Trump Announces Alaska Summit with Putin

[putnam6]

Oh please, Russia has been severely degraded and exposed, but the rumors of its death are greatly exaggerated

But I'll play along 

So, at the war's current pace, when can we expect Russia to collapse?

Because neither the US nor NATO is going to send troops, nor should they, it's that simple.

LOL I know this is a fantasy and prediction site, but damn.

Let's remember, Saddam took the full brunt of the US for a while. Russia is entrenched in Ukraine

Strains on Russia’s Military:

• Casualties and Manpower: Estimates suggest Russia has suffered massive losses in Ukraine, with some sources claiming over 1 million casualties (killed or wounded) since February 2022. This has forced reliance on poorly trained conscripts and volunteers, with troop quality reportedly declining compared to 2022. Desertions are significant, with over 50,000 reported, alongside morale issues and mutinies, like the surrender of a platoon in Chasiv Yar.
  
• Equipment Shortages: Russia has lost substantial equipment, including thousands of tanks and armored vehicles. It’s dipping into Soviet-era stockpiles, with over 4,000 tanks redeployed since 2022, often older models requiring minimal repairs. Production of modern equipment is hampered by sanctions, corruption, and logistical issues.
  
• Logistical and Strategic Failures: Chronic issues like corruption, poor logistics, and tactical errors have weakened Russia’s effectiveness. Soldiers report inadequate supplies, with some going months without proper food or water. Ukrainian drone strikes on key infrastructure, like airfields and oil refineries, further disrupt operations.
  
• Economic Pressure: Russia’s economy is showing signs of exhaustion after 40 months of war, with a military-driven boom fading. High defense spending (6% of GDP) strains resources, and reliance on allies like China, Iran, and North Korea for components and munitions highlights domestic production limits.
  

Resilience and Adaptation:

• Manpower Regeneration: Russia is recruiting heavily, achieving about 85% of its recruitment targets, adding roughly 10,000 troops monthly. The military has grown from 360,000 to 470,000 troops in Ukraine since 2023, showing an ability to replenish forces despite losses.
  
• Industrial Base: Russia’s military-industrial complex, with 1,400 enterprises and 4.5 million workers, has defied early predictions of collapse. It’s producing artillery and refurbishing older equipment at scale, though quality remains a concern.
  
• Strategic Shifts: Russia has adapted by focusing on attritional warfare, aiming to exhaust Ukraine rather than achieve major operational victories. Recent advances, like a deep push in Ukraine, suggest some tactical success, though at high cost.
  

Projections:

• Ukraine’s intelligence chief estimates Russia’s military could hit a breaking point by 2026, citing tank shortages, stalled production, and economic strain. However, others argue Russia can sustain its war effort for another year or two, supported by allies and a large reserve of Cold War-era hardware.
  
• A full collapse would likely require a combination of intensified Ukrainian offensives, sustained Western support for Ukraine, and internal Russian instability (e.g., economic collapse or political upheaval). While morale and logistics are crumbling in some units, Russia’s centralized command and manpower pool prevent immediate disintegration.
  

Counterpoints:

• Some sources argue Russia’s military is not on the verge of collapse, pointing to its ability to outnumber Ukraine’s forces (4:1 in some areas) and maintain pressure on the front lines. Posts on X also suggest confidence in Russia’s strategic position, dismissing Western calls for a ceasefire as signs of weakness.
  
• The narrative of collapse may be overstated by pro-Ukrainian sources, while Russia’s ability to adapt, even with outdated equipment, keeps it in the fight.
  

Conclusion:
A stalemate is the most likely scenario for 2025, characterized by slow Russian advances, Ukrainian resistance, and high casualties on both sides. A Ukrainian collapse is less likely due to Western support and defensive resilience, though risks remain if aid falters or Russia achieves a major breakthrough. A Russian collapse is the least likely in the short term, given its resource pool, but could become plausible by 2026 if losses and economic strain escalate. The war’s trajectory hinges on external support, manpower sustainability, and battlefield outcomes in key regions like Donbas and Kursk.

