Catastrophic flooding is occurring in Central Texas this morning.

[Byrd]

still think reality is playing games with tragedy here

on independence day, hill country is inundated with flooding. at the boy's camp, "la junta", everyone is thankfully safe, but at "mystic", many girls are missing, so the hunt is on in hunt...

dunno, maybe i'm just sensitive to coincidental naming that acts as schitzo-fuel, and i'm certainly not asserting that there's any kind of secret-cabal conspiracy, but it just seems fishy, like reality itself is trying to play games

La Junta is DOWNstream from Camp Mystic and in town (about where the dot for Kerville is on this map: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c...png)...and their director drowned in the flooding.  They would have had some warning.

The floodwaters reached Camp Mystic first (it's on the southern branch of the headwaters of the Guadalupe river.  They would have had little to no warning. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Camp+M...3791,657m/)  The camp is not near town and the whole area is flat and beside a loop (meander) in the river and the whole site is flat and not very high above the river.

The county itself does not have a warning system or even weather alert sirens (per article I just read.)

[putnam6]

La Junta is DOWNstream from Camp Mystic and in town (about where the dot for Kerville is on this map: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c...png)...and their director drowned in the flooding.  They would have had some warning.

The floodwaters reached Camp Mystic first (it's on the southern branch of the headwaters of the Guadalupe river.  They would have had little to no warning. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Camp+M...3791,657m/)  The camp is not near town and the whole area is flat and beside a loop (meander) in the river and the whole site is flat and not very high above the river.

The county itself does not have a warning system or even weather alert sirens (per article I just read.)

Just asking, not arguing..courtesy of the wayback machine...

So this below is wrong... 6:40 UTC 7/4/25 translates to 1:40 Central in Texas NWS had watches and warnings the last pic below shows they had warnings and watches mid-day July 3rd










https://x.com/i/grok/share/w9tyW7fOyi4xai91iSn3Nm5KQ
 

did kerr get an early warning of flooding potential
 
 
 
 
 
 
Yes, Kerr County received early warnings of flooding potential prior to the catastrophic flooding on July 4, 2025. The National Weather Service (NWS) issued a flood watch for parts of south-central Texas, including Kerr County, on Thursday, July 3, 2025, at 1:18 p.m. CT, highlighting a high risk of flash flooding through the overnight hours. This was followed by a flash flood warning for Kerr County at 1:14 a.m. CT on Friday, July 4, which specifically noted "life-threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses" in areas including Kerrville, Ingram, and Hunt. A more urgent flash flood emergency was issued at 4:03 a.m. CT for Kerr County, followed by another for Kerrville at 5:34 a.m. CT, stating that "a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River" and urging residents to seek higher ground immediately. Additionally, the NWS Weather Prediction Center issued a mesoscale discussion early on July 4, forecasting heavy rainfall with hourly rates of 2–3 inches and localized 6-hour totals over 6 inches, indicating "significant impacts" from potential flash flooding.

 
Despite these warnings, some local officials, including Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly and Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice, claimed the flooding’s severity was unexpected, stating that no warning system was in place and that the NWS forecasts "did not predict the amount of rain" seen (up to 10–15 inches in some areas). However, the NWS warnings were timely and escalated appropriately as the situation worsened, with specific alerts issued hours before the Guadalupe River surged. Social media posts and media reports also indicate that AccuWeather, a private forecasting service, sent warnings hours before the floods, suggesting that some predictive information was available. The disconnect appears to stem from local authorities’ underestimation of the event’s magnitude and delays in public notification, as the first local government alerts on social media (e.g., Kerrville Police Department) were posted around 5:16 a.m. on July 4, hours after the NWS warnings.
In summary, Kerr County did receive early warnings from the NWS starting Thursday afternoon, with escalating alerts overnight as conditions deteriorated. However, local preparedness and communication may not have fully leveraged these warnings, contributing to the perception that the flood "came out of nowhere."

