President Trump just cut the US trade deficit IN HALF, lowest in nearly 2 decades

[putnam6]

This is a good thing, right?

 

• The post celebrates a sharp drop in the US trade deficit to $29.4 billion in October 2025—half of March's $136 billion level and the lowest in nearly two decades—crediting President Trump's aggressive tariff policies, as shown in a stunned CNBC clip.
  
• Economic data from the Census Bureau confirms the October figure, driven by surging exports and moderated imports amid tariffs that generated $289 billion in 2025 revenue, funding proposed tax relief.
  
• Thread replies emphasize policy success, with users noting manufacturing gains and urging Supreme Court support for tariffs despite China's overall 2025 trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion.
  

 

Eric Daugherty

@EricLDaugh

 HOLY SMOKES. President Trump just cut the US trade deficit IN HALF, lowest in nearly 2 decades,

CNBC is in total shock! "Buckle up, THIS IS UNREAL. -$29.4 billion, we cut it IN HALF!"

"In March it was $136B. Now, under $30B.

We haven't been that small in a long time -

I don't have enough RECORDS to go back that far!"

Apologize to Donald Trump and Scott Bessent.
THEY WERE RIGHT!

[Oldcarpy2]

This is a good thing, right?


 

You seem to think that a trade deficit is automatically a bad thing.  But you are in good company.

Trump doesn't understand Economics, either.

[FlyersFan]

This is a good thing, right?

As far as I can tell ... yes.
OKay ... credit where it is due.
Credit Bessent.

[putnam6]

You seem to think that a trade deficit is automatically a bad thing.  But you are in good company.

Trump doesn't understand Economics, either.

Im so sorry you've fallen on hard times OC, perhaps you ought to immigrate to America
 

CNBC was stunned and could not believe it.

FWIW, it was a big-time Trump campaign promise too...



And it's  in my niche industry, our Chinese suppliers have quarterly unit quotas that they have to meet. When they fall short of these quotas, they often offer discounts for larger volume orders. Savvy apparel companies take advantage of these discounts by bulk-reordering their best-selling items at significantly reduced prices, which allows us to increase our profit per unit sold before EOQ, increasing our BL. This allows cash influx and/or larger lower-interest loans where firms can invest and heavily promote thier product in season. 

The great news is that our Chinese suppliers are now offering these discounts earlier than usual. Typically, these discounts would come after the Chinese New Year, but this year we can take advantage of them during our busiest retail season. Having a surplus of our top styles available during this time maximizes their retail potential, AND RARELY happens in season
 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/...n-october/

KEY FACTSThe trade deficit—a measurement by which the cost of a country’s imports is worth more than its exports

-shrank to $29.4 billion in October, the narrowest gap since June 2009 and a 39% decrease from September ($48.1 billion), the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported.
 
Imports decreased 3.2% in the month to $331.4 billion from September, while exports jumped 2.6% to $302 billion, according to the agency.
 
Wall Street expected the trade gap to widen to $60.6 billion, according to FactSet.
 
The effective tariff rate imposed by the U.S. was 17.9% in October, the highest since 1934, according to the Budget Lab at Yale.

 

Positive Aspects

• Boost to GDP calculation — Trade balance directly affects GDP (net exports = exports minus imports). A lower deficit (or surplus) adds to growth. Reports indicate this October figure could contribute positively to Q4 2025 GDP, as rising exports (up to record levels) and falling imports shifted spending toward domestic goods.
  
• Tariff revenue — Tariffs implemented in 2025 generated substantial government revenue (estimates range from $200-330 billion for the year across sources), which has funded initiatives like tax relief or dividends in some narratives.
  
• Policy goals met — Proponents (including the administration) view it as evidence that aggressive tariffs reduced imports, narrowed imbalances, and supported domestic manufacturing/exports.
  

Potential Downsides and Caveats

• Driven by volatile factors → The drop was heavily influenced by swings in categories like pharmaceuticals (big import decline) and nonmonetary gold/precious metals, not broad manufacturing resurgence. Economists note these are often one-off or price-driven, not structural.
  
• Year-to-date context → Despite the October low, the overall 2025 trade deficit remains higher than 2024 levels (up ~17% through earlier months in some reports), due to front-loading of imports before tariffs hit.
  
• Broader economic view → Many economists argue trade deficits aren't inherently bad—they often reflect a strong economy attracting foreign investment, allowing higher consumption/investment funded by global savings.Persistent deficits can signal issues (e.g., low savings or competitiveness gaps), but forcing them lower via tariffs risks higher consumer prices, supply chain disruptions, and retaliation (though limited so far).
  
• Sustainability → Some analyses predict the deficit could widen again in late 2025/early 2026 as adjustments fade and demand rebounds.
  

In short, this specific drop is likely a net positive for short-term metrics like GDP and aligns with tariff advocates' goals, but it's not a clear slam-dunk win for long-term economic health—much depends on whether it persists without major side effects like inflation or slower growth. The data is still fresh (released today, January 8, 2026), so we'll get clearer pictures with November/December figures soon

[RazorV66]

Im so sorry you've fallen on hard times OC, perhaps you ought to immigrate to America
 [Image: https://media0.giphy.com/media/fRtK3t3i6.../giphy.gif]

 

[Oldcarpy2]

Im so sorry you've fallen on hard times OC, perhaps you ought to immigrate to America
 [Image: https://media0.giphy.com/media/fRtK3t3i6.../giphy.gif]

CNBC was stunned and could not believe it.

FWIW, it was a big-time Trump campaign promise too...



And it's [Image: https://media0.giphy.com/media/l0HefZY0m.../giphy.gif] in my niche industry, our Chinese suppliers have quarterly unit quotas that they have to meet. When they fall short of these quotas, they often offer discounts for larger volume orders. Savvy apparel companies take advantage of these discounts by bulk-reordering their best-selling items at significantly reduced prices, which allows us to increase our profit per unit sold before EOQ, increasing our BL. This allows cash influx and/or larger lower-interest loans where firms can invest and heavily promote thier product in season. 

The great news is that our Chinese suppliers are now offering these discounts earlier than usual. Typically, these discounts would come after the Chinese New Year, but this year we can take advantage of them during our busiest retail season. Having a surplus of our top styles available during this time maximizes their retail potential, AND RARELY happens in season
 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/...n-october/

 

No thanks.

You still don't understand tariffs or trade deficits.

That's OK.  Neither does Trump.

[putnam6]

As far as I can tell ... yes.
OKay ... credit where it is due.
Credit Bessent.

And who selected Bessent?

Praising Bessent only doesn't elicit the same frequency and impassioned responses

[RazorV66]

No thanks.

You still don't understand tariffs or trade deficits.

That's OK.  Neither does Trump.

Maybe an Old Carp out of the water in the UK can school us with his vast knowledge?

Or maybe stay in your lane.

[Oldcarpy2]

Maybe an Old Carp out of the water in the UK can school us with his vast knowledge?

Or maybe stay in your lane.

Nah.  Some folk will never learn.

Or accept actually knowledge.

Carry on and find out.

[RazorV66]

Nah.  Some folk will never learn.

Or accept actually knowledge.

Carry on and find out.

It's ok Carp, you can say you don't know a damn thing about trade deficits.