Trump Announces Alaska Summit with Putin

[andy06shake]

Bottom line, Putin isn't giving back all of the captured territory...period 

What are you prepared to do about it? minimum full financing and military aid for the next 18 months.

Where does Ukraine make a breakthrough and capture territory in Donetsk 

Me, im prepared to do about as much as yourself. 

Sit back and spectate at my age.

They will always find money for war putman6.

All they need to do is find more than Russia. 

As to when Ukraine makes a breakthrough and captures territory in Donetsk, i dont have a clue.

About the same to similar time as Russia captures Kyiv?

[DBCowboy]

The only way Ukraine reclaims all its land is if Russia is defeated militarily, economically, and politically.

Now who is ready for an all-out assault on Russia?

[andy06shake]

Russia has 14 million aged of 18-25. Ukraine has 3 million.

Estimates of Russian losses range between 164 thousand (BBC estimate) and 1068 thousand (Ukraine Armed Forces estimate).

Estimates of Ukrainian losses range between 45 thousand (Zelensky estimate) and 400 thousand (Donald Trump estimate).

If it's a war of attrition, Russia is in the better position. However, in all likelihood, none of these numbers have any relationship to reality.

Population numbers do indeed make Russia look like it has more manpower.

But wars aren't just about who has more young people.

Russia's bigger pool doesn't automatically mean it would win a war of attrition.

Morale, training, and logistics, never mind technology, play their part in that game also. 

And Ukraine might be smaller, but it's got highly motivated forces and external support by way of NATO and its other allies.

Plus, not all of Russia's 18–25-year-olds are available or willing/able to fight.

I would not wish to send my children off to the front lines to die for Putin's wet dream, and i dont know anybody sane that would.

[putnam6]

The only way Ukraine reclaims all its last is if Russia is defeated militarily, economically, and politically.

Now who is ready for an all-out assault on Russia?

Exactomundo 

Thank you for succinctly verbalizing the point.

Ukraine being able to offensively counterattack and win back all the lost territories would cost triple the losses already incurred. Even before that tipping point was crossed, Putin would be slinging missiles into civilian populations, etc.

It would cost billions, kill millions combined, and take 5 years or longer 

Putin is facing very little internal pressure is the problem... and is why even a slow-motion Russian collapse cripples Ukraine further.

I'd rather make peace... and have America, NATO, and Ukraine begin preparing for the next one. 

NATO Europe needs larger standing military forces to counter Russia in the region, instead of relying on American BDE 

IF Europe was strong militarily and not attached to Russia so firmly economically, Putin wouldn't have invaded at all. European AND American weakness led to Putin rolling the dice.

[IDELB2006]

Yeah Montgomery, tell me about all those successful Ukrainian counteroffensives

FFS Ukraine would need 5 times the offensive counterattack results they territorial reclaimation they have accomplished so far... 5 times!!! 3 years minimum, and lets remember most of the territory regained was likely a feint by Russia, they invaded everywhere towards Kyiv knowing they could always fall back to the territories occupied now. 

REALITY not fantasy, Ukraine doesn't have the man power nor the actual battle plans to take back the territory and Im tired pretending we can spend to a military victory for Ukraine.

If we could, I gladly would do so. 

It's not feasible, LOL nobody has a plan either...

But yeah, let's send billions more 

Try to calm down.

I'm not making any fantastic claims.

I'm only quoting you. Are you that wrong?

[Oldcarpy2]

Exactomundo 

Thank you for succinctly verbalizing the point.

Ukraine being able to offensively counterattack and win back all the lost territories would cost triple the losses already incurred. Even before that tipping point was crossed, Putin would be slinging missiles into civilian populations, etc.

It would cost billions, kill millions combined, and take 5 years or longer 

Putin is facing very little internal pressure is the problem... and is why even a slow-motion Russian collapse cripples Ukraine further.

I'd rather make peace... and have America, NATO, and Ukraine begin preparing for the next one. 

NATO Europe needs larger standing military forces to counter Russia in the region, instead of relying on American BDE 

IF Europe was strong militarily and not attached to Russia so firmly economically, Putin wouldn't have invaded at all. European AND American weakness led to Putin rolling the dice.

Of course they can't recover lost territory.

