Has Ukraine collapsed

[WallFlowerActive]

Don't know about excuses, but Poland's NATO membership would trigger the collective defense obligations under Article 5.

Will it. What will the world do if the war in Poland starts as a civil war.

[andy06shake]

The real threat is China with them getting cheap fuel from Russia.  Where the whole world is addicted to cheap Chinese crap.



What you think is going to happen when Putin goes into the next country?

Sad that Europe help make this mess and willing to make a profit off arms deals.  And only interested in policy that makes corruption easy while the Ukraine burns through the last of its fighting men.

You can make all the grand claims all you want.  But if there is nobody left in Ukraine that can realistically fight because they all got used as canon fodder, Russia takes over the Ukraine anyway.  With China having increased access to energy through Russian and its control of the Ukrainian.

Too late on that score, they have us both by the b@lls and addicted to their toys.

But your argument overstates Ukraine's losses and underestimates its resilience.

They are far from ready to capitulate because they realise the price the will pay is their sovereignty.  

Portraying Ukraine as exhausted "cannon fodder" oversimplifies the dynamic.

Russia's advance is far from guaranteed and happening at a snail's pace. 

Ukraine's resistance has stalled one Russian incursion after another.

Not to mention inflicted severe Russian casualties and losses.

They are down, but hardly out....

[andy06shake]

Will it. What will the world do if the war in Poland starts as a civil war.

That question could also be asked regarding your own nation.

Same with mine, or many others if we are honest, including Russia.

Adapt would be my bet.

But i don't think a civil war in Poland is likely. 

For Polish forces to side with Russia, or start a civil conflict, they would need to want more authoritarianism.

The place may well be experiencing serious social and political instability.

But that would simply equate to jumping "out of the frying pan and into the fire."

Again, an attack on Poland would trigger Article 5, meaning collective defense from all NATO members.

[Kurokage]

Who is claiming Russia is doing great.  The Ukraine is literally fighting to the last man.  When the Ukraine has burnt through those that can realistically fight, what then.

Where did I say they that? I just posted a link to the actual data confirming Russia's losses. 

The Russian propaganda machine is in over drive to cover up it's losses against Ukraine.  Yes, they will probably win eventually, but it will be at a massive cost to Russia. Other than with Nukes, Russia will struggle fighting any decent military for years to come.

[WallFlowerActive]

Where did I say they that? I just posted a link to the actual data confirming Russia's losses. 

The Russian propaganda machine is in over drive to cover up its losses against Ukraine.  Yes, they will probably win eventually, but it will be at a massive cost to Russia. Other than with Nukes, Russia will struggle fighting any decent military for years to come.

Shrugs..

[UltraBudgie]

From the NY Times today:

...The Kremlin’s summer offensive, which was aimed at capturing all of Donetsk, produced limited gains. But starting in the fall, the tide there started to turn in Russia’s favor. After months of bombarding Pokrovsk with artillery, drones and glide bombs, Russian forces punched through a string of villages and settlements to fight their way into the city.

“Things started to fall apart a bit on our side” starting in September, said Ihor, a Ukrainian drone pilot in the area who gave only his first name, according to military protocol. “The line just began collapsing from exhaustion.”

Russian forces are sending fixed-wing Molniya drones and waves of mini kamikaze drones that carry explosives, he said, adding that Ukraine had nothing comparable in mass production.

The current push for a peace plan is “all bluff,” he said, adding that as long as the Russians have “the ability to press us, they will keep pressing.”

At the same time, Russian forces have taken aim at other critical cities in Donetsk, including Kostiantynivka and Lyman.

Oleh Voitsekhovskyi, a Ukrainian captain whose unit is near Lyman, said Russian forces were attacking “all the time” and “along all directions.”

Drone strikes, shelling — it never stops, he said. “In the last two months,” he added, “you can feel an increase in the intensity of hostilities.”

Russian forces move in small groups, he said, as Ukrainian drones keep watch overhead. Heavy fog has made it harder for the drones to fend off the Russians.

Russia’s push toward Kostiantynivka, though, has so far failed to yield much in the way of territorial gains, the DeepState map shows. The same can be said for Lyman.

That has put more emphasis and urgency on Pokrovsk.

A thick fog descends there every day, accompanying “the smell of burned coal and the smell of gunpowder that has a hint of manganese, like at a firing range,” said Maksym Bakulin, who is with the 14th Operational Brigade of the National Guard.

While the city was “alive” a year ago, he added, Pokrovsk’s once bustling streets now have “civilian bodies and military bodies mixed together, with no possibility to retrieve them.”

Russian forces see Pokrovsk as a steppingstone toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, two heavily fortified cities in Donetsk that Ukraine still controls.

Some analysts have questioned Ukraine’s decision to keep fighting in Pokrovsk and incur heavy losses there. Analysts and some Ukrainian soldiers have said Kyiv may be trying to hold on to avoid feeding Russia’s narrative of inevitable victory as peace talks heat up. Staying in Pokrovsk could also increase Russian forces’ losses.

As Ukraine concentrated so many resources on that battle, analysts say, Russian forces spotted an opportunity elsewhere on the 75-mile-long front line, in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region.

Russian forces made a relatively quick march there in recent weeks, seizing about 75 square miles around the city of Huliaipole in November, nearly 40 percent of Moscow’s total territorial gains last month, according to DeepState.

