
No, the capabilities are already here, today. Thermobaric bombs are in our arsenal and have been since WW2. The fiber optic drones are just normal drones with a big spool of fiber wire. I have repeatedly shown the consequences of these in Lebanon and Ukraine in the form of spider web environments and the inability to be jammed by electronic means. You really trying to sell that we are a decade away from producing ... what? The fiber spools or the drones themselves? The bi-pedal robots are also being produced 'en masse. I suspect there is a reason they have not hit the civilian market this year as they were supposed to here in the states in 2026. But I admit that could only be my speculation. However, we have been producing the quad legged robots for over a decade already, and are currently deployed within the branches of the armed services as well as in the inventory of many Private Military contractors and corporations. Where is this supposed lag in production?? There is a major drone production facility only thirty minutes from me and they produce drones for military procurement exclusively. That is only one facility in the USA among scores, and many more in partner nations. The close in weapons systems I linked up there have also been around for decades and are already in land portable systems.
The future showed up while everyone was yelling at each other about the Orange man for the last ten years. The facts are all those existing systems and imminent drone procurement are in the here and now. I believe the disconnect in capabilities is the understanding of the timeline for the advanced interceptors for THAAD and PATRIOTS as well as the ATACMS for MLRS and HIMARS interchangeable pods. Yes those advanced systems are on a 1-4 year replacement schedule, but admittedly are a bit dated for current conflict. Refer to the cited anti-drone capabilities in my previous reply. Those are not 2 years out. They are like six to eighteen months tops for continual line production.
We still have inventory though, and they still work. Regarding JASSM, we have done so much damage to primary military infrastructure we do not really need to continue expending those anymore. We still have a plethora of
AGM-65's, the most widely produced guided missile ever, as well as a
significant arsenal fielded by the Navy which are perfectly and sufficiently suited for the level of conflict that is impending with the air frames and naval capacity to deliver them. We no longer need to expend JASSM as the most highly valuable targets that would require that low observable stealthy delivery have already been extinguished. What pops up in retaliation such as these Hormuz blips can easily be dealt with by the same stuff we use to hit targets in the deserts of Iraq, Syria and Somalia. I bet we will use more JASSM's as specific targets expose themselves to launch retaliatory strikes, but doubtful in any quantities required that the older existing systems which were hardly expended and are typically used in less defensive skies (now a reality in Iran) can deal with.
We have a high volume of existing ordnance, the media and think tanks have only really been harping on about the most advanced modernized ones for shock value and likely as an intentional psychological effect on the orders of our rivals. I am beginning to cast doubt on the mined waterways as many tankers have turned their transponders off and travelling dark outside of the Iranian routes. No mine impacts to date, and all detonations seem to have originated from missile and drone attacks.
Ebb and flow has always been the natural progression of wars throughout history, we are simply returning to that synergy. Just because we no longer maintain outright technological dominance does not mean we have run out of warfighting capabilities in the 21st century. I think it simply means other rival states have finally caught up to us, and we are back to being forced to sacrifice some real blood, steel and meat to achieve the goals. Crazy how cinema brings the concept to the masses ahead of time though... I never thought I would be defending this kind of deployment back then, yet here I am now.