But you conveniently forget that in exchange for Ukraine giving up it's nukes, the US agreed to protect its sovereign integrity.

[DBCowboy]

 

But you conveniently forget that in exchange for Ukraine giving up it's nukes, the US agreed to protect its sovereign integrity.

Obama then Biden fucked that up.

See my "above" post for what would be needed to rectify their fuck ups.

[putnam6]

Then how come, in the real World, they aren't making more progress?

Silly rabbit, Russia is already at 70% of its stated territorial goals, tell me how close is Ukraine to taking back those territories?
 

Russia’s Strategic Posture (April–August 2025)

• Defensive Consolidation: Russia has focused on fortifying its control over occupied territories, particularly in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, which it claims as annexed regions. This includes reinforcing defensive lines, increasing troop deployments (e.g., 20,000 additional troops from January to April 2025), and leveraging support from allies like North Korea for fortifications and munitions. The emphasis on defenses is partly a response to Ukrainian counteroffensives, such as Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August 2024, which exposed vulnerabilities and required Russia to bolster its positions.
  
• Limited Offensives: Despite a defensive focus, Russia has continued offensive operations, particularly around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vuhledar in Donetsk. From January to April 2025, Russia gained approximately 1,627 square kilometers, mostly in Donetsk, at a high cost (99 casualties per square kilometer). These gains indicate Russia is still pursuing territorial expansion, though at a slower pace due to Ukrainian resistance and resource constraints. The lack of large-scale counteroffensives may reflect Russia’s prioritization of holding and incrementally expanding its current holdings over risky, large-scale operations.
  
• Territorial Goals Not Fully Met: Russia’s stated objectives include full control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, as reiterated by Russian officials in August 2025 ahead of the Alaska summit. While Russia controls nearly all of Luhansk and significant portions of Donetsk, it holds only about 70% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, with Ukraine fiercely contesting the remaining areas. Russia’s territorial ambitions remain unfulfilled, particularly in securing the entire Donbas and a land corridor to Crimea.
  

Why Negotiate Despite Unmet Territorial Goals?Russia’s willingness to engage in negotiations, as seen in talks in Istanbul in May and June 2025 and discussions with the U.S. at the Alaska summit in August 2025, despite not achieving its full territorial objectives, can be attributed to several strategic, economic, and diplomatic factors:

1. Military and Economic Pressures:
   • High Casualties and Resource Strain: Russia has sustained significant losses, with reports of 60,000 casualties in July 2025 alone and a cumulative total of over 600,000 casualties since the invasion began. The high cost of incremental gains (e.g., 99 casualties per square kilometer) and reliance on volunteer recruitment and foreign support (e.g., North Korea, Iran) suggest Russia’s military resources are stretched. Negotiations could provide a respite to regroup and stabilize its economy, which, while resilient, faces challenges from sanctions and a projected slowdown in growth.
     
   • Sanctions and Economic Leverage: Western sanctions continue to pressure Russia’s economy, particularly its energy sector. The U.S. has signaled potential for harsher sanctions or tariff adjustments post-Alaska summit if Russia does not engage in serious talks. Russia may see negotiations as a way to secure partial sanctions relief, as proposed in Putin’s offer discussed at the Alaska summit, where Russia sought the lifting of some sanctions in exchange for territorial concessions.
     
2. Diplomatic Opportunities and Posturing:
   • Leveraging U.S. Involvement: The re-election of Donald Trump and his push for a quick resolution to the conflict have created a diplomatic window. Russia has engaged with U.S. officials, including Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, to explore deals that could formalize its control over occupied territories (e.g., Crimea and parts of Donbas) while ceding smaller, less strategic areas like parts of Sumy and Kharkiv. Russia’s participation in talks, such as those in Istanbul, allows it to portray itself as a global power negotiating on equal terms with the U.S., as seen in Kremlin comparisons to the 1945 Yalta Conference.
     
   • Testing Ukrainian and Western Resolve: Russia’s maximalist demands (e.g., Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, plus neutrality) in negotiations may be a tactic to test Ukraine’s willingness to compromise and gauge Western commitment, especially given uncertainties about U.S. support under Trump. By engaging in talks, Russia can probe for concessions without halting its military operations.
     
