Trump says he bombed Iran

[govshill2]

Prove it.

Hard to show proof without showing it from other sites that are not allowed here.

A Bing Search may have some insight.

The questions themselves and the positions are rigged and slanted.

Binge Search ....... gamble

[govshill2]

Razor likes this post.

+2   

[govshill2]

Like.

by3   ​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​what's wrong with the programming?

[EXETER]

.....

If they wanted to get weapons grade, it doesn't take years.

They are currently at 60% of weapons grade and according to the US and Israeli threat assessments, they suggested that Iran could get from 60% to 90% in two weeks.

From my calculations that should mean at that rate they should be able to go from 0% to 100% in 6.6 weeks, and yet it has been years, just to get to 60%?

Hmmm.....



The people who had expertise to know, and who have been directly observing Iran's facilities, have published that they weren't trying to get nukes.
.......

A couple of things here:

1) Uranium enrichment does not proceed at a constant, linear rate.  It proceeds at a more-or-less geometric rate.  For example, natural uranium as you dig it out of the ground consists of 0.7% U235 (the fissionable isotope).  To double the enrichment to 1.4% will take a given amount of time that depends on how good your enrichment technology is (gas diffusion, centrifugation, etc.) To double that again to 2.8% will take about the same amount of time, everything else being equal, and so on.  That means that to go from 30% enrichment to 60% takes about the same amount of time as to go from 0.7% to 1.4%.  The other factor is that as you increase the level of enrichment you also have to handle less total material in order to get to weapons grade.  That means that either you need fewer centrifuges or you can use the ones you have with greater throughput.  In other words, the enrichment process goes very slowly at first and then speeds up very rapidly.  When uranium is enriched to 20%, you've done about 90% of the work to take it to weapons grade.  From that point on, it may take only a few weeks to continue enriching it to weapons grade.  

When Obama negotiated the JCPOA in 2015, Iran had a stockpile of 20% enriched uranium.  The 20% enrichment level is the highest level of enrichment for which there are legitimate research and medical uses.  The JCPOA agreement required Iran to get rid of 98% of their enriched uranium by shipping it out of the country, which they did and it was verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency.  That left only a small amount in the country which was legitimate for research and medical purposes, but not enough to enrich into a weapon.  In other words, Iran went from 90% of the way to weapons material to effectively zero percent overnight, as a result of the JCPOA.  That's what Obama paid Iran the $1.7 Billion for.

2) Uranium is typically enriched by first reacting it with Fluorine gas to produce Uranium Hexaflouride (UF6), then heating that compound until it goes from solid to gas phase, and then running the UF6 gas  through the centrifuges.  Once the UF6 gets to the desired level of enrichment for weapons grade, the fluorine has to be driven off to yield metallic uranium.  That requires a multi-step process which requires transporting the UF6 to what amounts to a specialized metal foundry, reducing it back to metallic form, and then carefully machining the metal into the correct shapes for a bomb.  All while making sure than not enough of the metal accumulates in any one spot capable of causing a criticality accident.  When the intelligence agencies say that Iran was not trying to make nuclear weapons, they mean that they had not detected any efforts to transport the UF6 to their facilities where they could turn the UF6 into metal. 

There's no question that Iran has both the knowledge and facilities to produce nuclear bomb cores.  They just haven't made that dash to convert the UF6 to uranium metal.

[BeyondKnowledge]

by3   ​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​what's wrong with the programming?

I thought we were encouraged to make meaningful  replies of at least a couple of lines. Removing the like button encourages very many replies of very few words. This will make the threads longer, harder to read and artificially inflate post counts.

Is that what was planned by the change?

Edit: I also find it strange that we have drifted from current events to the point of being demotavited to starting threads. I thought of making a thread on the latest SpaceX starship flight but now no one is bothering with things like that. Then again, nether is it showing up on the news very much if at all.

[govshill2]

North Korea threatened to launch nuclear weapons into the US.

It is clear, now, that it was just brinkmanship and that no-one wants a nuclear conflict. But they did make the threat and they have the kit to carry it off.


If they wanted to get weapons grade, it doesn't take years.

They are currently at 60% of weapons grade and according to the US and Israeli threat assessments, they suggested that Iran could get from 60% to 90% in two weeks.

From my calculations that should mean at that rate they should be able to go from 0% to 100% in 6.6 weeks, and yet it has been years, just to get to 60%?

Hmmm.....