Russia’s military is battered, with severe losses, declining troop quality, and logistical woes, but it’s not teetering on immediate collapse. It can likely sustain operations through 2025, barring major disruptions. A breaking point by 2026 is plausible if current trends—high casualties, economic strain, and equipment depletion—persist without relief. However, Russia’s reliance on sheer quantity, external support, and attritional tactics gives it some staying power. The situation remains fluid, and much depends on Ukraine’s counteroffensives and Western aid.

[andy06shake]

Oh please, Russia has been degraded and exposed, but the rumors of its death are greatly exaggerated but Ill play along 

So at the war's current pace, when can we expect Russia to collapse?

Because neither the US nor NATO is going to send troops, nor should they, it's that simple.

Russia does not need to die to fall apart at the seams through.

Entire generations have been decimated on both sides.

At some point invasion has to simply become untenable and unsustainable.

[UltraBudgie]

Russia does not need to die to fall apart at the seams through.

Entire generations have been decimated on both sides.

At some point invasion has to simply become untenable and unsustainable.

Russia has 14 million aged of 18-25. Ukraine has 3 million.

Estimates of Russian losses range between 164 thousand (BBC estimate) and 1068 thousand (Ukraine Armed Forces estimate).

Estimates of Ukrainian losses range between 45 thousand (Zelensky estimate) and 400 thousand (Donald Trump estimate).

If it's a war of attrition, Russia is in the better position. However, in all likelihood, none of these numbers have any relationship to reality.

[xuenchen]

[putnam6]

Russia does not need to die to fall apart at the seams through.

Entire generations have been decimated on both sides.

At some point invasion has to simply become untenable and unsustainable.

Bottom line, Putin isn't giving back all of the captured territory...period 

What are you prepared to do about it? minimum full financing and military aid for the next 18 months.

Where does Ukraine make a breakthrough and capture territory in Donetsk 

• • Short-Term (2025): Putin faces minimal pressure to concede territories, as Russia can sustain its war effort through manpower recruitment (~10,000/month) and Soviet-era stockpiles. Conceding Crimea or Donbas would undermine his legitimacy, and no domestic institution (Duma, elites) has the power to force this. External military setbacks or economic collapse would be needed, but these are not imminent.
  
• Long-Term (2026+): If Ukraine sustains pressure (e.g., via drones, counteroffensives) and Western aid continues, combined with worsening economic conditions, Putin might face growing elite or public discontent. However, he’s more likely to pursue a frozen conflict or partial deal (e.g., keeping Crimea) than return all territories, as this would be seen as a strategic defeat.
  
• Probability: The chance of Putin conceding all territories is very low (<10%) absent a catastrophic military or political crisis. A stalemate or negotiated ceasefire with Russia retaining some gains is far more likely, as both sides face resource constraints.
  

Conclusion: Putin currently faces insufficient pressure to concede Ukrainian territories due to his domestic control and Russia’s ability to sustain the war, despite strains. External factors like Ukraine’s resistance and sanctions create some pressure, but not enough to force a full withdrawal, especially given the symbolic importance of annexed regions. A prolonged stalemate remains the most likely outcome, with concessions only plausible under extreme military or economic duress, which isn’t yet on the horizon.

[putnam6]

Russia has 14 million aged of 18-25. Ukraine has 3 million.

Estimates of Russian losses range between 164 thousand (BBC estimate) and 1068 thousand (Ukraine Armed Forces estimate).

Estimates of Ukrainian losses range between 45 thousand (Zelensky estimate) and 400 thousand (Donald Trump estimate).

If it's a war of attrition, Russia is in the better position. However, in all likelihood, none of these numbers have any relationship to reality.

Most AI models suggest that Military Russia maintains a 4 to 1 ratio in equipment and 7 to 1 manpower; the equipment ratio is mostly NATO-supplied

[Oldcarpy2]

[Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IrQVfOD-ws]

Why don't you post about   Putin's street thug and then his KGB career?

