Trump says he bombed Iran

[EXETER]

...
In reality, I doubt Trump would stand up to China if they decided to take Taiwan. I noticed the May meeting with Xi was less about trade, and more to do with Taiwan. I'm sure Xi let Trump know that his latest excursions into Venezuela, and Iran made China more interested in taking Taiwan, and there is little we could do about it.
....

It's not true that there is little we could do about it.  We could stop it.  We've been designing and building systems for exactly this purpose ever since before the first Trump administration.  The B-21.  Hypersonic attack missiles. Stealthy long-range cruise missiles.  The F-47. We started building up our forward basing options during the Biden administration (Guam, Japan, Philippines, Australia). 

We could prevent China from taking Taiwan.  But it would be bloody.  It wouldn't be like Iran, because China could and would fight back, hard.  Most of the war game exercises I've read about show a high statistical probability of China not being able to achieve its goals. 

But it would be bloody and expensive for all 3 participants.

It's not a question of whether we could do something about it, it's a question of would Trump do something about it.  And if he did, would he win?  Based on the fact that he can't successfully refurbish a reflecting pool in the Capital, I wouldn't have high hopes.

[Astyanax]

The B-21.  Hypersonic attack missiles. Stealthy long-range cruise missiles.  The F-47.

Boondoggles, man. IDELB2006 already explained this to you:
 

IDELB2006: a bloated system for donating money to the MIC

Wars among nation-states – the kind of war that demands such munitions – are obsolete, at least in this cycle of civilization. Try to prosecute one nowadays and you end up where Russia finds itself: bogged down and helpless while the locals run rings round you with cheap drones, small arms and pickup trucks. Meanwhile, Trump and Netanyahu’s punt against Iran has proven the equal impotence of standoff attacks. Turns out you can’t win wars without taking casualties, however advanced your technology. You have to pay the asking price in blood.

I wouldn’t want to overestimate the Chinese, but I’m pretty sure their leaders understand this. China will never invade Taiwan; that’s just another American bogey, invented to scare more money out of your taxpayers.

Xi & Co will reacquire Taiwan only when they can do so without facing the dangers of asymmetrical warfare and an Iraq-style quagmire. As American power slowly collapses, it will find this relatively easy to do; without the US umbrella (which is imaginary in any case), most Taiwanese will see where safety and personal interest lie and opt for Chinese hegemony.

A basic lesson the West cannot seem to learn: one suicide bomber who has vowed to die for the cause is a vastly more efficient and capable ordnance-delivery mechanism than a B-21. Costs a whole lot less too, and can be produced in unlimited numbers using unskilled labour.

The days of buying expensive toys with taxpayers’ money are over.

[worldstarcountry]

That is precisely why the procurement system is switching to the same cheaper technology. You act as if we cannot adapt? It is already happening. It kind of sounds like you wish to see the American  military might fall, but I assure you no such thing is going to happen. There is ebb and flow, ebb and flow. Many wars were like this prior to the USA achieving technological dominance in the 20th century. The problem was the entrenched parasites that took over the system as a result of that dominance got greedy and lazy and failed to adapt. The new leadership is now adapting. This theater will continue for some time in an ebb and flow fashion.

Iran had my sympathy until they started striking tankers after the MOU, and then everyone tried to characterize the USA as having violated the agreement. Excuse us, but it was Iran that admitted to striking the tankers for refusing its preferred route closer to its own coastline so it can justify  collecting tolls. I now look forward to the video feeds from the robots that will tunnel rat out the underground missile cities of Qeshm. We can also blast the doors open and begin sending in thermobaric explosives. The sucking out of oxygen will rip peoples organs out that arent even near the blast from the vacuum just as they did in Afghan caves. This is old tech btw, originating from WW2. Not to mention, we can produce Fiber Optic drones on the fly. Once those blast doors and thermobaric have done their carnage to open access, the ground forces stationed outside can fly in wave after wave of Fiber Optic drones, just as Hezbollah uses in Lebanon or Russia in Ukraine. JAM proof, cheap, and easily mass produced. The C-RAM's have a land mobile version not limited to naval ships, all we need to do is keep feeding it a f*** ton of lead.

I suppose we can just spare Kharg island in the meantime while we land on Qeshm. With the development of new anti-drone technology using lasers, and counter-drone drones being proven in Ukraine with Japanese and European partnerships; if we want those islands, we are getting those islands. The only way Iran wins this is if aliens/ET are involved (jellyfish drones?) or the Creator itself decides to directly intervene with the hand of providence. That is the only way.

