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(03-19-2026, 11:47 AM)Thetruth Wrote: No there other option is to dig in and force an occupation .
USA doesn't fair well in occupations....
Surely that suits everyone bar the natives in Iran. TPTB need an enemy to keep the bases in the Arab peninsula. MIC is being ramped up £/$ for everyone in power. Israel and its military machineis increasingly seen as the best thing since slice bread by arab rulers who have been terrified of Iran for decades leading to increasing acceptance of their right to exist. Russia gets its oil back on the market plus at inflated prices, then they get to absorb Ukraine while the planet is focussed on the ME. A drawn out 'ME Cold war' surely suits everyone above. If the iranian regime is toppled I'm not sure it suits the west and Russia.
“If we believe a thing to be bad, and if we have a right to prevent it, it is our duty to try to prevent it and damn the consequences.”
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03-19-2026, 01:27 PM
This post was last modified: 03-19-2026, 01:28 PM by PorkChop96. 
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(03-19-2026, 01:27 PM)PorkChop96 Wrote: Examples of incidents that involved the same countries as now are not "whataboutisms", no matter how hard you scream at your computer monitor for them to be.
Gas prices in my area have actually been on a decline over the last week, not that you'd believe anything that went against your confirmation bias 
Not sure about confirmation bias.
But can confirm this morning in CA gas was over $6. So there’s that.
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(03-19-2026, 01:27 PM)PorkChop96 Wrote: Examples of incidents that involved the same countries as now are not "whataboutisms", no matter how hard you scream at your computer monitor for them to be.
Gas prices in my area have actually been on a decline over the last week, not that you'd believe anything that went against your confirmation bias 
Despite all evidence to the contrary? "Confirmation bias"?!!! LOL!
'l'll just check my Giveashitometer....Nope. Nothing...
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I think that the "fuel price" gimmickry is getting very stale.
The issue of Iran as an irreplaceable component of global oil stocks is very much a matter of opinion.
The investment the infrastructure represented in the region is what's keeping this from ever being a "nuclear" confrontation... they are too greedy to sacrifice that.
As far as I have seen... the US oil situation is almost unchanged... except for the profiteering prompted by the news cycle.
Whatever the hell stops a half-century of institutionalized hate.... let's look into that.
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03-19-2026, 02:07 PM
This post was last modified: 03-19-2026, 02:09 PM by Kurokage. 
(03-19-2026, 01:27 PM)PorkChop96 Wrote: Examples of incidents that involved the same countries as now are not "whataboutisms", no matter how hard you scream at your computer monitor for them to be.
Gas prices in my area have actually been on a decline over the last week, not that you'd believe anything that went against your confirmation bias 
The incidents you claimed were 'Iran controlling the straits' (so 'whataboutisms) was one minor infraction in comparison to what's happened since Trump and Netanyahu bombed Iran.
It's a shame you have to try and belittle my remarks to make yourself feel better with your 'screaming at the computer' comment, as it appears my 'conformation bias' is being used by the world wide oil markets for the price rises???
"Denial is a common tactic that substitutes deliberate ignorance for thoughtful planning."
Charles Tremper
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(03-19-2026, 01:27 PM)PorkChop96 Wrote: Examples of incidents that involved the same countries as now are not "whataboutisms", no matter how hard you scream at your computer monitor for them to be.
Gas prices in my area have actually been on a decline over the last week, not that you'd believe anything that went against your confirmation bias 
Decades ago.
Nowhere near what is happening in the here and now.
Gas prices declining in your area?
What colour is the sky in your area? Or Planet?
'l'll just check my Giveashitometer....Nope. Nothing...
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(03-19-2026, 02:02 PM)Maxmars Wrote: I think that the "fuel price" gimmickry is getting very stale.
The issue of Iran as an irreplaceable component of global oil stocks is very much a matter of opinion.
.......
As far as I have seen... the US oil situation is almost unchanged... except for the profiteering prompted by the news cycle.
.......
Last year (2025) Iran produced about 3.3 million barrels per day of oil. About 90% of that went to China though the Strait of Hormuz. So, stopping Iran's oil from being shipped affects China, mostly and initially. However, that's around 20% of China's need, and that's too much for them to ignore, so China would have to make that up by buying additional oil on the international market. Since the oil market is global, that immediate increase in global demand relative to supply would drive up the price for everyone. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, that took almost the same amount of oil (3 million per day) out of the international market immediately and that shock ended up causing gasoline prices in the US to peak at about 5 dollars per gallon in June of 2022, about 4 months after the shock occurred. It takes time for the effects of a sudden shock to work its way through the supply chain. Nevertheless, oil shot up to about 100$ per barrel very quickly which is very comparable to the 120$ per barrel we have seen within the last week.
And yes, the US situation is going to be slower to react because we actually produce a small excess of oil and natural gas compared to our needs. However, US oil and gas is also sold on the international market, so when the petroleum shortage finally gets felt by all the consumers around the world, US producers are not going to sell their products domestically for a lower price than they can get internationally, and US consumers will end up paying more for those products, just like everyone else in the world.
But the 3.3 million barrels per day was about 3% of the world's consumption before the war and that is small potatoes compared to the approximately 20 million barrels per day that was going through the Strait of Hormuz from the Arab oil producers which has now stopped. That's why some analysts predict that oil will go to 200$ per barrel when that shock works its way through the supply chain. There's simply no way to replace that amount of oil.
