Multiple Russian Tu-95 bombers burning a massive Ukrainian FPV drone strike

[Inspector44]

On the other hand, the strategic analyst Peter Zeihan made the interesting observation this morning that this attack had the effect of causing the biggest single reduction in Russia's strategic nuclear threat to the US since 1945.  

I disagree. Russia itself has caused the reduction of its own arsenal through mismanagement. Many reports say Russia's nuclear arsenal is only at 30-40%, if that. They simply don't have the budget to maintain the amount of nukes they say they have. Those bombers were never going to carry any nukes to the Mainland US. They are used for tertiary targets. If they don't have the nukes required to flatten the US before hand, they'd just be shot down. Ukraine probably hit a bunch of TU's going through depot maint or were inoperable anyways. Basically all he did was make a bunch of noise with no real damage to Russia done.

[Oldcarpy2]

"I disagree. Russia itself has caused the reduction of its own arsenal through mismanagement. Many reports say Russia's nuclear arsenal is only at 30-40%, if that. They simply don't have the budget to maintain the amount of nukes they say they have. Those bombers were never going to carry any nukes to the Mainland US. They are used for tertiary targets. If they don't have the nukes required to flatten the US before hand, they'd just be shot down. Ukraine probably hit a bunch of TU's going through depot maint or were inoperable anyways. Basically all he did was make a bunch of noise with no real damage to Russia done.'

Ukraine knows when and where from those bombers take off on their missions to strike them so I very much doubt they were striking duds.

At four airfields?

[Inspector44]

Ukraine knows when and where from those bombers take off on their missions to strike them so I very much doubt they were striking duds.

At four airfields?

They struck at aircraft that haven't moved in over 18 months at air fields that clearly don't have a lot of external security. This isn't the win you think it is.

[RickyD]

Yes, the TU-95 is roughly equivalent to the B-52.  Both first went operational in the early 1950s, both were very large, high-subsonic strategic bombers designed to carry large thermonuclear bombs over intercontinental distances.  Both have never stopped being targeted against the opponent from that time forward, and the production lines for both disappeared decades ago.  Once they're gone, they're gone. 

They didn't target the hangars because these were relatively small drones--carrying a payload of only a kilo or so of HE.  That small of an explosive would do no significant damage, to a hangar. The only way to take out one of these aircraft is to land on the wing directly over a fuel tank, blow a hole in the wing, and let the ensuing fire consume the rest of the aircraft.

Why this would be a big win (if it would be a big win) is a very interesting question.  Although this type of aircraft has been used in the past to attack Ukraine (usually with long-range stand-off weapons) this particular set of aircraft were ultimately aimed at the US and NATO.  As such, the attack doesn't seem to do much to relieve the immediate military pressure on Ukraine.  On the other hand, the strategic analyst Peter Zeihan made the interesting observation this morning that this attack had the effect of causing the biggest single reduction in Russia's strategic nuclear threat to the US since 1945.  Could this have been a strategic move on the part of Ukraine to show the West (and the US in particular) that it can be a valuable strategic partner, thereby ensuring more support from the West?

Not sure why they would even be counted as a nuclear threat these days...not a single one of their or our bombers of such class would make it anywhere close enough to drop anything. Its not like if a nuclear strike happened that they would even be used. Its probably why they were left out in the first place and not protected in a hangar like all the planes they do currently use...which none of were hit in this strike.

Its like they had a really good sneaky move to hit deep into Russia and wasted it hitting targets that really don't matter at all...and now the cat is out of the bag and they will take steps to prevent such attacks in the future. Well played Ukraine...real smart...

[Bush Master]

Why this would be a big win (if it would be a big win) is a very interesting question.  Although this type of aircraft has been used in the past to attack Ukraine (usually with long-range stand-off weapons) this particular set of aircraft were ultimately aimed at the US and NATO.  As such, the attack doesn't seem to do much to relieve the immediate military pressure on Ukraine.  On the other hand, the strategic analyst Peter Zeihan made the interesting observation this morning that this attack had the effect of causing the biggest single reduction in Russia's strategic nuclear threat to the US since 1945.  Could this have been a strategic move on the part of Ukraine to show the West (and the US in particular) that it can be a valuable strategic partner, thereby ensuring more support from the West?

Pretty clearly a ClA operation, like the one-off Neptune missile

[Bush Master]

They struck at aircraft that haven't moved in over 18 months at air fields that clearly don't have a lot of external security. This isn't the win you think it is.

Propaganda win...?

[Oldcarpy2]

"They struck at aircraft that haven't moved in over 18 months at air fields that clearly don't have a lot of external security. This isn't the win you think it is."

You know this, how?

[Ravenwatcher]

Russia basically asking Ukraine to surrender for a ceasefire agreement lol

[sahgwa]

These were largely not very strategically important, but still a blow is a blow.
I would be more worried about short, medium and intercontinental range ballistic missiles which Russia is hitting Ukraine with very often.
Like the Iskander platform and missile stockpiles and factories.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander

[SomeStupidName]

Not sure why they would even be counted as a nuclear threat these days...not a single one of their or our bombers of such class would make it anywhere close enough to drop anything. Its not like if a nuclear strike happened that they would even be used. Its probably why they were left out in the first place and not protected in a hangar like all the planes they do currently use...which none of were hit in this strike.

Its like they had a really good sneaky move to hit deep into Russia and wasted it hitting targets that really don't matter at all...and now the cat is out of the bag and they will take steps to prevent such attacks in the future. Well played Ukraine...real smart...

Idk, I think most news outlets report the damage as a third of what is considered to be a fully operation fleet. That type of military strike would trigger a full response. Lets say the fleet wasn't as operational as advertised and they don't care, that would be a clear sign that Russia was no longer a super power and I think that would cause some additional fallout. Also if you think U.S. couldn't get a b-52 to any point in the world it might surprise you.