The rest of the World (look it up) watched in horror when Trump blamed Zelensky for starting the War and tag teamed him with JD Vance in that shameful shit show.

As for Trumps career, there are his bankrupted businesses, including a Casino for goodness sakes, and presenting a reality TV program.

Just for balance.

[Oldcarpy2]

Most AI models suggest that Military Russia maintains a 4 to 1 ratio in equipment and 7 to 1 manpower; the equipment ratio is mostly NATO-supplied

Then how come, in the real World, they aren't making more progress?

[IDELB2006]

Oh please, Russia has been severely degraded and exposed, but the rumors of its death are greatly exaggerated

But I'll play along 

So, at the war's current pace, when can we expect Russia to collapse?

Because neither the US nor NATO is going to send troops, nor should they, it's that simple.

LOL I know this is a fantasy and prediction site, but damn.

Let's remember, Saddam took the full brunt of the US for a while. Russia is entrenched in Ukraine

From your quote:

Russia’s military is battered, with severe losses, declining troop quality, and logistical woes, but it’s not teetering on immediate collapse. It can likely sustain operations through 2025, barring major disruptions. A breaking point by 2026 is plausible if current trends—high casualties, economic strain, and equipment depletion—persist without relief. However, Russia’s reliance on sheer quantity, external support, and attritional tactics gives it some staying power. The situation remains fluid, and much depends on Ukraine’s counteroffensives and Western aid.

Bold mine.

That seems like a good reason for Ukraine to continue.

[putnam6]

From your quote:

Underline mine.

That seems like a good reason for Ukraine to continue.

Yeah Montgomery, tell me about all those successful Ukrainian counteroffensives

FFS Ukraine would need 5 times the offensive counterattack results they territorial reclaimation they have accomplished so far... 5 times!!! 3 years minimum, and lets remember most of the territory regained was likely a feint by Russia, they invaded everywhere towards Kyiv knowing they could always fall back to the territories occupied now. 

REALITY not fantasy, Ukraine doesn't have the man power nor the actual battle plans to take back the territory and Im tired pretending we can spend to a military victory for Ukraine.

If we could, I gladly would do so. 

It's not feasible, LOL nobody has a plan either...

But yeah, let's send billions more 

Russia’s reliance on sheer quantity, external support, and attritional tactics gives it some staying power. The situation remains fluid, and much depends on Ukraine’s counteroffensives and Western aid.
 
Territory Under Russian Control

• Total Area: Russia occupies roughly 120,000 km² of Ukraine’s territory, out of Ukraine’s total area of approximately 603,548 km². This includes:
  • Crimea: ~27,000 km², annexed by Russia in 2014 and fully under Russian control since.
    
  • Donetsk Oblast: Russia controls 66% (17,000 km² of 26,517 km²), including Donetsk city, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. Ukraine holds 34% (9,000 km²), including key cities like Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and parts of Pokrovsk.
    
  • Luhansk Oblast: Russia controls 99% (26,300 km² of 26,684 km²), with Ukraine retaining a small sliver (~1%, ~300 km²).
    
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russia controls 73% (19,800 km² of 27,180 km²), including Melitopol and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, but Ukraine holds the regional capital, Zaporizhzhia city.
    
  • Kherson Oblast: Russia controls 73% (20,800 km² of 28,461 km²) east of the Dnipro River, including parts of the regional capital’s outskirts, but Ukraine controls Kherson city and the western bank.
    
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Russia holds a small percentage (~5%, ~1,500 km² of 31,415 km²), with no major settlements under control, as Ukraine recaptured most of the region in 2022.
    
• Total Territory to Recapture: Ukraine would need to liberate approximately 120,000 km², including Crimea (27,000 km²) and parts of the four oblasts (93,000 km²). This equates to roughly 20% of Ukraine’s total territory.