And that doesn't count the disruption of Liquified Natural Gas (mostly from Qatar and the UAE) which amounted to about 20% of the world's supply which has also now stopped going through the Strait of Hormuz.
And THAT doesn't even count the 33% of the world's supply of Nitrogen-rich fertilizer (Urea) which has stopped going through the Strait. Many nations depend on the availability of Urea every growing season to avoid food shortage/starvation. China, for example. And right now is the beginning of fertilizer season in the Northern Hemisphere.
And THAT still doesn't count the 45% of the world's supply of sulfur that normally goes through the Strait which has now stopped. Sulfur is absolutely essential in the manufacture of many industrial products we take for granted, like Phosphate fertilizer, Copper, steel, pharmaceuticals, paper, and on and on.
If somehow the war magically ended today and no more infrastructure was destroyed, we are looking at maybe getting back to something like normal in a year or so. But it's not magically ending any time soon.
We're hosed.
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03-19-2026, 04:23 PM
This post was last modified: 03-19-2026, 04:28 PM by putnam6. 
No, America is not at imminent risk of a financial collapse.
The U.S. economy remains resilient (strong growth, contained inflation relative to recent peaks, deep financial markets). There is no credible mainstream forecast of financial collapse in 2026 or the immediate future.
The U.S. benefits from unique advantages that other high-debt countries lack, and mainstream analyses from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), IMF, Moody’s, and nonpartisan groups like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) describe a gradual deterioration rather than an immediate crisis.
https://x.com/i/grok/share/78849bbab73a4...afbeed7c64
Quote:No, America is not at imminent risk of a financial collapse.
The U.S. faces serious long-term fiscal challenges—high and rising debt, persistent deficits, and growing interest costs—but these do not point to a sudden sovereign default, banking system meltdown, or hyperinflation-style collapse in the near term (2026–2030). The U.S. benefits from unique advantages that other high-debt countries lack, and mainstream analyses from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), IMF, Moody’s, and nonpartisan groups like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) describe a gradual deterioration rather than an immediate crisis.
Current Snapshot (as of March 2026)
• Gross national debt has crossed ~$38.9–$39 trillion (roughly $31 trillion held by the public).
• Debt held by the public sits at approximately 100–101% of GDP—near post-WWII highs but not unprecedented.
• FY2026 deficits are running ~$1.9 trillion (5.8% of GDP) and on track to grow.
• Net interest payments already exceed $1 trillion annually and are projected to double to ~$2.1 trillion by 2036.
Official Projections
Under current law (CBO’s February 2026 baseline):
• Deficits average ~6.1% of GDP over the next decade and rise to 6.7% by 2036 (well above the historical ~3.8% average).
• Debt held by the public climbs to a record 108% of GDP by 2030, 120% by 2036, and 175% by 2056.
• Interest costs alone rise from 3.2–3.3% of GDP today to 4.6% by 2036 and 6.9% by 2056, consuming an ever-larger share of revenue and crowding out other spending.
These trends are driven by aging demographics, rising healthcare/Social Security costs, and the feedback loop of higher debt → higher interest → even larger deficits.
Why Collapse Is Unlikely Soon
• Dollar dominance and monetary sovereignty: The U.S. borrows in its own currency. The Federal Reserve can always create dollars to service debt (though this risks inflation). Markets still view U.S. Treasuries as the world’s safest asset.
• IMF assessment: “The risk of sovereign stress in the U.S. is low,” despite calling rising debt a “growing stability risk” for the U.S. and global economy. The IMF projects 2.4% U.S. growth in 2026 and expects deficits to stay high (7–8% of GDP range) but sees no near-term crisis.
• No market panic yet: Treasury yields remain manageable; investors continue buying U.S. debt. Rating agencies have expressed concerns but have not triggered a sell-off. Moody’s and others flag fiscal fragilities and potential yield spikes as risks, not certainties.
• Historical precedent: Japan has run debt >250% of GDP for years without collapse. The U.S. has absorbed WWII-era debt peaks and post-2008/2020 surges through growth and policy flexibility.
Bottom Line
The U.S. economy remains resilient (strong growth, contained inflation relative to recent peaks, deep financial markets). There is no credible mainstream forecast of financial collapse in 2026 or the immediate future. However, the fiscal path is clearly unsustainable long-term and raises the probability of slower growth, higher taxes/inflation, reduced policy flexibility, or a painful correction if markets lose patience.
Fixing it requires politically difficult choices—spending restraint, revenue increases, or growth-enhancing reforms—but history shows advanced economies can adjust without catastrophe when they act. The risk is real but manageable through deliberate policy, not an inevitable collapse.
His mind was not for rent to any god or government
Always hopeful yet discontent, knows changes aren't permanent
But change is
Professor Neil Ellwood Peart
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(03-19-2026, 02:37 PM)Oldcarpy2 Wrote: Decades ago.
Nowhere near what is happening in the here and now.
Gas prices declining in your area?
What colour is the sky in your area? Or Planet?
I'm not sure where Porkchop is, but here is Kentucky gas has dropped by 10 cents. Admittedly it's higher than I would like, but it is dropping.
Current price is $3.19 per gallon.
From what I understand, the UK is paying about $7 per gallon.
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