How the Iran trap works

[annonentity]

I came across this gem of an analysis he has done a few vids, and he seems to be a very gifted individual, just keeping the facts at the front. According to him Nukes will not be used, trump will have to put ground troops in to force the regime change.,and then will be in a quagmire which might cause a civil war back home.
 The reason is that Iran with its size a geophysical position can inflict more damage on the west then America can inflict on Iran.
 Israel wants a greater Israel and does not want America to be calling the shots, Iran wants to be the leader of the Islamic world. This would be  win win situation after all this gets played out. So the trap is set will Trump take the bait? have a look at a few of the details which makes this situation a plausible outcome with what we already know.  Geo-Strategy Update: US-Iran War Incoming - YouTube

  
I will add this one as well, because it sort of sums up the state of the Empire, and comparisons with the past wars. Where at the end of empire the Empire itself has no choice but to extract tribute from whomsoever they can, it seems to be just the way of Empires, and since we can't seem to pick our timing of when we experience the good times  we can attempt to ,know what is going to occur which  helps us prepare and ride out the bad times. Civilization #END: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire

[UltraBudgie]

this enforces my suspicion that pakistan's nuclear program is entirely bitched and anything they have will only work if the us wants it to.

the past decades' geopolitical pivots with regard to russia and china make a bit more sense when see in the light of potential iranian trade and military synergy.

persia has had a bug up their butt ever since america took babylon and showed beyond a doubt that the malarky with the shah wasn't a one-off.

[andy06shake]

If Trump puts troops on Iranian soil they will be slaughtered.

It's not Iraq, militarily, geographically, or politically.

Iran has a much stronger, more organised military.

And its terrain and population are far more hostile to foreign intervention.

Any U.S. ground invasion would likely face heavy resistance from both the Iranian military and militias.

And unlike Iraq in 2003, Iran has had decades to prepare for asymmetric warfare.

All a full-scale deployment is likely to achieve is to trigger a regional war, with massive casualties, and cause even more global instability.

It's not a move any sane administration would consider.

So he might be right, as unfortunate as the case may be.

[ntech]

If Trump puts troops on Iranian soil they will be slaughtered.

It's not Iraq, militarily, geographically, or politically.

Iran has a much stronger, more organised military.

And its terrain and population are far more hostile to foreign intervention.

Any U.S. ground invasion would likely face heavy resistance from both the Iranian military and militias.

And unlike Iraq in 2003, Iran has had decades to prepare for asymmetric warfare.

All a full-scale deployment is likely to achieve is to trigger a regional war, with massive casualties, and cause even more global instability.

It's not a move any sane administration would consider.

So he might be right, as unfortunate as the case may be.

The flip side to that would be an embargo of Iran with the occasional bombing of military facilities.   If the general populace realizes they're just going to be a larger version of Gaza currently they may get rid of the Islamists just to get the pain to stop.   No oil to sell.  No imports or exports of anything.   Trump and Israel can make Iran a miserable place.

[RichardHurt]

The flip side to that would be an embargo of Iran with the occasional bombing of military facilities.   If the general populace realizes they're just going to be a larger version of Gaza currently they may get rid of the Islamists just to get the pain to stop.   No oil to sell.  No imports or exports of anything.   Trump and Israel can make Iran a miserable place.

The optics of allowing that and or supporting that are equally if not more unfavorable to pretty much everyone alive. So the way I see this ending in the most convenient way for everyone aside from maybe a few people. Would be for Iran to capitulate to Trump's demands. If and only if they do would there be any terms of negations going forward.
And those negotiations would be for the betterment of the Iranian people and it's future government.

[quintessentone]

The flip side to that would be an embargo of Iran with the occasional bombing of military facilities.   If the general populace realizes they're just going to be a larger version of Gaza currently they may get rid of the Islamists just to get the pain to stop.   No oil to sell.  No imports or exports of anything.   Trump and Israel can make Iran a miserable place.

The oil has been flowing, illegally, and will continue to flow from Iran to China via railway.