Did you forget there was a point in WW2 when the Germans were winning ... ebb and flow...

But if God or aliens do decide to up the ante, I guess I will have to grovel for forgiveness. I just have a hard time seeing this be the point where either party decides to finally openly interfere in human matters. I mean we have come this far, why would 21st century Persia be the red line?

[IDELB2006]

The problem was the entrenched parasites that took over the system as a result of that dominance got greedy and lazy and failed to adapt. The new leadership is now adapting. This theater will continue for some time in an ebb and flow fashion.

I'm just not seeing a reduction in graft this term. Especially with Trump clearing close to $2 billion last year.

 I now look forward to the video feeds from the robots that will tunnel rat out the underground missile cities of Qeshm. We can also blast the doors open and begin sending in thermobaric explosives. The sucking out of oxygen will rip peoples organs out that arent even near the blast from the vacuum just as they did in Afghan caves. This is old tech btw, originating from WW2. Not to mention, we can produce Fiber Optic drones on the fly. Once those blast doors and thermobaric have done their carnage to open access, the ground forces stationed outside can fly in wave after wave of Fiber Optic drones, just as Hezbollah uses in Lebanon or Russia in Ukraine. JAM proof, cheap, and easily mass produced. The C-RAM's have a land mobile version not limited to naval ships, all we need to do is keep feeding it a f*** ton of lead.

I suppose we can just spare Kharg island in the meantime while we land on Qeshm. With the development of new anti-drone technology using lasers, and counter-drone drones being proven in Ukraine with Japanese and European partnerships; if we want those islands, we are getting those islands. The only way Iran wins this is if aliens/ET are involved (jellyfish drones?) or the Creator itself decides to directly intervene with the hand of providence. That is the only way.
 

When do you expect the robot invasion of Iran?
Trump has been trying to wind the conflict down for months, and the invasion of Qeshm you describe sounds kinda futuristic. We could be decades away from that capability.

[govshill2]

They never saw anything like it!    

Mourners throng funeral procession in Tehran for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei   

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Mourners dressed in black flooded into Iran’s capital Monday for a procession as part of the funeral of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with throngs of people calling for the death of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Khamenei’s flag-draped coffin, and those of members of his family killed Feb. 28 in an airstrike at the start of the war launched by Israel and the United States, sat on board a truck decorated to resemble the ornamental grating that surrounds the shrine of an imam. The massive turnout, encouraged by Iran’s theocracy as a sign of strength, came as it negotiates with the U.S. over a permanent end to the war.

Helicopter images aired on Iranian state television showed a massive crowd stretching from Tehran’s Azadi, or Freedom, Square for kilometers (miles) down a multilane street of the same name. The crowd appeared to be larger than the one that turned out for the 2020 procession for the late Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani, which drew over 1 million people.

[Astyanax]

They never saw anything like it!    

Mourners throng funeral procession in Tehran for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei   

Indeed. So, Iranian people not so ripe for revolt after all, eh?

I suppose it’s a victory celebration just as much as it’s a funeral.

[quintessentone]

Indeed. So, Iranian people not so ripe for revolt after all, eh?

I suppose it’s a victory celebration just as much as it’s a funeral.

With the regime and the U.S./Israel and other players not considering the Iranian people's needs at all, I think it is difficult for the world to know exactly how the Iranian people feel, especially with the communication blackouts there.

-----

"Amid a tentative cease-fire, the Iranian people are likely wondering what their country’s future holds. Despite Trump’s and Netanyahu’s calls for Iranians to rise up and overthrow the regime, the United States and Israel are creating conditions that make it difficult for anti-regime Iranians to organize, prevail, and ultimately build a new government system. The danger is growing that this situation will stoke Iranians’ anger at Trump and Netanyahu, as it becomes increasingly clear that neither is the savior from the regime that many Iranians hoped they would be. Instead, many in Iran may conclude, US and Israeli bombs offer Iranians not liberation but only more death and suffering."

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatch...w-the-war/

 "What happens after the war endsIf the United States abandons Iranians to face a recalcitrant and enraged regime, then the Iranian people will likely face unimaginable retribution by the remnants of the Islamic Republic. A wounded but surviving Islamic Republic may also be motivated to race toward acquiring a nuclear weapon to deter future foreign attacks, thus locking the Iranian people even more firmly behind a theocratic wall. For Trump, who in early January highlighted Iranians’ suffering at the hands of the regime as a rationale for US military action, this would mark a failure. 
 
