Trump Announces Alaska Summit with Putin

[xuenchen]

OH_OH 

White House is considering inviting Zelenskyy to Alaska


Sources familiar with Zelenskyy's thinking say Trump has appointed a Special Negotiator to tame Zelenskyy at The Alaska Accords!!! (Note: The Special Negotiator isn't Boogeyman! It's The Blond!)

[EXETER]

On the contrary, I think wars of attrition last a long time. Its definitely going to last until Putin is satisfied, unless someone intervenes it seems he's holding all the cards. For all i know, he will be satisfied with 20% in Alaska, but i doubt it, because he's winning so far. Ukraine will have to kill at twice the rate. Not impossible. Hmmmm. I do know that a company I am invested in makes defensive weapons for ukraine. I wonder if their stock raises and falls with losses during the war. Some might think Ukraine is winning but until that 20% becomes 0 i would say otherwise because it started with 0% Russian control. Technically to be winning it seems like ukraine would have to occupy a piece of Russia yeah?

No, and here's why.  

Putin's objective is/was to restore Ukraine's condition as basically a vassal state, so it acts like a buffer between Mother Russia's heartland and the Western democracies.  That's basically what it was before the Maidan Revolution of 2014 started kicking the Russian puppet politicians in Ukraine out of power. In 2022 Putin thought he could restore that condition on the cheap, by assassinating Zelensky and re-taking the Ukraine government. And that's what he attempted to do in the opening weeks and months of the February 2022 invasion. The Putin-designated politicians who were supposed to have taken over after Zelensky was gone had already rented apartments in Kyiv in anticipation of Russian troops rolling into Kyiv.  

But that never happened.  The armored column that came down toward Kyiv out of Belarus got stalled and decimated, and had to retreat by April of 2022. So that meant that Putin had to go to plan B.  Plan B was/is to turn Ukraine into another "frozen conflict" on Russia's border--like the nation of Georgia.  In 2008, Russian troops invaded parts of the sovereign nation of Georgia, and did basically the same thing they would do again in Ukraine 14 years later. The areas inside those frozen conflicts are basically zombie regions--neither living nor dead, but fundamentally unable to mount any organized threat to Russia. To this day, Russia illegally controls about 20% of the land area of Georgia. 

But the population of Ukraine is about 10 times bigger than the population of Georgia, and Ukraine is fighting back strongly, while Georgia is not.  So Putin has not been able to get into the phase of a frozen conflict where he just has to maintain a small occupation force in the occupied territories to make sure no organized resistance springs up.  He's still sending new troops and weapons into the conflict zone on a daily basis to defeat the Ukrainian defenders and burning through his "single use" soldiers at a rate of 1,000 per day, or so, in the process.  

But military forces defending their territory have a numerical advantage over military forces trying to invade and subdue a hostile population.  In WWII, the calculation was that the Allies would have to show up with an army of 2 soldiers for every 100 German citizens in order to invade and occupy Germany.  The War went on for as long as it did primarily because it took that long to produce the supplies for that big of an army.  

The population of Ukraine is about 38 Million. So that would take an army of about 760,000 thousand Russians to invade and occupy.  Today, they have about 600,000 in and around Ukraine, or about 80% of what they should have.  Ukraine has about 900,000 men under arms, and they all have only one goal--kick Russians out of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine has no desire or intention to occupy Russian territory other than for perhaps a temporary tactical reason.  If they tried to invade and hold Russian territory, they would face the same problem in reverse that Russia is experiencing trying to invade and hold Ukrainian territory--only worse.

And recent estimates are that Russia is losing about 2 soldiers for every Ukrainian loss, so their burn rate is higher. In order for Russia to be winning, they have to get to a situation where they are not burning through men and material faster than they can replace them, and they are definitely not there. But if Trump manages to force a cease-fire in place, then Russia would be there--they would occupy the 20% of Ukrainian territory necessary to create a frozen conflict, and Trump would enable the "freezing" part of that. Putin would win.  Some of us conspiracy-minded folk think that's exactly what Trump's agenda is.

[xuenchen]

I see a big difference between 5,033hrs and 24hrs. Trump got played and or played you and his MAGA base. And you still ate it up and still continue think he is god or something.
Grow up at some point and also please stop speaking in riddles. It's annoying and only something fools do.

Guess you told me eh 

[Vermilion]

Is he even invited?  If not, What's your point.

I get that you hate him and love Putin.

I love the UK more than I love Putin, and you know how much I love the UK.
Do you think in these peace negotiations that it would be a positive push if Zelensky leads with “we won’t negotiate if we lose any of our land” ?

[xuenchen]

[ReturnofBroccoli]

No, and here's why.  

Putin's objective is/was to restore Ukraine's condition as basically a vassal state, so it acts like a buffer between Mother Russia's heartland and the Western democracies.  That's basically what it was before the Maidan Revolution of 2014 started kicking the Russian puppet politicians in Ukraine out of power. In 2022 Putin thought he could restore that condition on the cheap, by assassinating Zelensky and re-taking the Ukraine government. And that's what he attempted to do in the opening weeks and months of the February 2022 invasion. The Putin-designated politicians who were supposed to have taken over after Zelensky was gone had already rented apartments in Kyiv in anticipation of Russian troops rolling into Kyiv.  