"U.S. STUNNED! China & Iran BREAK Malacca Chokehold — Oil Flows Freely to Beijing!"

"In early March 2025, China and Iran announced the official launch date of the long-awaited China-Iran railway—a massive breakthrough in regional connectivity and global trade. Spanning over 1,350 kilometers, this strategic railway project will dramatically boost overland oil transportation from Iran to China, reducing dependence on maritime routes like the Strait of Malacca. As part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), this railway is more than infrastructure—it’s a geopolitical game-changer."

So now I answered my previous question as to how Iran could so easily decide to close the Straight of Hormuz. Now watch how all the other gulf countries will need to scramble to be able to import/export goods, but I think they will all find ways around it.

[Tecate]

Was it Webster (CIA) who said that Iran would be the last domino to fall?
I tried to find the quote but couldn’t.

Something about US taming the ME. I could be wrong though.

It just keeps popping up in my mind that this is something we suppose to watch for.


Tecate

[SurferSoul]

Was it Webster (CIA) who said that Iran would be the last domino to fall?
I tried to find the quote but couldn’t.

Something about US taming the ME. I could be wrong though.

It just keeps popping up in my mind that this is something we suppose to watch for.


Tecate

You might be thinking of General Wesley Clarke. It was a list that one of his staff was privy to. The memory is also vague for me.

[andy06shake]

The flip side to that would be an embargo of Iran with the occasional bombing of military facilities.   If the general populace realizes they're just going to be a larger version of Gaza currently they may get rid of the Islamists just to get the pain to stop.   No oil to sell.  No imports or exports of anything.   Trump and Israel can make Iran a miserable place.

Well, I think it's a safe bet the majority of the American people would prefer your flip side to an actual boots-on-the-ground invasion of Iran.

As for the general populace realizing they're just going to be a larger version of Gaza?

The population of Gaza is......or was......about 2.142 million, Iran's is around 95 million.

So it's apples and oranges, really, and I think the response it would provoke worldwide would not be in America's favour.

Iran will be a tough nut to crack compared to the likes of Iraq, and a completely different kettle of fish to contend with.

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

@annonentity

I think this is the only quote you need.

Iran wants to be the leader of the Islamic world

They want to be a lot of things.

They've heard of Mecca though, right?

I don't see air conditioned tent cities constructed for the Haj to Tehren.

The undisputed leader of Islam wants Iranian civilian casualties at a minimum, but i am not seeing them throwing up too many roadblocks. Airspace and indirect support sides with getting Saudi Arabia to take over from Jordan as guardian of Al Aqsa. The thing they need to remove Iran to get accomplished. 

Iran is in the way of Israel-Saudi relations being established. The game-changer. 

But what does Iran have? (Looked this up)

640,000 active troops, 960,000 total.
Cold war F14s and Mig 29s
Chinese hypersonic missiles.
Importance to China's world takeover.

Iran has China.

I just dont see China/Russia sticking TOO much of their neck out over this. Not the war they wanted. Russia is getting its ass kicked by proxy support. China isn't there yet and they know it. They would have crossed the straights by now if they were. 

It definitely wouldn't be a pushover like Iraq was, but the terrain of The Hindu Kush Mountains in Afghanistan is enough of a prep for mountainous warfare.

The Offspring were right. Even with the subtle criticism.

"This ain't no Vietnam, we can win in Iran." 

If only we could go back to the late 80s and do this before China went Authoritarian Cyber Punk. Because the winning part is way more in question now. Soviets were still in the way when we should have done it. But priorities at the time were TO ARM the Islamic Revolution to fight the commies... Not saying the CIA was once retarded, but...




This should have been THE FIRST STAND against radical Islam though. It's the head you have to kill to make Islamic miltancy follow. 

Reverting the country with the unofficial "Death to Israel, Death to America" motto back to 1975 will always have my support. That's the one instance YOU WANT TO FORCE a status quo back in time, because for them it actually restores rights.