Trump says he bombed Iran

[EXETER]

I find it difficult to believe we don't have some kind of inside intel to bomb these nuclear sites with such surety.


[Video: https://youtu.be/LvD9KCNYjv8?si=ShiTPUE1GQ9XfuJz]

Israel is famous for having excellent human intelligence (HUMINT) in all of the mideastern countries.  I think it's relatively easier for them than it would be for the US because almost every mideastern ethnicity is probably represented somewhere in the Israeli population and can be recruited to spy. That's why they know exactly which room in which apartment to bomb with exactly which size of bomb to kill exactly the nuclear scientist they want to at exactly the moment that scientist is standing by the sink brushing his teeth. So my guess is that the Israelis gave the US the inside HUMINT on what was going on in the underground facilities, from people who were inside. The US is superb at overhead imagery, signals collection, and decryption of phone, email, text, etc. Put it all together and the combination can be very convincing.  

I think that Trump probably had good reason to believe that Iran was making a sprint to produce some Uranium bombs.  If that's true, then it has been long-standing US policy that we would not allow that to happen, so the attacks on the 3 sites would have been justified on those grounds.  

However, while putting some bombs into the underground facilities will momentarily stop whatever was going on it there, it won't necessarily stop Iran from developing Uranium bombs unless the US and Israel recover the enriched Uranium that has already been produced.  In fact, you could argue that it's more urgent than ever to send ground troops in to recover whatever was in there, so that Iran can't quickly put together a bomb from the remains.  And that will require boots on the ground.  Maybe the agreement between Trump and Netanyahu was that we would put the centrifuges out of commission and Israel would send in the SOF troops to clean out what's left. In any case, that will require constant air power coverage over the area to prevent any Iranian forces from getting in or out.

The fight is just starting.

[Zaphod58]

Six GBU-57s on Fordow, 30 Tomahawks on Isfahan and Natanz.

 Also hearing 6 B-2s to Fordow, with 12 GBU-57s, and one to Natanz.

[CriticalStinker]

Israel is famous for having excellent human intelligence (HUMINT) in all of the mideastern countries.  I think it's relatively easier for them than it would be for the US because almost every mideastern ethnicity is probably represented somewhere in the Israeli population and can be recruited to spy. That's why they know exactly which room in which apartment to bomb with exactly which size of bomb to kill exactly the nuclear scientist they want to at exactly the moment that scientist is standing by the sink brushing his teeth. So my guess is that the Israelis gave the US the inside HUMINT on what was going on in the underground facilities, from people who were inside. The US is superb at overhead imagery, signals collection, and decryption of phone, email, text, etc. Put it all together and the combination can be very convincing.  

I think that Trump probably had good reason to believe that Iran was making a sprint to produce some Uranium bombs.  If that's true, then it has been long-standing US policy that we would not allow that to happen, so the attacks on the 3 sites would have been justified on those grounds.  

However, while putting some bombs into the underground facilities will momentarily stop whatever was going on it there, it won't necessarily stop Iran from developing Uranium bombs unless the US and Israel recover the enriched Uranium that has already been produced.  In fact, you could argue that it's more urgent than ever to send ground troops in to recover whatever was in there, so that Iran can't quickly put together a bomb from the remains.  And that will require boots on the ground.  Maybe the agreement between Trump and Netanyahu was that we would put the centrifuges out of commission and Israel would send in the SOF troops to clean out what's left. In any case, that will require constant air power coverage over the area to prevent any Iranian forces from getting in or out.

The fight is just starting.

I think for the most part you're right.

Israel has excellent intel, that often punches above their weight as a nation. That said, they've said that Iran was about to have a nuke for 30 years. I suppose that leans into the human part of the human intelligence, implying sometimes it's flawed due to human bias.

That said, for the latter part of your post, I agree there is an interesting part to the uranium itself. But I think so for different reasons.

Lately the narrative has been that only 4%~ enrichment is needed for civilian energy.