Ukraine has sent some reserves to the area, which has helped slow the advance, “but still the pace there is relatively alarming,” said Mr. Kastehelmi, the analyst.

The onset of winter could reduce the pace of Russia’s advances along the broader front, and also Ukrainian movements. The preponderance of drones is slowing things down even further, forcing a shift away from infantry-heavy attacks. Because of the drones, the front line is less of a line and more of a patch of land, what soldiers call a “kill zone,” up to 15 miles wide in places.

But Russia has a seemingly endless spigot of soldiers and a willingness to absorb heavy losses in a style of warfare that has been likened to a meat grinder.

“Russia has committed itself to a war of attrition, and they are currently trying to militarily break Ukraine, slowly,” Mr. Kastehelmi said.

As the 18-month battle for Pokrovsk seemingly enters its final stages, fears have risen for the neighboring city of Myrnohrad.

Russia is storming Ukrainian positions there daily, said Oleh, a sergeant platoon commander in the area who also would give only his first name per military protocol. Drones have turned the roads in and out into death traps.

“Neither by day nor by night do they give us peace,” Oleh said.

He marveled at Russia’s resources, including night vision, resupply aircraft and soldiers.

“If we have three people, they have 30,” he said. “How much manpower they have is just unreal.”

“But,” he added, “they also did not expect that we would fight for so long.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/06/world...ussia.html

Wouldn't it make more sense for Putin to take the 1/3 of Ukraine that is more Russia-aligned, and leave the remaining 2/3 as a buffer state? I'm not sure why he would want the headache of taking Kiev and the rest and being right on NATO's doorstep. Especially when he can extract security concessions (eg, no NATO troops or membership) by simply allowing it to continue existing.

[WallFlowerActive]

But i don't think a civil war in Poland is likely. 

Don’t underestimate Putin being Ex KGB.  And don’t overestimate those that can be bought or still have ties to the KGB.  Just takes the right assassination.  Then another market for weapons and weapons development with room for corruption.

[WallFlowerActive]

From the NY Times today:

[Image: https://denyignorance.com/uploader/image...0f462f.png]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/06/world...ussia.html

Wouldn't it make more sense for Putin to take the 1/3 of Ukraine that is more Russia-aligned, and leave the remaining 2/3 as a buffer state? I'm not sure why he would want the headache of taking Kiev and the rest and being right on NATO's doorstep. Especially when he can extract security concessions (eg, no NATO troops or membership) by simply allowing it to continue existing.

If the men coming of fighting age are leaving.  With many that left the Ukrainian not coming back.  I’d say there wouldn’t be much resistance left if Putin wins the war by force.

[andy06shake]

Don’t underestimate Putin being Ex KGB.  And don’t overestimate those that can be bought or still have ties to the KGB.  Just takes the right assassination.  Then another market for weapons and weapons development with room for corruption.

I think the problem is that we all underestimated Putin.

The issue with assassinating is the replacement.

Not to mention the fact that it creates martyrs....

I suggest the majority of the planet constitutes a market for weapons in this day of age.

[Kurokage]

Shrugs..

We could this all day and Shrugs back....
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/06/18/...in-ukraine

‘Better than ending up under a bush in Ukraine’ How Russian army deserters are getting themselves sent to prison to avoid being sent back to war.

With fleeing the country out of reach for many, some Russian deserters have turned to a new tactic to avoid being sent back to the war in Ukraine — getting locked up. Their lawyers have the unusual task of making sure their clients face charges that result in real prison sentences, since probation could mean being sent straight back to the front. The independent outlet iStories learned how Russian soldiers deliberately go AWOL to trigger criminal prosecution. Meduza shares an abridged translation of the outlet’s reporting.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/09/2...ers-a89818

‘I’d Never Make it Home Alive’: Russia’s War in Ukraine Turns Conscripts Into Deserters

"I never signed a contract, despite the command encouraging us to do so from the very beginning,” Vasilyev told The Moscow Times in an interview from Yerevan, Armenia, where he now lives in hiding. “I cried. I wrote reports saying I didn’t want to serve. But it was all for nothing.”
At least 50,000 Russian soldiers have fled the military since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to leaked data published in May by the exiled outlet IStories.
Among them is a growing number of conscripts: young men, often poor and from remote regions, who say they were forced into contracts they never agreed to sign, and then sent to fight.

For Nikita Zvezdov, a 19-year-old who was drafted in June 2024 after being expelled from technical college, the choice was similarly stark.
“The command was organizing conscripts into units. Every six months, trucks arrived to take them to the front. Some hoped they would be paid, but in the end they would receive 2,000 rubles [$24] a month,” he told The Moscow Times.
 
He recalled a commander who regularly shot conscripts with rubber bullets. Some soldiers suffered heart attacks or mental breakdowns. At least one died by suicide.
Eventually, under relentless pressure, Zvezdov signed a contract in September 2024. By October, he was at the Bikinsky training range, digging waste pits and burning trash under the scorching sun while awaiting orders for deployment to Mariupol or Melitopol.
“The commander changed our deployment plans daily: Mariupol, Melitopol; November, then December,” he said. “Finally, he said we had two weeks left. I thought about stepping on a landmine or injuring myself. I realized I’d never make it home alive.”
After convincing his officers to grant him short leave to “say farewells to relatives,” he decided to leave the country.