Multiple Russian Tu-95 bombers burning a massive Ukrainian FPV drone strike

[IDELB2006]

IF CHINA DID THIS IN MEXICO CITY? What's the American response? Isn't that a much more accurate and realistic analogy

You've made this argument before.

The problem I see with it, is that Ukraine had already been declined by NATO, and they had been told it would be a long time before they would be eligible to join.

The reason for the invasion was Ukraine being in talks to join the EU. More of a political / economic organization.

So a more apt analogy would be if the east was trying to lure western countries into BRICs, which has been happening for years. So far a few countries in South America, and Cuba have joined BRICs and the US has not invaded any of them recently.

[putnam6]

To be fair, China and Russia do in fact play their games in South America, especially in Venezuela.

Also, in terms of who "did the coup", Ukraine had elected their leader to help them into the EU, it's what he ran on. At the very last minute he had a meeting with Putin and pulled out. So Russia was meddling as well, and that's when the Ukrainians started to protest. I don't doubt that we helped in that, but I'm sure they saw their neighbors who left the Russian sphere of influence to do better like Poland and wanted a taste.

I didn't say suggest or infer Russia didn't stick its nose in South America, or Venezuela,  two wrongly foreign-sponsored manipulations do not make supporting neo nazis in over throwing a Russian sponsored government right, nor does that afford said new government NATO membership and yet it's been bandied about prominently, but mostly deeking around in South America or Venezuala doesn't seem as close to starting WWIII as Ukraine currently does.

What if China used ISIS to overthrow the Mexican government with promises of ISIS controlled states on the American border

[RickyD]

You've made this argument before.

The problem I see with it, is that Ukraine had already been declined by NATO, and they had been told it would be a long time before they would be eligible to join.

The reason for the invasion was Ukraine being in talks to join the EU. More of a political / economic organization.

So a more apt analogy would be if the east was trying to lure western countries into BRICs, which has been happening for years. So far a few countries in South America, and Cuba have joined BRICs and the US has not invaded any of them recently.

So just hand wave it all away... Thats all anyone ever seems able to do when presented with the US/western part played in the whole mess. The west manufacured the coup and the riots. The riots were led by neo nazi groups that the west worked with. Now the west hangs Ukraine out to dry having no means to do anything apart from funding the war...unless they want to risk all out war which would probably be the end of us all.

Wonder what the world would be like if everybody just stopped meddling in everyone else's countries...

[IDELB2006]

So just hand wave it all away... Thats all anyone ever seems able to do when presented with the US/western part played in the whole mess. The west manufacured the coup and the riots. The riots were led by neo nazi groups that the west worked with. Now the west hangs Ukraine out to dry having no means to do anything apart from funding the war...unless they want to risk all out war which would probably be the end of us all.

Wonder what the world would be like if everybody just stopped meddling in everyone else's countries...

I wasn't hand waving anything. Not sure why you would make that accusation.

You are suggesting that US is at fault for Russia's invasion. When in fact the US spent 10 years trying to convince Putin not to invade. Meanwhile Russians invasion of Ukraine is a carbon copy of every invasion plan they have used for over 100 years. 

I was pointing out how America was not invading countries for joining Brics.

[putnam6]

You've made this argument before.

The problem I see with it, is that Ukraine had already been declined by NATO, and they had been told it would be a long time before they would be eligible to join.

The reason for the invasion was Ukraine being in talks to join the EU. More of a political / economic organization.

So a more apt analogy would be if the east was trying to lure western countries into BRICs, which has been happening for years. So far a few countries in South America, and Cuba have joined BRICs and the US has not invaded any of them recently.

For a short format analogy, perhaps, but Google Operation Urgent Fury

Name the country that threatens American citizens living in said country?

Russians were harassed and threatened in the eastern oblasts of Ukraine, reportedly 

None of those countries is a threat to America, nor were those countries threatening American citizens living in South America and Cuba.

Again doesn't justify the Russian invasion, but added with American political terraforming, it concerned Putin enough that he risked an invasion 

IABFYRMP....
 

According to the 2001 Ukrainian census, approximately 8,334,100 people identified as ethnic Russians, making up 17.3% of Ukraine's population, which totaled 48,457,100 at the time. This figure includes Russians living across Ukraine, with notable concentrations in certain regions:

• Crimea: Ethnic Russians comprised 60% of the population (about 1.2 million) in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, per the 2001 census.
  
• Eastern Ukraine: Significant Russian populations were present in industrial regions like Donetsk (43.6%), Luhansk (44.8%), and Kharkiv (33.2%).
  
• Southern Ukraine: Areas like Odesa (27.4%) and Zaporizhzhia (32%) also had sizable Russian communities.
  