[Byrd]

There's a storm hitting san antonio Waco and Austin right now but I cant tell where its going. Usually it moves east pretty fast but this one looks like its standing still

These cities are east (some by as much as 150 miles) of Kerrville.  They're on the Guadalupe, however (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadalupe_...ershed.png)

[ReturnofBroccoli]

According to the reports the young children's cabins were by the riverbank and the senior cabins were elevated in a different area so the majority of the lost are young and probably do not know how to swim and they also say they the camp was destroyed like wiped completely out

[ReturnofBroccoli]

These cities are east (some by as much as 150 miles) of Kerrville.  They're on the Guadalupe, however (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadalupe_...ershed.png)

I live approximately 150 miles from Kerrville. Also, when it flooded last week, im telling you it was really strange because the rain didn't last very long but the ground wasnt absorbing it. Flooded everywhere and where i live is very desert like. We barely have any rain at all and when we do the ground soaks it up so fast but not this time. It made me wonder.

[putnam6]

AccuWeather sent warnings ahead of Texas flooding that killed at least 27“These warnings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety,” the company said.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/weather/...-least-27/

 


 

The Guadalupe River flooding in the middle of the night on the Fourth of July holiday caught many residents, campers and officials by surprise. The Texas Hill Country, which sits northwest of San Antonio, is a popular destination for camping and swimming, especially around the summertime holiday.
AccuWeather said the private forecasting company and the National Weather Service sent warnings about potential flash flooding hours before the devastation.
“These warnings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety,” AccuWeather said in a statement that called the Texas Hill County one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the U.S. because of its terrain and many water crossings.

[BeyondKnowledge]

Local officials saying we did not get a warning. Translation, we could not be bothered to listen for warnings. 

OSHA requires a weather radio at all businesses. Why no night fire guard at these summer camps with cell phones? They would have gotten the warnings. 

People running things that have no idea how quickly things can go bad. 

Fox News still saying 23 girls missing from that one camp and unknown others that were camping in that region. Very sad all the way around but compounded by lack of weather awareness. 

Warnings issued but not heard or heeded.

[CriticalStinker]

I used to live in Central Texas.

Shame they don't have some sort of protocol to utilize the tornado siren infrastructure.

While you wouldn't want it to actually be the normal siren, as people might wake up and take cover in the lowest part of where they're at. Changing the sound, and having the public know that the different sound means to be alert of something could be useful.

Seems like an easy cost effective way to help in scenarios like this. They test the sirens once a month for tornados, they could test twice a month, one with the tornado sound, and the other for general emergencies and educate everyone that the different sound means to turn your radio on.

What a lot of people don't realize is how fast flash flooding can happen. The ground in Texas can get dry and hard as Broccoli noted, a hard and fast rain will just runoff with that. I live in a valley now, and sometimes we get flooding even when the rain isn't bad because of the watershed. The only thing that will save you in situations like that is knowing it's happening. Middle of the night changes that.

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

Local officials saying we did not get a warning. Translation, we could not be bothered to listen for warnings. 

OSHA requires a weather radio at all businesses. Why no night fire guard at these summer camps with cell phones? They would have gotten the warnings. 

People running things that have no idea how quickly things can go bad. 

Fox News still saying 23 girls missing from that one camp and unknown others that were camping in that region. Very sad all the way around but compounded by lack of weather awareness. 

Warnings issued but not heard or heeded.

It's not California, you don't blame states like Texas for "those types" of failures during natural disasters, especially with such a high death toll and so many girls still missing. It's tragic and force majeure.

You are only allowed to jump to conclusions of systematic failure in CA, HI, OR, WA, CO, MN, IL, NY, NJ, MD, DE, CN, RI, MA, VT, NH, and ME.

I feel an obligatory statement of empathy is now needed to offset that my immediate response to that post was to politicize tragedy.

I honestly wonder how much vocal public response to these things are forced, and how much is an inroad to get in political jab like I just did.

So I'm not going to actually blame anything for a flash flood in the middle of night, even if the Captain Hindight in me says there should have been a better warning system or preparedness.

[Sky727]

At least 51 people killed in Texas flooding as authorities face scrutiny over response

At least 51 people have died after heavy rain caused flash flooding, with water bursting from the banks of the Guadalupe River in Texas.
The overflowing water began sweeping into Kerr County and other areas around 4am local time on Friday, killing at least 43 people in the county.
 This includes at least 15 children and 28 adults, with five children and 12 adults pending identification, Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said at a news conference.

https://news.sky.com/story/at-least-51-p...e-13393010