But that never happened.  The armored column that came down toward Kyiv out of Belarus got stalled and decimated, and had to retreat by April of 2022. So that meant that Putin had to go to plan B.  Plan B was/is to turn Ukraine into another "frozen conflict" on Russia's border--like the nation of Georgia.  In 2008, Russian troops invaded parts of the sovereign nation of Georgia, and did basically the same thing they would do again in Ukraine 14 years later. The areas inside those frozen conflicts are basically zombie regions--neither living nor dead, but fundamentally unable to mount any organized threat to Russia. To this day, Russia illegally controls about 20% of the land area of Georgia. 

But the population of Ukraine is about 10 times bigger than the population of Georgia, and Ukraine is fighting back strongly, while Georgia is not.  So Putin has not been able to get into the phase of a frozen conflict where he just has to maintain a small occupation force in the occupied territories to make sure no organized resistance springs up.  He's still sending new troops and weapons into the conflict zone on a daily basis to defeat the Ukrainian defenders and burning through his "single use" soldiers at a rate of 1,000 per day, or so, in the process.  

But military forces defending their territory have a numerical advantage over military forces trying to invade and subdue a hostile population.  In WWII, the calculation was that the Allies would have to show up with an army of 2 soldiers for every 100 German citizens in order to invade and occupy Germany.  The War went on for as long as it did primarily because it took that long to produce the supplies for that big of an army.  

The population of Ukraine is about 38 Million. So that would take an army of about 760,000 thousand Russians to invade and occupy.  Today, they have about 600,000 in and around Ukraine, or about 80% of what they should have.  Ukraine has about 900,000 men under arms, and they all have only one goal--kick Russians out of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine has no desire or intention to occupy Russian territory other than for perhaps a temporary tactical reason.  If they tried to invade and hold Russian territory, they would face the same problem in reverse that Russia is experiencing trying to invade and hold Ukrainian territory--only worse.

And recent estimates are that Russia is losing about 2 soldiers for every Ukrainian loss, so their burn rate is higher. In order for Russia to be winning, they have to get to a situation where they are not burning through men and material faster than they can replace them, and they are definitely not there. But if Trump manages to force a cease-fire in place, then Russia would be there--they would occupy the 20% of Ukrainian territory necessary to create a frozen conflict, and Trump would enable the "freezing" part of that. Putin would win.  Some of us conspiracy-minded folk think that's exactly what Trump's agenda is.

Yes and here's why

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1296...omparison/

This is What the US congress is basing their assessments on. What are your analysts telling you?
Whats a source your country is using for their assessment? I feel i was being pretty generous by stating they'd have to kill twice as many, its a lot worse.

[Kurokage]

Why dont you come invade it and find out 

I  already live in a country with a genuine royal family,  why would I want to live in one with an upstart who's pretending he is one??

[Kurokage]

So tired of that line...every vote is rigged unless its the outcome my side wanted. This or that country rigged this or that...maybe it is maybe it isn't. Did you not see our last handful of elections? Do you not see nations with the ability to rigging elections around the world to get what they want? We (the US) have been rigging elections all over the world for over 100 years to get what we want. Not just us but any group, person, or nation who can does and will try to set things up to get what they want.

Point of the matter is there was a vote...and Russia intends to see those parts of Ukraine seperated from Ukraine. They have the ability to make it happen and they are doing so right now...and there isn't much anyone can do short of going to war. One country had like 4x or 5x the manpower...the other was always going to lose unless other countries stepped in. You can't dictate terms to the side winning unless you can force them...we have tried...and failed to find that leverage. It is what it is...I wish more people could just see it and live with it so less people who don't want to die stop dying.

You maybe tired of that line but it's the truth! If you want to listen to Trump telling everyone the vote was rigged because he lost, then more fool you.

Maybe you should chat to Putin about it, I'm sure he'd like your support. After all it's been 3 years after his 'short' operation in Ukraine after he couldn't seize control politically. you said he "had like 4x or 5x the manpower" How's that going for him? I think that manpower number is down abit now??

[ReturnofBroccoli]

I  already live in a country with a genuine royal family,  why would I want to live in one with an upstart who's pretending he is one??

You dont have to live where you invade.....

[FlyersFan]

Russia has won and has no reason to give up what it has taken over.
Ukraine will refuse to acknowledge this and will force the war to continue.

Putin is a monster and will continue the meat grinder.
Zelenskyy is corrupt and will continue the meat grinder.

Neither Putin nor Zelenskyy want the war to stop.
Putin wants it to continue so he can gain  more land
And Zelenskyy wants it to continue so he can try to get the land back AND he sucks $$ off foreign countries.

I predict nothing will come from this peace summit.