To avoid such a failure, the Trump administration should quickly land on a coherent plan for the war and its aftermath that takes the Iranian people into account. In addition, the US Congress, the American people, and the international community should insist that the White House commit both to protecting the Iranian people’s human rights and to providing them meaningful assistance in building a democracy. 
 
The United States cutting a deal with the Islamic Republic and then walking away would be disastrous not only for US interests and Middle East security, but also—and foremost—for ordinary Iranians. It is time to listen to what ordinary Iranians want, for everyone’s sake. "

[bastion]

Snip

Worth noting that the regime also used the internet blackout and conflict to launch a massive crackdown/arbitrary arrests of independent journalists and non-regime run media outlets. The actions have made it impossible for anti-regime protests or awareness of 'morality police' brutality and killings to spread internally or internationally in the future.

The regime is even more brutal and has a much stronger grip on power than before the war as most opposition figures were killed in the first few weeks. Persians are unlikely to be as pro-Western as they were due to US openly using them as pawns and regular comments about wiping out civilisations for cheap political gain and headlines to distract from the fact they had no strategy and all intel was clear that only boots on the group can overthrow regime or secure nuclear material.

CPJ - Press freedom violations in Iran war

RSF - War in Iran journalism crisis

[worldstarcountry]

damn, I had a fairly good draft saved explaining how we do not need the most advanced weapons anymore , the timelines for existing systems production vs the advanced systems we used to initially take out the most important targets, a nice battle plan for taking Qeshm using these existing systems and the high number of older missiles that are perfectly effective for the environment that now exists with regard to Iran's defensive capabilities over its airspace, the existing robotics already in service , the problem of the alleged mines in the Straight, inventory numbers for  the older missiles sitting in the thousands all over the world in our own inventory as well as partner nations (not JASMS, ATACMS, Patriots or THAAD interceptors, just the good 'ol Guf War 1 and prior systems that  are still around in many  inventories and many with upgraded navigation) and a bit more.

For whatever reason it did not save, and there was a lot of sourcing in it. Perhaps that was the universe trying to re-direct me against the war path of domination. I suppose I temporarily slipped into a dark space, my bad. But at the same time, Iran should not be trying to shoot at tankers along the Omani coastline in a demand that they cross the Iranian coastline so tolls can be levied. And, if they actually had many mines in the water, why then the need for a missile strike from the coast?? That  is something to ponder about.

Maybe Oman needs a new government as well? Or at least a better understanding of power dynamics? tsk tsk, I just cannot seem to tamper down that negative frequency, it just keeps slipping through. Perhaps it is better to go with carrot instead of stick. How can we convince them to not cooperate with Iran's toll levy?? With Iran we can just keep bombing them whenever they think they are going to hit a ship to force a route change to levy their toll. 

Maybe a little pressure/incentive from familiar partners the UK and India can help? They are a Sultanate like all the other Gulf states. Whatever, we got missiles, drones, robotics, air superiority, cyber capabilities. Every instance of toll levying can simply be met with a kinetic responses. And perhaps rightly so?? Eventually the cost benefit ratio of unending lost missile systems and naval assets will make them stop. We are  the USA, very hard headed and stubborn, but with the might to back it. It may not be wise to try and play skull thump with us, eventually the smaller guys head is going to crack open. This scene from GOT seems like a good metaphor.

[worldstarcountry]

Now you see, this is the kind of crap that deserves and will get a kinetic response.

Per CBS, at least three ships in the Strait appeared to come under attack. One of the ships was a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker that caught fire, risking an explosion. A second Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker was also targeted by a missile, and a third unidentified ship was hit by a drone.

Audio obtained by Fox earlier shows the Iranian Navy threatening one of the ships.
“This is the last warning, this is last warning, this is last warning. You are all in danger. Don’t put your life in danger. You are ordered to alter course. Do so immediately, alter course, do so immediately, and use the south of Larak Island. If you disobey, you will be targeted. Navy out,” the Iranians said before reportedly attacking.

As they continue to expose and have their assets destroyed, we can find their caves and target  with thermobaric bombs. The vacuum effect will destroy the folks deep inside no matter their proximity to the blast zone. The visuals of organs evacuated through orifices should be quite the traumatizing mind fuck.