Disclosure has begun

[Astyanax]

Are those numbers right?

New science, peer-reviewed but far from firmly established.

[Astyanax]

"A direct counter to Carl Sagan’s aphorism is the assertion that all claims require only sufficient evidence, regardless of how unusual they may seem.  

Ask the AI which wrote that for an example of sufficient evidence for an extraordinary claim that isn’t itself extraordinary. No rush.

[Astyanax]

Personally I think the extraordinary claim is that we and the rest of the lineages of life are the sole sum of it all, intelligent or otherwise housed on our floating ball of chlorophyll, rocks, and water.

Extraordinary indeed, no doubt about it. Yet the probability of it happening is 1: absolute certainty.
 

Seems dubious to think that in all the Cosmos, we are it.

I don’t think anyone here disagrees with that!
 

Then I suppose we ought to ask what’s so special about “the now” that TPTB would acquiesce to the inquiry to end them all.

What’s so special? The consumer internet, and how it amplifies fringe voices and any phenomenon that can be farmed for consumer attention. This has placed a variety of enormous pressures on democratic governments, which are buckling under the strain. The widespread acceptance of conspiracy theories by uneducated people is one result.

[ArMaP]

Can you explain how, in your opinion, an extraordinary claim could be substantiated by ordinary evidence? If evidence for something is commonly available, how could it be extraordinary?

A new way of looking at commonly available evidence may be enough to support an "extraordinary claim".
For example, was the claim that an apple attracts the Earth in the same way the Earth attracts the apple extraordinary? The evidence supporting that claim was available for anyone to see, the only thing that was lacking was someone to look at it in an inquisitive way and really think about it.

People who believe in things for which there is no solid evidence are rarely fond of the late Dr Sagan. Clearly you are one such person, or your loyal and sterling work in support of ATS and DI would not exist.

You're wrong, I'm not like that. In fact, I had some problems on ATS and on the late Zorgon's forum, Pegasus Research Consortium, because of my scepticism regarding those kinds of topics. Some people on PRC wanted me to be banned because I was always contradicting them.

Just because I support sites that allow people to talk about unproved topics as if they were proven facts doesn't mean I share the ideas, only the will to discuss them.

If you look at my posts here (but mostly on ATS) you can see that I always start from a sceptical position but accept whatever is presented, giving it a mental classification of more or less likely to be true.

I regard you as one of the more intelligent and sensible people here, as you were on ATS. But neither this site nor that one was particularly notable for steel-trap minds, so it’s a nuanced compliment at best.

Thanks, I suppose.

Reconsider – if, that is, you are emotionally equipped to do so – the point you are making in the context of the supposed function of this board, and of ATS. Both sites were predicated on the acknowledgement that mysteries exist to be solved. Isn’t that why some of you regard the ‘intellectual property’ generated by these sites as worth preserving? Somewhere in it may lie to solutions to several famous mysteries. Or so you believe.

What point do you think I am making? I only stated my opinions.
And yes, I am emotionally equipped to reconsider any of my opinions, as I have been all my life, I don't have a problem with that.
That's why my signature on ATS was "I like to deny ignorance, correct me if I'm wrong".

But neither you, not anyone else, is going to get to the bottom of any mystery by gazing in wonder at the skies, or at their smartphones, and going ‘golly gee’ at every fantastical revelation. Neither will anyone do so by sharing yet another claim or theory backed by no tangible evidence and arguing for pages and pages with people who have no evidence for their claims either. To solve mysteries you need solid evidence, and the stranger the mystery the harder the evidence needed to solve it. You’re not going to get it by mollycoddling member testimony. You’re going to get it, if at all, by subjecting that testimony to serious, hostile scrutiny. If it passes, then you have something worthwhile.

That's why I don't do that.
Yes, I accept what people say as it is, something said by someone, that may be convinced they are right about it or that may be think what they are saying is wrong but they have some motive to say it that way.
But I don't accept that as the truth, and that's why I either ask questions or look for evidence that supports or disproves the information given.
One thing I disagree with you is in the hostile part, not only is hostility not needed, it's usually easier to make other people see they are either wrong or in need of finding supporting evidence if you talk to them from an understanding (meaning that you understand they may have that opinion, even if you do not agree) point of view.

Absent a genuine effort to find, lay out, analyse and above all disprove that evidence, all these sites provide is a place for believers in various unconventional propositions – for instance, that aliens are visiting Earth and probing human lower gastrointestinal tracts – to make public what they believe, claiming whatever nonsense they care to in connexion with or in support of that, and then argue testily with others who disbelieve with them or make extraordinary claims of their own. What is the final outcome? A big fat zero. ATS and Deny Ignorance have existed for over twenty years in total. Have they solved, or even narrowed down the investigative scope, of one single, tiny mystery? Of course not. That is not their real function, which is to provide a place where credulous folk entertain themselves and one another.