[Video: https://youtu.be/es3gwbhxz6w]

- Compare that to New York.


The people who had expertise to know, and who have been directly observing Iran's facilities, have published that they weren't trying to get nukes.

And we have heard the 'intelligence sources' tell us there were WMD's in Iraq, too, when there weren't.

How many times do you have to get lied to until the penny drops?


The USSR did grab a fair bit if territory, expanding its borders, after WWII, but some of those territories were directly fought over and liberated from the Nazi's, by the Commies.


You say it was better, but the USSR ended, without violence or war, by the will of its people. And yeah, that led to weakness to allow a dictator to assume office there...

I see similarities to that happening right now in the USA. You seem to assuming that the US are the good guys, but I'm seeing millions of homeless, poor and incarcerated there, with untouchable super-rich and powerful.

Are the US really the good guys?

Good bet Iran has/HAD loads of enriched U from Russia along with some extra help getting armed missile heads with nuke power!!  Why else would the U.S. have attacked so suddenly and with the extreme force we saw on both big attacks.   Most of it gone now MAYBE.  U.S. & Israeli INTEL knows the WHOLE picture and every detail.  

Not really that hard to figure is it.

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

Good bet Iran has/HAD loads of enriched U from Russia along with some extra help getting armed missile heads with nuke power!!  Why else would the U.S. have attacked so suddenly and with the extreme force we saw on both big attacks.   Most of it gone now MAYBE.  U.S. & Israeli INTEL knows the WHOLE picture and every detail.  

Not really that hard to figure is it.

[Image: https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc.../giphy.gif]

We attacked Iran for 440 kg of 60% enriched Uranium below weapons grade of 90%

But if you've ever read about the enrichment process, at 60% it is 4 to 5 weeks away from a working bomb.  It may even be they deliberately ONLY enriched it to 60% threshold for this exact reason. 

To be always easily "almost there". As close to having a shit load of nukes, without actually having a shitload of nukes, as possible. 

Exponential Concentration: Uranium enrichment involves removing the heavier, unwanted Uranium-238 isotope. By the time a stockpile is 60% enriched, the bulk of the "heavy" uranium has already been filtered out. There is very little material left to separate, vastly reducing the time and centrifuge capacity needed to cross the weapons-grade threshold.

Cascading Centrifuge Efficiency: Centrifuge facilities generally operate in "cascades," where the enrichment is done in stages (e.g., from natural to 5%, from 5% to 20% and from 20% to 60% Once the infrastructure is set up, re-routing the 60% material through the final centrifuge stages to reach 90% requires relatively minimal mechanical effort.

You dont enrich 440 kg, to ONLY 60% for nothin', right? Not like it is the top of their enrichment ability, or they hit their plateau to make it weapons grade. 

The primary misconception parroted by most is this was AN EMERGING THREAT, and they weren't 4 to 5 weeks away from a bomb since 2020-2021.

In 2021 they had 10 kg
In 2023 they had 100kg
In Late February 2026 they had 440kg.

So they are definitely refining a lot to be 4 to 5 weeks away, and if Trump was more direct and science-based about the urgency of their stockpiling, maybe there wouldn't be such criticism for going in over nukes.

* freaking autocorrect typos

[IDELB2006]

Trump is mulling of the latest deal from Iran.

 "I think one of two things will happen: either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good," Trump said.

Hes 50/50

Link

[bastion]

A couple of things here:

1) Uranium enrichment does not proceed at a constant, linear rate.  It proceeds at a more-or-less geometric rate.  For example, natural uranium as you dig it out of the ground consists of 0.7% U235 (the fissionable isotope).  To double the enrichment to 1.4% will take a given amount of time that depends on how good your enrichment technology is (gas diffusion, centrifugation, etc.) To double that again to 2.8% will take about the same amount of time, everything else being equal, and so on.  That means that to go from 30% enrichment to 60% takes about the same amount of time as to go from 0.7% to 1.4%.  The other factor is that as you increase the level of enrichment you also have to handle less total material in order to get to weapons grade.  That means that either you need fewer centrifuges or you can use the ones you have with greater throughput.  In other words, the enrichment process goes very slowly at first and then speeds up very rapidly.  When uranium is enriched to 20%, you've done about 90% of the work to take it to weapons grade.  From that point on, it may take only a few weeks to continue enriching it to weapons grade.  

