C-130 crash in Georgia ??

[phansett]

This is a pretty crazy breakup of a C-130. I trust this forum’s thoughts more than X speculation…

C-130 crash in war Georgia - Azerbaijan birder

[Zaphod58]

Turkey flies some of the oldest C-130s out there. They operate 20 second hand C-130B/E airframes. This one was a C-130E, 68-01609, was built for the Royal Saudi Air Force before being sold to Turkey in 2010. In 2021 it had special markings applied for 222 Filo. It's believed to have had commandos on board that had just participated in a parade in Baku. They climbed out and turned back as directed, climbing up to 24,000 feet. They briefly climbed up to 25,000 feet just as the transponder signal was lost as the aircraft broke apart.

[Signal Witch]

The airframe looks to be one of the classic E-model Hercules, ex-Saudi birds that Turkey refitted with the ERCIYES avionics package. Solid upgrade suite, but those airframes are running right up against their fatigue limits. Turkey is already shifting to C-130Js for exactly that reason.
 
From the video evidence, it looks like what we have seen before, such as Tanker 123 in 2002 or the KC-130T breakup in 2017. There is no sign of a detonation or external streak, just a progressive structural failure starting near the wing root followed by a quick roll and fireball on impact.
 
A few folks are tossing out the usual guesses: Russian S-400 launch, internal cargo explosion, or similar. But there is no flash and no external strike trail. It looks like an old frame finally losing the fatigue battle. Maintenance might play into it, though there have been no prior red flags in Turkish operations.
 
Sometimes metal just runs out of life. This one seems like that story.

[Zaphod58]

or the KC-130T breakup in 2017. 

YNKY72 was initiated by at least one blade from #2 coming off the prop and going through the fuselage, leading to the fuselage forward of the wing separating. It looks like one of the props is missing from the wing, but the big question will be whether that was the initiating event, or if it came off post break up.

[Zaphod58]

The aircraft was carrying maintenance technicians and spare parts for the Turkish F-16s that were in Azerbaijan for the military parade. The data recorder was recovered. Eighteen of twenty on board have been recovered, they're still searching for two. 

[Blackfingers]

Weight plus turbulence plus old fatigued airframe = :(

[Zaphod58]

Weight plus turbulence plus old fatigued airframe = :(

Prop separation. One is missing on the way down.

[Blackfingers]

Cheers Zaph.Yeah I heard a rumour of that as well.Wasnt there a batch of blades found to be incorrectly serviced a couple of years ago?

[Zaphod58]

Cheers Zaph.Yeah I heard a rumour of that as well.Wasnt there a batch of blades found to be incorrectly serviced a couple of years ago?

YNKY72 over Mississippi found it. They scored it during maintenance, like they’d done for years, and it caused corrosion that let the prop come apart and throw the #4 blade, starting the accident sequence. After going through other props they found a bunch showing corrosion from it, so they switched all the H/T models to the NP2000 eight bladed prop.

[Zaphod58]

The aircraft underwent maintenance from Sept 11-October 12 of this year. The ERCIYES upgrade was completed in 2022. It entered Turkish service in 2014.