Trump says he bombed Iran

[EXETER]

I think that the "fuel price" gimmickry is getting very stale.

The issue of Iran as an irreplaceable component of global oil stocks is very much a matter of opinion.

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As far as I have seen... the US oil situation is almost unchanged... except for the profiteering prompted by the news cycle.

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Last year (2025) Iran produced about 3.3 million barrels per day of oil.  About 90% of that went to China though the Strait of Hormuz.  So, stopping Iran's oil from being shipped affects China, mostly and initially.  However, that's around 20% of China's need, and that's too much for them to ignore, so China would have to make that up by buying additional oil on the international market.  Since the oil market is global, that immediate increase in global demand relative to supply would drive up the price for everyone.  When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, that took almost the same amount of oil (3 million per day) out of the international market immediately and that shock ended up causing gasoline prices in the US to peak at about 5 dollars per gallon in June of 2022, about 4 months after the shock occurred.  It takes time for the effects of a sudden shock to work its way through the supply chain.  Nevertheless, oil shot up to about 100$ per barrel very quickly which is very comparable to the 120$ per barrel we have seen within the last week.  

And yes, the US situation is going to be slower to react because we actually produce a small excess of oil and natural gas compared to our needs.  However, US oil and gas is also sold on the international market, so when the petroleum shortage finally gets felt by all the consumers around the world, US producers are not going to sell their products domestically for a lower price than they can get internationally, and US consumers will end up paying more for those products, just like everyone else in the world.

But the 3.3 million barrels per day was about 3% of the world's consumption before the war and that is small potatoes compared to the approximately 20 million barrels per day that was going through the Strait of Hormuz from the Arab oil producers which has now stopped.  That's why some analysts predict that oil will go to 200$ per barrel when that shock works its way through the supply chain.  There's simply no way to replace that amount of oil.

And that doesn't count the disruption of Liquified Natural Gas (mostly from Qatar and the UAE) which amounted to about 20% of the world's supply which has also now stopped going through the Strait of Hormuz.

And THAT doesn't even count the 33% of the world's supply of Nitrogen-rich fertilizer (Urea) which has stopped going through the Strait.  Many nations depend on the availability of Urea every growing season to avoid food shortage/starvation.  China, for example.  And right now is the beginning of fertilizer season in the Northern Hemisphere.

And THAT still doesn't count the 45% of the world's supply of sulfur that normally goes through the Strait which has now stopped.  Sulfur is absolutely essential in the manufacture of many industrial products we take for granted, like Phosphate fertilizer, Copper, steel, pharmaceuticals, paper, and on and on.

If somehow the war magically ended today and no more infrastructure was destroyed, we are looking at maybe getting back to something like normal in a year or so.  But it's not magically ending any time soon.  

We're hosed.