3. Securing Gains and Freezing the Conflict:
   • Locking in Territorial Gains: Russia currently controls about 19–20% of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of the four annexed oblasts. Negotiations could allow Russia to secure international recognition of these gains, particularly Crimea, which is a key strategic and symbolic priority. For example, Putin’s offer at the Alaska summit involved Ukraine ceding Donetsk and Luhansk in exchange for Russia relinquishing smaller areas in Sumy and Kharkiv, suggesting a desire to formalize control over core territories.
     
   • Ceasefire as a Strategic Pause: A ceasefire, even if temporary, could allow Russia to consolidate its defenses, replenish forces, and prepare for future offensives. Russia’s memorandum in June 2025 proposed a 30-day ceasefire tied to Ukrainian withdrawal from contested regions, indicating a willingness to pause hostilities to lock in gains while maintaining pressure on Ukraine.
     
4. Domestic and International Optics:
   • Domestic Legitimacy: Putin faces domestic pressure to present the war as a success. Negotiations that result in recognition of territorial gains, even if partial, could be framed as a victory to Russian audiences, mitigating the political risks of prolonged conflict and high casualties.
     
   • International Support: Russia’s engagement in talks aligns with pressure from allies like China and Brazil, who proposed a peace plan in May 2025 calling for de-escalation and a ceasefire. By participating, Russia maintains support from non-Western partners, countering Western isolation efforts.
     

Why Russia Might Prefer to Continue FightingDespite these incentives, Russia’s actions suggest it is not fully committed to negotiations unless they meet its maximalist goals. Several factors support your observation that Russia is focusing on defense and may not be eager to negotiate:

• Battlefield Momentum: Russia’s slow but steady advances in Donetsk (e.g., around Pokrovsk) and the capture of strategic locations like Vuhledar in October 2024 indicate it believes it can achieve more territorial gains through military means. Posts on X from May and August 2025 highlight Russia’s perception of a “highly successful offensive” in Donetsk, suggesting confidence in its military position.
  
• Uncompromising Demands: Russia’s insistence on Ukraine’s full withdrawal from the four annexed regions, neutrality, and demilitarization, as reiterated in August 2025, is seen as a non-starter by Ukraine and its allies. These demands align with Putin’s long-term goal of restoring Russia’s regional influence, suggesting negotiations are more about dictating terms than compromising.
  
• Skepticism of Western Guarantees: Russia’s distrust of Western commitments, coupled with Ukraine’s rejection of territorial concessions, reduces the appeal of negotiations unless they guarantee Russia’s core objectives.
  

ConclusionRussia’s engagement in negotiations over the last 4-5 months, despite not achieving its full territorial goals, is driven by a combination of military strain, economic pressures, diplomatic opportunities, and the desire to secure existing gains. The Kremlin is balancing defensive consolidation—fortifying occupied territories and countering Ukrainian advances like in Kursk—with limited offensives to expand control, particularly in Donetsk. Negotiations offer a chance to lock in territorial gains, gain sanctions relief, and project power diplomatically, but Russia’s maximalist demands and ongoing military advances suggest it is also prepared to continue fighting if talks fail to meet its terms. The lack of significant counteroffensives may reflect a strategic choice to prioritize holding and incrementally expanding territory over risky large-scale operations, especially given high casualties and Ukrainian resistance.

[UltraBudgie]

Of course they can't recover lost territory.

But you conveniently forget that in exchange for Ukraine giving up it's nukes, the US agreed to protect its sovereign integrity.

well no

The Budapest Memorandum was not a mutual defense pact. It did not legally obligate the US or other signatories to militarily defend Ukraine in case of invasion.

When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and launched a full-scale invasion in 2022, the memorandum's limitations became apparent, as no direct military intervention occurred to protect Ukraine's territorial integrity.

Key Provisions

The memorandum provided diplomatic assurances, not a formal defense treaty
Signatories pledged to:
Respect Ukraine's independence and sovereignty
Refrain from threatening or using force against Ukraine
Seek UN Security Council action if Ukraine faces aggression

[Oldcarpy2]

Silly rabbit, Russia is already at 70% of its stated territorial goals, tell me how close is Ukraine to taking back those territories?
 

I just told you.

They're not.

I'd lay off of Grok, if I were you.