Trump says he bombed Iran

[putnam6]

Mossad Commentary
@MOSSADil
·
24m
‼️ JUST IN:
U.S. forces have launched a rescue operation for the second pilot of the downed F-15E in Iran’s Yasuj region.

Clashes erupted between American special forces and Basij terrorists, with heavy casualties reported among the Basij terrorists.

[EXETER]

The point is that the Strait wasn't opened after a couple of days

and I was the one ridiculed for predicting it to remain closed for a few weeks

Now you're calling me an extremist for believing the consequence of Trump’s little excursion will be global energy crisis coupled with economic collapse 

We'll see just how much of an extremist I am

You're probably not extremist enough.

One of the analysts I pay attention to all the time is geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan.  He's not always right about everything he predicts, but he's extremely well connected through his own network of informants and always does an intelligent deep dive into any given situation. 

A point he made this morning on his podcast is that the prospects for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz by military force and against the will of Iran are effectively zero.  That's because of the immense size of the task.  It's true that Iran's Navy and Air Force are gone, but they are not needed to bring shipping in the Strait to a halt.  Shahed drones and short range ballistic missiles will do the trick, and they will have enough of those for a long, long time.  

These kinds of weapons have a range of at least 200 miles, and can be deployed anywhere along the Iranian coastline from the border with Iraq in the north, to the border with Pakistan, in the south and still be able to target commercial shipping.  So in order to eliminate that threat by military force against an Iranian resistance, you would have to invade, occupy, and control the Iranian coastline to a distance of about 200 miles inland.  

That's an area approximately the size of the state of California.  

That would require an amphibious assault and landing at least as big as or bigger than the Normandy landing during WWII, approaching through the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf.

What Donald Trump (and apparently many of his supporters) don't seem to realize is that there is precisely one military power on the planet that could even attempt that task, and that is the USA.  And that is because we are the only military power on the planet that has had both the economic capacity and the strategic policy for the last 80 years to create what has been called the Pax Americana (and which some people refer to as "being the world's policeman"). That capability includes 11 nuclear powered aircraft carriers, 9 amphibious assault vehicles with their attendant Marine Expeditionary Units and all the combat aircraft and amphibious landing craft that go along with that capability.  In addition, to support that kind of capability in extended combat,  the US has established forward positioned logistics and repair bases in allied countries all over the world, in places like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Diego Garcia, etc., etc.  And on top of that, we have a huge fleet of C-5, C-17, and C-130 cargo transport aircraft that can move major military hardware to anywhere on the planet where there is a secured airstrip.  This is what is needed for force projection on a global scale.

The only other navies in the world that have any capability of operating outside of their home waters are the UK, Japan, and France, and their total capacity for that kind of thing is less than what the US already has in the mideast theater.  

So when Trump gets up and says the US will leave the area without restoring shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and that it will be up to the other nations that get oil through there to go in and "take the oil", those other countries know that Trump's mind is no longer tethered to reality.  

And if the US were to try to reopen the Strait by military force, it would be very expensive in terms of dollars and lives lost, take a long time, and wouldn't necessarily succeed, in the end.  And this is exactly why every military and intelligence community adviser to every POTUS before Trump has strongly advised that POTUS to NOT get involved in a conflict that could close the Strait of Hormuz and why every POTUS except Trump has followed that advice.  But Trump claims that "nobody knew" this so he went ahead and played his hunch, followed his gut feeling and precipitated the situation that we are now in.  

At the moment, Iran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz.  They have closed off the main shipping routes through the center of the Strait with mines and are now charging a toll for commercial ships that they approve of to go through a passage inside their territorial waters sheltered by an island on their side of the Strait.  They are now making more money off shipping through the Strait than they were before the war (sorry, "special military operation") began.  If the US pulled out tomorrow, none of the other players in the area (like Israel or the Arab gulf states) would be militarily strong enough to dislodge Iran from this position.  The European and Asian customers for mideast oil would almost certainly cut deals with Iran that ensured that Iran would effectively control mideast oil, liquified natural gas, fertilizer, and aluminum for the foreseeable future--including those commodities that originate from the Arab gulf states. This is why the Arab gulf states are lobbying Trump strongly behind the scenes to not leave until the "job is done". 

However, as is argued above, there is no guarantee that the job could ever be done in a way that would result in a different outcome.  It would simply take longer and cost more to arrive at the same result.  

Another fine mess.

[putnam6]

[/quote]
Mossad Commentary
@MOSSADil
·
14m
‼️ JUST IN:
Iranian state media claims U.S. A-10 Thunderbolt aircraft repeatedly struck Basij and IRGC convoys in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad as they attempted to capture a downed U.S. pilot. Heavy U.S. strikes reportedly prevented them from reaching the pilot.