Their real function is to allow discussion of topics, the fact that the large majority of members on forums like this are the ones supporting the unproven ideas doesn't mean they are exclusively populated by "believers". In fact, many of the "beliefs" contradict each other, so a "believer" is also a "sceptic", even if they do not see it themselves.

And here you are saying you don’t like extraordinary evidence. Well, of course you don’t. It spoils your fun.

I never said that.

You know that ordinary evidence isn’t good enough to explain stuff that sounds like a Twilight Zone or X-Files script. When something is claimed to defy Newtonian mechanics, as the so-called ‘tic-tacs’ do, what ‘ordinary evidence’ could possibly explain that?

Obviously, I don't know, if I did I would present it.
But as I said above, I don't think extraordinary evidence is an absolute need, a review of already known evidence may be enough.
But that's not something I have to do, it's something those promoting those ideas have to find to support them.

The fact is, most here would rather keep the mystery alive and not solve it, because life is more fun that way, and it makes them feel special and ‘in the know’. Face it, ArMap, no-one here is interested in reality. This is a playground for fantasists, nothing more.

It's a playground for those that do not show supporting evidence, which is not the same thing as being fantasists.
And it's that because sceptics allow it. Personally, I haven't as much time as I had some years ago, so it's hard for me to look for evidence that opposes some of the claims. Also, it looks like most claims these days are just made through someone else's videos, and I hate videos, as they are made to use our time the way the video maker wanted to, not how we want.

[quintessentone]

Ask the AI which wrote that for an example of sufficient evidence for an extraordinary claim that isn’t itself extraordinary. No rush.

How about with the release of UAP video/documents/pictures by what most people consider to be authority, which is virtually unexplained and still considered to be mysteries, that the masses are indeed accepting it as sufficient evidence to feed their beliefs that extraterrestrials actually do exist? 

I would hazard a guess that existing believers' minds were opened further, whereas non-believers or debunkers appear to be becoming believers, whereas skeptics are not debunkers, so will always remain skeptical.

Here is the AI writing which you actually need to read to understand where I'm going with this...

"Key trends include:

• Rising Belief in Visitations: In a 2025 YouGov poll, 47% of Americans stated they believe aliens have definitely or probably visited Earth, up from 36% in 2012, while the number of people unsure dropped from 48% to 16%. 
  
• General Existence: A 2021 Gallup poll found 41% of Americans believed some UFOs were extraterrestrial spacecraft, up from 33% in 2019, with belief in the general existence of life elsewhere in the universe estimated at roughly two-thirds by Pew Research. 
  
• Drivers of Change: Experts attribute this shift to a "one-two punch" of reputable government figures discussing UAPs in media and documentaries, combined with the normalization of alien themes in popular culture and social media communities" (LLM)
  
  ----
  

So my point is, depending on your position, experiences, and/or beliefs the released UAP data is either extraordinary evidence or more unexplained mysteries for which beliefs can go either way.

For me, I have never seen any of those types of UAPs before so I immediately try to debunk them as military advanced warmongering equipment - because the 'destructive human condition', radar/photographic anomalies, bugs/birds, and/or spy equipment from adversaries...while all along keeping an open mind that 'we can't be the only lifeform in the entire cosmos'.

To me that recent UAP dump is simply more unexplained aerial phenomenon, but what should alarm all of us is that the top military brass and scientists can't explain what they are.

[ARM1968]

There is no real evidence that any of these ‘releases’ are opening the minds of the masses or making them believe in aliens.  Quite the contrary, most seem utterly unmoved, disinterested even. 

we lap it up, of course, but we aren’t the target audience.

[SteamyAmerican]

Extraordinary indeed, no doubt about it. Yet the probability of it happening is 1: absolute certainty.
 

I don’t think anyone here disagrees with that!
 

What’s so special? The consumer internet, and how it amplifies fringe voices and any phenomenon that can be farmed for consumer attention. This has placed a variety of enormous pressures on democratic governments, which are buckling under the strain. The widespread acceptance of conspiracy theories by uneducated people is one result.

What?

Strike that, reverse it.

Just because we are the only planet to house life that we are aware of, doesn’t mean that this is the factual case at all actually.

As I stated, we lack the tech or means to verify this. 

That is all.

[quintessentone]

"Recent Pentagon declassifications of UAP footage, released as part of the Trump administration's PURSUE initiative in May 2026, have intensified public interest and fueled beliefs that extraterrestrial life exists. While specific polling data tied exclusively to the May 2026 release is not detailed in the provided context, broader polling indicates a significant shift in public opinion over the last decade. 
Key Polling Trends and Reactions:

• Rising Belief: A November 2025 YouGov poll found that 47 percent of Americans believe aliens have definitely or probably visited Earth, a notable increase from 36 percent in 2012. 
  
