Isreal launches strikes on Iran

[putnam6]

Twenty-one currently heading east. Not all KC-135s though. It's a mix of KC-135s and KC-46s.

Edit: Up to 22 now. One is an RAF RC-135 on a SHINR flight out of L3 in Texas.

Wasnt that you told me and others to watch for when and if the SHTF

fwiw

Grok
·
17m

The 24 US tanker aircraft are likely heading to Finland for Atlantic Trident 25, a multinational exercise with the US, UK, France, and Finland from June 16-27, 2025. Their purpose is to provide aerial refueling for fighter jets, supporting NATO readiness and deterrence. This aligns with the broader DEFENDER 25 exercise series. No evidence suggests a sudden crisis in Europe, making a planned exercise the most probable explanation. However, the large number of tankers is unusual, and alternative missions like repositioning are possible but less likely.

[Zaphod58]

Wasnt that you told me and others to watch for when and if the SHTF

fwiw

Grok
·
17m

The 24 US tanker aircraft are likely heading to Finland for Atlantic Trident 25, a multinational exercise with the US, UK, France, and Finland from June 16-27, 2025. Their purpose is to provide aerial refueling for fighter jets, supporting NATO readiness and deterrence. This aligns with the broader DEFENDER 25 exercise series. No evidence suggests a sudden crisis in Europe, making a planned exercise the most probable explanation. However, the large number of tankers is unusual, and alternative missions like repositioning are possible but less likely.

Yes.

They're definitely NOT going for Atlantic Trident. It kicks off tomorrow, and you don't send aircraft the night before an exercise. Everything that's participating in that were there last week to do familiarization training. These are all kicking East off the coast, which takes them across to Spain. If they were going to Finland they'd have gone north and across the UK and Scotland.  I've never seen 20+ aircraft sent for a single exercise. That's enough fuel for somewhere around 150 fighters.

[RickyD]

Wasnt that you told me and others to watch for when and if the SHTF

fwiw

Grok
·
17m

The 24 US tanker aircraft are likely heading to Finland for Atlantic Trident 25, a multinational exercise with the US, UK, France, and Finland from June 16-27, 2025. Their purpose is to provide aerial refueling for fighter jets, supporting NATO readiness and deterrence. This aligns with the broader DEFENDER 25 exercise series. No evidence suggests a sudden crisis in Europe, making a planned exercise the most probable explanation. However, the large number of tankers is unusual, and alternative missions like repositioning are possible but less likely.

Its always an exercise we do a metric ton of them...which also conveniently gives us an excuse to have assets where we would need them if we were to wanna strike anything anywhere anytime. If we say also sent some more stealthier bombier planes and some escort...who would really know?

[RickyD]

Also Willie is covering the strikes live again...so far it appears Iran's hit rate has gone up per what footage there is to view. Isreal just banned taking video of the strikes or interceptions...so its gonna get harder to know soon.






**Mod. Edit -- Fixed video link**

[Zaphod58]

Its always an exercise we do a metric ton of them...which also conveniently gives us an excuse to have assets where we would need them if we were to wanna strike anything anywhere anytime. If we say also sent some more stealthier bombier planes and some escort...who would really know?

There have been no exercises that I've seen that have had 20+ tankers arrive the night before it starts. There have been no exercises that I've seen that have had 20+ tankers involved in them to begin with. I've seen 10-12, but not somewhere around 26.

[RickyD]

There have been no exercises that I've seen that have had 20+ tankers arrive the night before it starts. There have been no exercises that I've seen that have had 20+ tankers involved in them to begin with. I've seen 10-12, but not somewhere around 26.

If I had to guess they aren't all going to the same place. If you wanted to be ready to move all the things you need that bridge. We watched it recently with the last rapid deployment to the ME. Also fighters need more fuel stops than heavy lifters so that could explain the numbers.

[Zaphod58]

If I had to guess they aren't all going to the same place. If you wanted to be ready to move all the things you need that bridge. We watched it recently with the last rapid deployment to the ME. Also fighters need more fuel stops than heavy lifters so that could explain the numbers.

Heavy platforms need more fuel. Sometimes one heavy can take one and a half tankers to get all the fuel they need. So we're looking at 10-15 bombers or airlift platform with 26 tankers involved. They're staging where they need to be to meet up with whatever they're meeting up with. Some may stay on the east coast, some will stay in Spain, some maybe to Italy, others to Diego Garcia or somewhere near the end of their mission area.

[Bush Master]

Like everything, it's nuanced.

I think a nuclear weapon was probably something they did seek. I could understand why they saw that as a good deterrent if they compared Libya and North Korea. That doesn't mean I'm sympathetic to them obtaining one. 

By all estimates, their enrichment was close, or there before these strikes. All that was left was making the bomb itself, which many act like is the hardest thing ever even though it was done 80 years ago. There have been teenage kids who made theoretical ones for their thesis. 

That said, Bibi has been saying they were months away for decades, and lobbying the US to help him in his ambitions. I suppose one could argue he came from a good place, but allegedly they still don't have one, so one has to wonder.

Then on the other hand, you have the US who has always taken a strong position against the Iranian nuclear program. Which, I would counter with the question who built their first reactor?

All that said, Iran is the epitome of a religious dictatorship. I think those are even scarier, considering it brings the idea of one's "eternal spirit", and not just your current life when you live under them. I suppose it's a different relationship with your government when you see it as an extension of God. I could see how someone would make the same case for Israel, but Judaism is a really interesting religion compared to it's siblings Christianity and Islam. I think it's because being Jewish is ethnic, and/or religion. So many of them are almost agnostic or atheist, but still relate to the broader idea out of tradition.

Someone can test various implosion schemes without actual U235  ...so I am told. 

[rickymouse]

Kind of interesting stuff being said here, especially by Zaphod.  I think they may be preparing for a possible involvement in something, probably in the middle east by what is being said.  I am not sure what they would need those refuelers stationed there for unless they will be needed for refueling long range bombers or other long range jets.  I do not even know where the military airbases are that deal with things in  the middle east.

[RickyD]

Kind of interesting stuff being said here, especially by Zaphod.  I think they may be preparing for a possible involvement in something, probably in the middle east by what is being said.  I am not sure what they would need those refuelers stationed there for unless they will be needed for refueling long range bombers or other long range jets.  I do not even know where the military airbases are that deal with things in  the middle east.

If it was say a flight of B-21s or even B-2s we wouldn't land them at anyone else's base. Maybe one of ours in the pacific somewhere but if you want to be able to deploy them at a moments notice you have to put in the gas bridge. Or if we wanted to say deploy forces to protect/evacuate our people/installations over there.

Those are the 2 things I see as most likely. Either we are gonna hit Furdow or we are prepping to be defensive. If its the latter you will see the heavy lifters on ADS-B probably. If its the former...you see nothing and they say nothing.