Stay connected, follow
@MOSSADil
.[/quote]

[putnam6]

[LAB],
Faytuks TranslatorRole icon, Staff Member
APP
— 11:06 PM
https://x.com/tobyharnden/status/2040600194543136951

tobyharnden
The missing WSO from the shot-down USAF F-15E is now safe and back in American hands. An officer involved in monitoring the CSAR in southern Iran describing the aviator’s incredible tenacity: “He evaded up a 7k ridge. They’ve been schwackin’ dudes chasing him all day. Was nuts.” #iran #csar
Source
https://x.com/tobyharnden/status/2040600194543136951
Today at 9:19 PM



Apranik ????
@patriot_apranik
·
36m
? The absolute collapse of IRGC's Resistance Axis!

The IDF has released interrogations of captured Hezbollah terrorists from the so-called "elite" Radwan force. Their confessions are hilarious:

? “We are forced to fight just to avenge Khamenei.”
? “Our commanders treat us like dogs sending other dogs to die.”
? “Everyone is just hiding, waiting to surrender to survive.”

The Islamic regime spent billions building a fake army of cowards. The terrorists are begging to surrender. Their collapse is here!

[KrustyKrab]

You're probably not extremist enough.

One of the analysts I pay attention to all the time is geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan.  He's not always right about everything he predicts, but he's extremely well connected through his own network of informants and always does an intelligent deep dive into any given situation. 

A point he made this morning on his podcast is that the prospects for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz by military force and against the will of Iran are effectively zero.  That's because of the immense size of the task.  It's true that Iran's Navy and Air Force are gone, but they are not needed to bring shipping in the Strait to a halt.  Shahed drones and short range ballistic missiles will do the trick, and they will have enough of those for a long, long time.  

These kinds of weapons have a range of at least 200 miles, and can be deployed anywhere along the Iranian coastline from the border with Iraq in the north, to the border with Pakistan, in the south and still be able to target commercial shipping.  So in order to eliminate that threat by military force against an Iranian resistance, you would have to invade, occupy, and control the Iranian coastline to a distance of about 200 miles inland.  

That's an area approximately the size of the state of California.  

That would require an amphibious assault and landing at least as big as or bigger than the Normandy landing during WWII, approaching through the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf.

What Donald Trump (and apparently many of his supporters) don't seem to realize is that there is precisely one military power on the planet that could even attempt that task, and that is the USA.  And that is because we are the only military power on the planet that has had both the economic capacity and the strategic policy for the last 80 years to create what has been called the Pax Americana (and which some people refer to as "being the world's policeman"). That capability includes 11 nuclear powered aircraft carriers, 9 amphibious assault vehicles with their attendant Marine Expeditionary Units and all the combat aircraft and amphibious landing craft that go along with that capability.  In addition, to support that kind of capability in extended combat,  the US has established forward positioned logistics and repair bases in allied countries all over the world, in places like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Diego Garcia, etc., etc.  And on top of that, we have a huge fleet of C-5, C-17, and C-130 cargo transport aircraft that can move major military hardware to anywhere on the planet where there is a secured airstrip.  This is what is needed for force projection on a global scale.

The only other navies in the world that have any capability of operating outside of their home waters are the UK, Japan, and France, and their total capacity for that kind of thing is less than what the US already has in the mideast theater.  

So when Trump gets up and says the US will leave the area without restoring shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and that it will be up to the other nations that get oil through there to go in and "take the oil", those other countries know that Trump's mind is no longer tethered to reality.  

And if the US were to try to reopen the Strait by military force, it would be very expensive in terms of dollars and lives lost, take a long time, and wouldn't necessarily succeed, in the end.  And this is exactly why every military and intelligence community adviser to every POTUS before Trump has strongly advised that POTUS to NOT get involved in a conflict that could close the Strait of Hormuz and why every POTUS except Trump has followed that advice.  But Trump claims that "nobody knew" this so he went ahead and played his hunch, followed his gut feeling and precipitated the situation that we are now in.  

At the moment, Iran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz.  They have closed off the main shipping routes through the center of the Strait with mines and are now charging a toll for commercial ships that they approve of to go through a passage inside their territorial waters sheltered by an island on their side of the Strait.  They are now making more money off shipping through the Strait than they were before the war (sorry, "special military operation") began.  If the US pulled out tomorrow, none of the other players in the area (like Israel or the Arab gulf states) would be militarily strong enough to dislodge Iran from this position.  The European and Asian customers for mideast oil would almost certainly cut deals with Iran that ensured that Iran would effectively control mideast oil, liquified natural gas, fertilizer, and aluminum for the foreseeable future--including those commodities that originate from the Arab gulf states. This is why the Arab gulf states are lobbying Trump strongly behind the scenes to not leave until the "job is done". 