• Declining Uncertainty: The percentage of Americans unsure about alien visitation dropped sharply from 48 percent in 2012 to just 16 percent in 2025, indicating the public is taking a firmer stance on the issue. 
  
• Bipartisan Interest: Belief in alien visitation spans political lines, with 51 percent of Democrats, 49 percent of Independents, and 42 percent of Republicans holding this view. 
  
• Public Reaction to 2026 Release: Following the May 2026 declassification of UAP videos from locations including Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Greece, public respondents expressed support for transparency, with many stating the footage added weight to long-held suspicions that "we’re not alone."" (LLM)
  
  ---
  
  The polls are showing what is happening with these UAP releases.
  

[SteamyAmerican]

"Recent Pentagon declassifications of UAP footage, released as part of the Trump administration's PURSUE initiative in May 2026, have intensified public interest and fueled beliefs that extraterrestrial life exists. While specific polling data tied exclusively to the May 2026 release is not detailed in the provided context, broader polling indicates a significant shift in public opinion over the last decade. 
Key Polling Trends and Reactions:

• Rising Belief: A November 2025 YouGov poll found that 47 percent of Americans believe aliens have definitely or probably visited Earth, a notable increase from 36 percent in 2012. 
  
• Declining Uncertainty: The percentage of Americans unsure about alien visitation dropped sharply from 48 percent in 2012 to just 16 percent in 2025, indicating the public is taking a firmer stance on the issue. 
  
• Bipartisan Interest: Belief in alien visitation spans political lines, with 51 percent of Democrats, 49 percent of Independents, and 42 percent of Republicans holding this view. 
  
• Public Reaction to 2026 Release: Following the May 2026 declassification of UAP videos from locations including Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Greece, public respondents expressed support for transparency, with many stating the footage added weight to long-held suspicions that "we’re not alone."" (LLM)
  
  ---
  
  The polls are showing what is happening with these UAP releases.
  

Like religion, I don’t think Disclosure is going to sway any one person’s view short of WH lawn landings.

What I mean is you could prove/disprove God, and people aren’t necessarily going to decamp to a new way of thinking just because you show them glossy photos and graphs is all.

To me personally, I find it interesting that there is a push just now. After centuries of saying it ain’t so. Forever authority has been trying to keep a lid on this.

So “Que Paso?” Like why is that? 

What’s changed? Or rather what is it we aren’t supposed to be thinking about in the now?

Ahem.

[quintessentone]

Like religion, I don’t think Disclosure is going to sway any one person’s view short of WH lawn landings.

What I mean is you could prove/disprove God, and people aren’t necessarily going to decamp to a new way of thinking just because you show them glossy photos and graphs is all.

To me personally, I find it interesting that there is a push just now. After centuries of saying it ain’t so. Forever authority has been trying to keep a lid on this.

So “Que Paso?” Like why is that? 

What’s changed? Or rather what is it we aren’t supposed to be thinking about in the now?

Ahem.

Well, wasn't it because credible people have been coming forward with their experiences for a long time now but recently a larger number are coming forward whom are very credible as well?

People like Bob Lazar were easy to threaten, control and smear, until he wasn't, until he went on the news and had UFO/UAP researchers and news media back him up. Military personnel were also easy to threaten, intimidate and/or silence.

Let's not forget those researchers who work tirelessly to find the truth.

"George Knapp attempted to verify Bob Lazar's story through several investigative methods:

1. Corroborating Employment and Education: After initial difficulties confirming Lazar's claims with institutions like Los Alamos National Laboratory and Caltech, Knapp reportedly found evidence placing Lazar at Los Alamos. This included Lazar's name in a 1982 lab phone directory and a feature in a Los Alamos newspaper that identified him as a "physicist" at the lab, showcasing his homemade jet car. 
   
2. Polygraph Testing: Knapp arranged for Lazar to undergo multiple polygraph tests with different examiners. The results were mixed and ultimately inconclusive, with some tests suggesting truthfulness and others not. The process was marked by alleged government intimidation, including a phone call to one examiner's employer and a reported burglary at the examiner's home. 
   
3. Assessing Technical Knowledge: Knapp noted that Lazar possessed specific, accurate knowledge about the remote S-4 facility near Area 51, including its location and security procedures, which was not publicly known at the time. Lazar's early description of the properties of Element 115, later synthesized as Moscovium, is also cited by Knapp as a significant point of corroboration. 
   
4. Observing Anomalous Activity: Knapp reported observing security personnel visiting Lazar's home and believed he himself was under government surveillance after reporting on the story, which he interpreted as indirect evidence of Lazar's connection to a sensitive government program." (LLM)