US-Iran War Mudpit Thread

[cherokeetroy]

"Iowa farmer: We've had this huge jump in fertilizer prices because of this conflict. With 30% of fertilizer coming through the Strait or Hormuz, we've only been in conflict for 12 days here, and our fertilizer costs have jumped 77%"

https://x.com/HQNewsNow/status/2031812208938590717?s=20

"Good piece on Bloomberg Intelligence and for those with HELIUM exposure. • Qatar’s shutdown of LNG production has taken about a third of global helium production offline, affecting chipmakers who rely on helium for semiconductor manufacturing. • Helium has no viable substitute in the chip manufacturing process, and no other source can immediately replace Qatar's supply, with helium containers already filled before the war remaining stranded • If the disruption persists, helium shortages could force chipmakers to deprioritise lower-margin product lines, reinforcing the existing allocation toward AI memory and deepening an already severe memory shortage"

https://x.com/baroninvestment/status/203...24431?s=20

"BREAKING: The IEA says the IRAN WAR has caused the largest oil market disruption in human history. The agency warns it will take weeks or even months for production to return to normal because vital oil fields in the Middle East have been shut down. Even if the fighting stops today, the damage to infrastructure and a lack of workers means the global oil supply will remain crippled for a long time."

https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/203202...82422?s=20

[SomeStupidName]

"Iraq says its oil ports have completely stopped operations after Iranian attacks on crude tankers"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-12/o.../106446794

"President Trump authorized the Department of Energy to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, beginning next week. This will take approximately 120 days to deliver based on planned discharge rates."

https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-s...um-reserve

Looks like Iraq is trying to reopen some older pipelines that lead to safer ports, maybe us and other countries releasing some reserves can buy them some time to get that going.

https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/ir...rmuz-risks

[SomeStupidName]

Then you don't understand it.

UK citizens have the right to free speech under the Human Rights Act of 1998.

But we have laws against hate speech, incitement to violence, defamation, or terrorism-related speech.

You can say as you please, as long as you are not trying to incite hate or violence towards others.

Any speech can incite violence when dealing with unhinged people. Remember it's a 2 way street what happens when the current administration changes and those same bs laws are used against the people who currently hide behind them?

[SomeStupidName]

Cat got your tongue?

I understand. Unlike some of the more simpleminded ideologues who congregate here, you have brains enough to understand what has happened. 

Don & Bibi’s Excellent Adventure has bombed, and not the way they think. US-sponsored regime change has succeeded only in replacing one Ayatollah Khamenei with another. Even as your windbag of a President declares victory, Iran continues to fulfil its strategic objectives The Straits of Hormuz remain closed. Iranian drones and missiles continue to blast targets in the Gulf and in Israel. The Iranians, amazingly, have won.

No wonder you haven't got a word to say for yourself. Can’t say I sympathise, but I do understand.

lol, we haven't lost yet. You still have 2 squeals to get through to see that.

[SomeStupidName]

"Even if the fighting stops today, the damage to infrastructure and a lack of workers means the global oil supply will remain crippled for a long time."

 We can start sending deportees that way if they need workers....

[WallFlowerActive]

But we have laws against hate speech, incitement to violence, defamation, or terrorism-related speech.

People in Iran that want free speech are the ones that are the terrorists and those practicing hate speech to the Iranian government.

[CriticalStinker]

Looks like Iraq is trying to reopen some older pipelines that lead to safer ports, maybe us and other countries releasing some reserves can buy them some time to get that going.

https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/ir...rmuz-risks

I think the release of the strategic reserves was far, far too early. 

I know ours is still depleted from Biden, but the other aspect is oil is only about 50% higher at spot right now. Yea it sucks to pay more at the pump, and there is an effect on goods for shipping costs… But the oil that leaves the strait is still a month away at least from being in the supply chain as petrol or diesel.

So what does that mean? The market hasn’t even seen the full effects. Were two weeks in, so all of the global supply right now is pre conflict.

If we use the strategic reserve now, we don’t have as much ammo to mitigate when things actually get tough.

To your point on the pipeline for Iraq, unless you’re thinking of another one, that one goes to the Red Sea, which very well may be the next target for Iran/Houthis. Let’s assume that doesn’t happen, it’s about 1.6m barrels per day capacity, less than half of pre conflict output for Iraq.

The whole situation reminds me of COVID, except this could have been anticipated more. The whole world is tapping massive reserves early, blowing their load. And if the conflict doesn’t end in a few weeks, that’s when we see the real pain. But we already used our cards early when it didn’t even sting yet.

[Kwaka]

Max Igan does have an epic rage on this one. Lots of bad language.

[SomeStupidName]

I think the release of the strategic reserves was far, far too early. 

I know ours is still depleted from Biden, but the other aspect is oil is only about 50% higher at spot right now. Yea it sucks to pay more at the pump, and there is an effect on goods for shipping costs… But the oil that leaves the strait is still a month away at least from being in the supply chain as petrol or diesel.

So what does that mean? The market hasn’t even seen the full effects. Were two weeks in, so all of the global supply right now is pre conflict.

If we use the strategic reserve now, we don’t have as much ammo to mitigate when things actually get tough.

To your point on the pipeline for Iraq, unless you’re thinking of another one, that one goes to the Red Sea, which very well may be the next target for Iran/Houthis. Let’s assume that doesn’t happen, it’s about 1.6m barrels per day capacity, less than half of pre conflict output for Iraq.

The whole situation reminds me of COVID, except this could have been anticipated more. The whole world is tapping massive reserves early, blowing their load. And if the conflict doesn’t end in a few weeks, that’s when we see the real pain. But we already used our cards early when it didn’t even sting yet.

I do agree people are acting like panicans, just like during covid. We should have waiting to release those reserves. 

Yes one goes to the Red sea and another to the Mediterranean. I think Iran is more wounded than these panicans on here think. I have doubts on if they can hit further targets and the further the target from launch the easier it is to shoot down.

I could be wrong but we'll see what happens.

[CriticalStinker]

I do agree people are acting like panicans, just like during covid. We should have waiting to release those reserves. 

Yes one goes to the Red sea and another to the Mediterranean. I think Iran is more wounded than these panicans on here think. I have doubts on if they can hit further targets and the further the target from launch the easier it is to shoot down.

I could be wrong but we'll see what happens.

I don’t think pointing out that the strait is closed is being a panican, it’s just recognizing something that is a thing.

thats 20%~ of the world oil, 30%~ of urea (for fertilizer), and that’s just the necessities. Then you have sulfur and other derivatives from the oil and natural gas.

Luckily the Red Sea is right next door, so some of it can be shifted, but a lot can’t.

skepticism this is all just going to go away isn’t unfounded either. Saudi Arabia pounded Yemen and the Houthis for years. We came in after and still couldn’t put them down from the air. They’re a non state actor in one of the poorest countries on earth.

There is no doubt that we have pounded Iran and set them back. But they’re engaged in asymmetrical warfare. They don’t have to equal the US and Israel militarily. They just have to keep enough capability to disrupt.