However, as is argued above, there is no guarantee that the job could ever be done in a way that would result in a different outcome.  It would simply take longer and cost more to arrive at the same result.  

Another fine mess.

Nice armchair quarterback.  But….. Trump will keep bombimg them until they open the Strait.  It might not fit his or your timeline but it will be opened to all traffic.  When Trump says he’ll bomb them back into the Stone Age until they do, believe him, he’s pretty damn good at doing what he says. 

Will you come back and say you were wrong when he does?

[Mantiss2021]

If Israel (and/or the US) were to actually hit Iran's nuclear reactor, causing a release of radiation...

Would that persuade Russia,  China, Pakistan, or North Korea to provide Iran with nuclear weapons?

Or,  at least the means to immediately produce their own devices? 


Guess we'll find out in less than 48 hours.


Unless "T.A.C.O."...

[Bush Master]

[Thetruth]

 he’s pretty damn good at doing what he says. 

No more wars?
Release the Epstein  files?
End Ukraine  war un 2 days?
Lower inflation?


Yeah...no

[Kurokage]

YOU PEOPLE, yes YOU, have been so conditioned to believe that politicians must speak a certain way.

Well, we've had decades of the same annoying drivel with zero results.

Finally, someone is doing something and that upsets your little apple carts!

Yep he's finally turning America into the worlds biggest joke, and piling on so much debt whilst he's at it, your children's. children's, children's children will be born into debt slavery.

The country Trump totally destroyed two weeks ago are still launching missiles and drones and holding the Straits, is that the something he's doing??? 

[putnam6]

Tom Kratman
@TKratman
·
8h
From Martin Iles, reposted:

Having lived in the USA for nearly two years, I've realised something.

The USA and the remainder of the Western world are no longer aligned.

We all laugh and mock when the Americans say, "Freedom!" because we truly think we're as free as they are.

Wrong. We're not. Not even close.

The laws, the mindset, and the behaviour, is totally different in this regard.

Most of all, the governments are totally different. The USA's convictions around core freedoms are on a scale we do not share.

Meanwhile,

Donald Trump wins the popular vote, the electoral college, the House, and the Senate... a man who, in every other Western country, is held in open derision, if not contempt.

For the[i]se and other reasons, we are not the same.

Yet the West, including Australia, fully expect to rely on the USA for our very survival.

If the world turns bad (which will happen - only a question of time), then the whole West, without America, is toast.[/i]

So, you may ask - if we're not very aligned ideologically, then it must be that we bring something to the party militarily?

Well, no... actually... we don't matter that much militarily.

The USA has about 470 ships in its navy, including 11 aircraft carriers, 69 submarines, 75 destroyers... plus 110 new ships in the pipeline.

Australia has about 30, including 3 destroyers, 7 frigates and 7 outdated submarines. The UK does a little better, with about 60.

Meanwhile, the US has over 14,000 military aircraft. A staggering number.

Australia has 252 military aircraft. The UK has 556.

The US army has just shy of 1,000,000 uniformed personnel in its military. Australia has about 45,000.
The USA spends 3.4% ($968 billion) of its GDP on defence. Australia spends 2% ($36.4 billion). The US spends as much as the next 15 largest military-spending countries (including China) combined.

The USA has a fighting culture. The men shoot things (a lot) and hunt things, the veterans get favoured in everything from parking spots to boarding planes. A uniformed young man is thanked in the street a dozen times a day.

"Oh, the Americans and their guns!" we say, in our smug way. Yes, they have a warrior culture. We do not. We don't have to, because we're a leech on theirs.

How many young British men are willing to fight for their country? Now ask the same regarding young American men. The difference is about as wide as it could be.

Militarily, we don't offer squat.

Meanwhile, look at the way Australia works against America's interests by loving on China. China made us rich and we stay close. This is a Marxist regime with expansionist aims.

Again, you have to spend time in the USA to realise just how vast a gulf there is between us on China.

Europe, too. They let China have their way everywhere from Germany to Greenland, all the while importing Islam and sending their own people to court for saying hurty words.

Somehow, we have landed the deal of a lifetime with the USA that says, "when the baddies come, you'll save us ok?" Because we can't save ourselves.

And we live in peace. But we keep gnawing away at freedoms, keep enabling China, and get flabby and disinterested about our military because Uncle Sam's got it.

And, let's be honest, Americans are widely looked down on. To add insult to injury, we don't think that highly of our protectors.

So, the USA is finally saying "enough." I am here, I can tell you what the vibe is, and that's it. Trump is doing what people want in this regard. They're over it.

And we come across all shocked and hard done by. We behave like people with no self-insight at all.

Yes, the global alliance system is all over the place now. From America's perspective, it's about time.

And I must say, though I be a proud Australian, I am forced to agree. Something has to change.