• Urban Centers: A high proportion (42.3%) of Russians in Ukraine lived in cities, compared to only 5.4% of Ukrainians, reflecting historical settlement patterns tied to Soviet-era industrialization.
  

 
Ukrainian neo-Nazi and far-right groups existed and were active, particularly in 2014-2015, with some documented abuses in eastern Ukraine. However, claims of systematic threats or massacres targeting ethnic Russians in the eastern oblasts are unsubstantiated and heavily exaggerated, often used as a pretext for Russian actions. The situation reflects a messy conflict with wrongdoing on both sides, not a one-sided neo-Nazi campaign.

[CriticalStinker]

I didn't say suggest or infer Russia didn't stick its nose in South America, or Venezuela,  two wrongly foreign-sponsored manipulations do not make supporting neo nazis in over throwing a Russian sponsored government right, nor does that afford said new government NATO membership and yet it's been bandied about prominently, but mostly deeking around in South America or Venezuala doesn't seem as close to starting WWIII as Ukraine currently does.

What if China used ISIS to overthrow the Mexican government with promises of ISIS controlled states on the American border

I think it's more of a chicken or the egg question. The separatists in the east weren't exactly innocent while Ukraine was trying to exit the Russian sphere of influence. That doesn't excuse civilian deaths, but it does add nuance to what was happening considering Ukraine wanted to lean towards the EU while the ethnic Russians wanted to lean towards Russia. This is after Crimea too.

Nothing can be excused in war, but I guess I sympathize with Ukraine more since they're the one loosing their sovereignty. They showed time after time they don't want to be under Russia's umbrella, their proximity to Russia doesn't justify being bullied.

[putnam6]

I think it's more of a chicken or the egg question. The separatists in the east weren't exactly innocent while Ukraine was trying to exit the Russian sphere of influence. That doesn't excuse civilian deaths, but it does add nuance to what was happening considering Ukraine wanted to lean towards the EU while the ethnic Russians wanted to lean towards Russia. This is after Crimea too.

Nothing can be excused in war, but I guess I sympathize with Ukraine more since they're the one loosing their sovereignty. They showed time after time they don't want to be under Russia's umbrella, their proximity to Russia doesn't justify being bullied.

Fair enough, but again, what would America do if Mexico were in a similar situation to Ukraine, what if China installed a pro-China government in Mexico?

What if the 1.1 million Americans living in Mexico were being threatened just because they were American....

Would America send a strongly worded letter?

[CriticalStinker]

Fair enough, but again, what would America do if Mexico were in a similar situation to Ukraine, what if China installed a pro-China government in Mexico?

What if the 1.1 million Americans living in Mexico were being threatened just because they were American....

Would America send a strongly worded letter?

Counter question, what would America do if ethnic Mexicans were trying to succeed from the US in Cali or Texas?

How would the US respond to such activity from a minority on our border?

Again, it's nuanced and complicated. I'm just glad we're not primarily involved.

[putnam6]

Counter question, what would America do if ethnic Mexicans were trying to succeed from the US in Cali or Texas?

How would the US respond to such activity from a minority on our border?

Again, it's nuanced and complicated. I'm just glad we're not primarily involved.

Do the ethnic Mexicans have any nuanced nuclear-tipped ICBMs ....

Who knows, maybe I was raised in the Cold War era, and MAD is imprinted on my brain. Neither will make peace and we can spend billions and 3 years conventionally and be right back to where we are now, with every one of those 900 plus days under a heightened threat of nuclear weapons use... Yay!

as for your scenario 

Likely Outcome
The U.S. would likely prioritize de-escalation, addressing root causes through dialogue and policy while firmly asserting federal authority. Any organized, armed secession attempt would be met with a coordinated response—law enforcement first, followed by the National Guard if necessary, and the military only in extreme cases. The government would aim to prevent loss of life, protect infrastructure, and maintain national unity, while avoiding actions that could inflame tensions or garner sympathy for the movement.
Caveats

• Scale Matters: A small, non-violent protest would be handled differently than a large, armed uprising.
  
• Context: Economic, social, and political conditions in 2025, as well as the specific demands of the group, would shape the response.
  
• International Dimension: Any foreign involvement (e.g., support from Mexico or other actors) would complicate the situation and could escalate tensions.
  

 

[sahgwa]

The facts are simple and 2.
1. If the USA had not been Empire building and poking in Ukraine then Russia never would have invaded, full stop. It is the USA fault that Russia invaded. I say this as an American and an honorably discharged one at that. 
2. Russia should not have invaded and it just makes the whole thing worse and there is no real justification for the proxy war killing innocent Ukrainians. 

That's all I have said. Ad nauseum.  That's why I am not sorry that I am not all gung ho Pro Ukraine because I am not all gung ho pro Russia either. But people like to project. Grey is hard for most people to see.