When Obama negotiated the JCPOA in 2015, Iran had a stockpile of 20% enriched uranium.  The 20% enrichment level is the highest level of enrichment for which there are legitimate research and medical uses.  The JCPOA agreement required Iran to get rid of 98% of their enriched uranium by shipping it out of the country, which they did and it was verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency.  That left only a small amount in the country which was legitimate for research and medical purposes, but not enough to enrich into a weapon.  In other words, Iran went from 90% of the way to weapons material to effectively zero percent overnight, as a result of the JCPOA.  That's what Obama paid Iran the $1.7 Billion for.

2) Uranium is typically enriched by first reacting it with Fluorine gas to produce Uranium Hexaflouride (UF6), then heating that compound until it goes from solid to gas phase, and then running the UF6 gas  through the centrifuges.  Once the UF6 gets to the desired level of enrichment for weapons grade, the fluorine has to be driven off to yield metallic uranium.  That requires a multi-step process which requires transporting the UF6 to what amounts to a specialized metal foundry, reducing it back to metallic form, and then carefully machining the metal into the correct shapes for a bomb.  All while making sure than not enough of the metal accumulates in any one spot capable of causing a criticality accident.  When the intelligence agencies say that Iran was not trying to make nuclear weapons, they mean that they had not detected any efforts to transport the UF6 to their facilities where they could turn the UF6 into metal. 

There's no question that Iran has both the knowledge and facilities to produce nuclear bomb cores.  They just haven't made that dash to convert the UF6 to uranium metal.

Agreed with all that - while it does theoretically take only a few months to enrich the 60% iran had to 90% - getting it to weapons grade standard is quite a lot different due to the criticality/localised hotspots and denaturing you mention. Producing a viable format and being able to produce a nuclear weapon would still take them several years even if they still had access to the 60% in the underground reactor US-Israel throtoughly burried last year.

Personally I highly doubt their material science capabilities and ability to relaibly make the perfect spheres required for a proper fissile core - a dirty bomb or very poor yield device would be achievable but they're thankfully a long way off being able to produce fissile cores due to embargoes and impoprt restrictions - the regime have had the nuclear science capacity since the US taught them and Iraq in the 60s to mid 80s under 'Atoms for Peace' and playing iran and iraq against each other but the conversion/transportation to nuke without accidental detination is still a long way off.

Hopefully a new agreement can bring them back down to 5% or below as they were one of only two nuclear plants in the world producing nuclear science/MRI imaging tracing material vital for a lot of modern medicine - Iran only broke IAEA limits after US withdrew from the agreement with no evidence or suppoort from allies. 60% enrinchment was certainly a bit of an FU and blackmail from the regime as it clearly had no civillian use and required quite a lot of technical expertise/redesigning centrifuges from scratch after FLAME/stuxnet wiped the capability out in 2010.

EDIT: There are legitimate radiopahrmiological medicine uses of up to 20% as you state and one of the Iranian reactors was and was a vital supplier of medical isotopes prior to sites being bombed but alternatives are being developed (my cousin is doing her PhD in finding alternatives as most patients experience severe balance difficulties/falls caused by current imaging isotopes).

[bastion]

Good bet Iran has/HAD loads of enriched U from Russia along with some extra help getting armed missile heads with nuke power!!  Why else would the U.S. have attacked so suddenly and with the extreme force we saw on both big attacks.   Most of it gone now MAYBE.  U.S. & Israeli INTEL knows the WHOLE picture and every detail.  

Not really that hard to figure is it.

[Image: https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc.../giphy.gif]

There's no evidence that had happened and if any attempt had been made it would have set of 1000s of public and millitary detectors worldwide. Russia has been offering to remove the enriched uranium Iran has buried but giving them that leverage will open up a minefield.

By Trumps own admision the US and Israel chose preciision strikes against the regime due to a rare meeting of leading mad mullahs - if there was any evidence Iran had nukes then why would US and Israel lie and claim Iran never had any nukes, russia and china never supplied them with any material or tech for nules given how unpopular the war is in both countries and internationally.

If there was the slightest scintila of any evidence that Iran was anywhere near to nukes or any Russia-China link it would have flagged worldwide and NATO/five eyes/12 eyes nations would support the conflict.

The US 'negotiations team' on a new nuclear deal failed to include a single person with a basic physics education, let alone the highly specific nuclear science, materials science or rocket science background required to make a robust non-nuclear proliferation deal. They ignored all intel and aliies advice and thought the regime would collapse with an air campaign.