To me, that makes me wonder if you're greatly exceeding that, and your sites greatly enriching beyond those levels are being hit... How are we not seeing events comparable to Chernobyl happening? I suppose devils advocate is that they are so far under earth, that it's being contained by the depth. I still imagine there would be some measurable event after though.

But I suppose they could have moved it too, which is a concern of it's own. And I could see why many would use things that could happen from now as justification why all the events lately happened as they did. I just think that removes the agency from our decisions to come to this moment. None of us can say with confidence how close they really were, and it certainly wasn't a large concern for most Americans more than a few weeks before the media caught up with recent events.

All feels like 2002-2003 if you ask me. Weapons of mass destruction.

[rickymouse]

Six GBU-57s on Fordow, 30 Tomahawks on Isfahan and Natanz.

 Also hearing 6 B-2s to Fordow, with 12 GBU-57s, and one to Natanz.

Seems like you have some pretty accurate intel on what our military has going on.  I read lots of your threads and posts on ATS too.  I have zero people that I know personally around here that have that kind of connections and know where to look for it.  I did know someone who used to be guarding presidents in the secret service personally, but he is now retired but still lives in DC.  I don't think him and his wife will ever move back here anymore.  He does still do some kind of work relaying messages for some military agency yet, but not sure exactly what his job title is.  He was married to an older couple I was friends with daughter, they would come here for Holidays, but now both of my friends are dead now, so I never get to see them since her mothers funeral.  I couldn't get any info out of him at all, everything I asked him he seemed to say was classified.  But then again, why would I bother asking him things that were stuff you could look up on the internet or read in the news.....So I guess he was not wrong about me asking about things he could not say anything about. 

[pianopraze]

Trump’s address to the nation: Twitter video


i hate listening to politicians speaking Nonesense so I’m not going to watch it.

He lost what little support I had of him attacking Massie. Now he lost what respect I had for his first term keeping us out of war.

just sick at my stomach.

we need to stay out of this war and he just sunk us into it.

[Bush Master]

Bleep-Bleep
Incoming
Round Two

[imitator]

Trump’s address to the nation: Twitter video


i hate listening to politicians speaking Nonesense so I’m not going to watch it.

He lost what little support I had of him attacking Massie. Now he lost what respect I had for his first term keeping us out of war.

just sick at my stomach.

we need to stay out of this war and he just sunk us into it.

It's easy to blame politicians... however the US and Israel military has been gearing up for this well before Trump was ever president... probably since 2008 or whenever Fordo was being built.

Nothing can stop the war machine, not even the politicians... "they" have time tables to carry out, as if they have a crystal ball... or maybe a time machine. ;O

[Observer]

Was this a violation of international law, a violation of the UN charter article 2(4), a violation of the non-proliferation treaty and a violation of the US Constitution which does not give the president the right to start a war without congressional approval?

I just don’t understand why there are even laws to begin with. Who the fuck is going to enforce an international law anyway?

[pianopraze]

It's easy to blame politicians... however the US and Israel military has been gearing up for this well before Trump was ever president... probably since 2008 or whenever Fordo was being built.

Nothing can stop the war machine, not even the politicians... "they" have time tables to carry out, as if they have a crystal ball... or maybe a time machine. ;O

Probably accurate.

Trump got into office saying he would keep us out of war with libertarian and anti-war moderate democrats supporting him. Then he turns on the libertarians and democrats in recent days and sits on the Epstein list then reverses himself on war. 

Makes me wonder if he really is in those Epstein files as he is reversing himself so much. 

If not that then he has history of getting bad advisors and listening to them. 


Reading Twitter I disagree with both the left and right. The libertarians are holding his feet to the fire. And a lot of maga are surprisingly saying this is not what we voted for. Credit to them for standing up.

He is destroying his base but I guess he doesn’t have to worry about re-election.

[MonkMode]

Marking the thread