3 hours ago
(4 hours ago)BeyondKnowledge Wrote: Some of you are comparing nonsensical statistics.
You can't compare percentage of votes cast to percentages of poles asked of the population.
That is not even comparing apples to oranges. More like oranges to rocks.
How about someone come up with the percentage of votes in the last presidential election based on number of registered voters and not votes cast? That would be interesting to know. And for the poles, they are wrong most of the time as the questions are misleading and the samples are too small or biast.
And what happened to those voting precincts that reported over 100% voting? I haven't heard anything about them in a while
The midterm approval poll has to be wrong first. So far it is better than Iowa. Even Kalshi has its odds near 4:1.
Since WWII, EVERY president that is below 50% approval (regardless of poll bias) loses an average of 37 seats at midterms. Thats our TRADITION. That is verified through polls and results.
I think only a miscarriage of our democracy could script otherwise. I think the second honeymoon is over. He lost a lot of independents, and only his base still keeps alive the majority narrative.
Its almost one of the givens. "Lose control of the house at midterms with low approval." And even the most flattering polls have Trump maxing out at 44% with The Daily Mail Poll. Lowest is 36%
IF TRUMP MAINTAINS THIS HOUSE ADVANTAGE WITH THESE POLLS, we may be as fucked as Hungary with our illusions of representative democracy still existing.
So I am going to make a prediction now:
Even though Trump CONSISTENTLY OVERPERFORMS, he still loses 15-25 seats, and the house flips anyway. Trump then calls the result a scam, everyone ignores THAT IT HAPPENS EVERY TIME, and we all have to deal with the stolen election shit again.


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