More than 50 countries have reached out to the President to begin tariff negotiations

[quintessentone]

A cross examination into reality is required, your Honor.

"Inflation in Control for the USA

The current outlook for inflation in the USA suggests that it is not in control. The US inflation outlook indicates that the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) are expected to reach above 3% by the end of 2025, indicating a higher inflation rate than the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. This suggests that inflation is structurally higher post-pandemic and will continue to weigh on most households. 

rbc.com
The annual inflation rate for the United States was 2.7% for the 12 months ending June, compared to the previous rate increase of 2.4%. This rate is above the Federal Reserve's target and reflects a notable surge in price increases. 

US Inflation Calculator
Despite the challenges, the Federal Reserve has a forecast indicating a rekindling of inflation, and some analysts expect price increases to accelerate over the coming months as tariffs take hold. 

The White House
In summary, while there are signs of inflation being higher than expected, the Federal Reserve's target rate and the ongoing economic conditions suggest that inflation is not in control for the USA"

[putnam6]

We always jump the gun when it comes to the effects of tariffs. The known effects now are the up and down market reactions as well as corporate moves.

The actual reality is that tariffs have not yet been implemented, well at least for most things. Once they do, then let's have a real discussion.

As for being hall monitor, I calls 'em as I sees 'em, Captain. Isn't that what we are calling each other now on your thread? 

Counter points can indeed be actual cold, hard facts but you have already decided that they can only be counter concerns. Perhaps at this point in time, some can be just guesses, but I see you jumping through source hoops to try to prove your points that have counter sources debunking your claims, which you dismiss outright without discussion. Or what that other poster said, that you respond with incorrect information that the poster did not post, which helps your case. See where this is going?

So now you want an ignore button for your threads? Well that would certainly make it easier for you to discuss topics with yourself.

FFS, how are we discussing this NOW if Im...




Makes no sense.. 

Hell, I discuss more with you than I do with my family on this topic. 

All Im suggesting is for me and my situation my state and region, the economy, and the tariffs haven't negatively affected business yet, and as per my previous life experiences, as long as China is kept where it is now or even slightly better, we will be fine the next 6 months to a year. 

Not worried about the long-term effects at all, considering all the pundits were wrong about an immediate collapse, chances are those forecasts are suspect too...

[quintessentone]

FFS, how are we discussing this NOW if Im...

[Video: https://youtu.be/FG1NrQYXjLU?si=WLCcXM1ctIHBZ3WB]

Makes no sense.. 

Hell, I discuss more with you than I do with my family on this topic. 

All Im suggesting is for me and my situation my state and region, the economy, and the tariffs haven't negatively affected business yet, and as per my previous life experiences, as long as China is kept where it is now or even slightly better, we will be fine the next 6 months to a year. 

Not worried about the long-term effects at all, considering all the pundits were wrong about an immediate collapse, chances are those forecasts are suspect too...

It amazes me how you can make those types of statements without any research as back up....wait.. you are right...I can see clearly now what I am doing.




"As the second quarter earnings season progresses, companies have reported a combined loss of $7.6 billion to $8.7 billion between July 16 and 30 for the full year. Automotive, aerospace and pharmaceutical sectors were the worst hit, with GM accounting for a big chunk of the losses."

How companies are responding to Trump’s tariffs

[putnam6]

It amazes me how you can make those types of statements without any research as back up....wait.. you are right...I can see clearly now what I am doing.

[Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GArvpIPo54s]

"As the second quarter earnings season progresses, companies have reported a combined loss of $7.6 billion to $8.7 billion between July 16 and 30 for the full year. Automotive, aerospace and pharmaceutical sectors were the worst hit, with GM accounting for a big chunk of the losses."

How companies are responding to Trump’s tariffs

[Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSxAnE_9...rt_radio=1]

Im not trying to change your opinion, I am flattered you think Im amazing.... I still got it at

 

Im just stating my particular opinion, you can even call it hope if it makes you feel better

Again, my simple, naive, uninformed, non-researched (did I hit all your buzzwords)  opinion is that there won't be losses, just that the gains elsewhere will offset the losses.

No more, no less

[quintessentone]

Im not trying to change your opinion, I am flattered you think Im amazing.... I still got it at

[Image: https://media0.giphy.com/media/j2Z8ktYcH.../giphy.gif] 

Im just stating my particular opinion, you can even call it hope if it makes you feel better

Again, my simple, naive, uninformed, non-researched (did I hit all your buzzwords)  opinion is that there won't be losses, just that the gains elsewhere will offset the losses.

No more, no less

It will end up being more less and no more. But I hope I and all the economists are wrong

How ya do'in?

[putnam6]

for a broader perspective

the CCI has been in the 80s for the last 6 months, which usually signals recession, so an increase is promising


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consum...y-politics

[putnam6]

Even CNN agrees they never praise Trump

... I think the key word here is American



https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/29/business/consumer-confidence-july

 
Washington — 
The Trump administration’s trade agreements with a handful of countries are helping Americans feel somewhat more confident about the economy’s health and its future.
Consumer confidence climbed 2 points this month to a reading of 97.2, the Conference Board said Tuesday, showing people’s attitudes about the economy have stabilized after deteriorating sharply during the spring when Trump unveiled massive tariffs that threatened to jack up prices and weaken the labor market.
But consumer confidence has recovered somewhat since then. The stiff levies Trump unveiled in April have been delayed several times and the administration said it has brokered trade agreements with seven countries, including China, the United Kingdom and Japan.
Earlier this week, the Trump administration announced that it negotiated the contours of a trade agreement with the European Union, one of America’s biggest trading partners, describing it as the “biggest deal ever made.” The survey was conducted in the weeks leading up to July 20, so it doesn’t capture perceptions of the EU trade deal.
“Consumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April’s plunge, but remains below last year’s heady levels,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators, at The Conference Board. “Tariffs remained top of mind and were mostly associated with concerns that they would lead to higher prices.”
This month’s increase in consumer confidence was driven by people older than 35 and Republicans, who soured on the economy in June, according to a release.
The survey’s Expectations Index, capturing people’s outlook on income, business conditions and hiring, saw an even greater increase than the headline figure in July, rising 4.5 points from the prior month to 74.4.

[quintessentone]

for a broader perspective

the CCI has been in the 80s for the last 6 months, which usually signals recession, so an increase is promising


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consum...y-politics
[Image: https://denyignorance.com/uploader/image...31-239.jpg]

See the key descriptor words? Modestly. Stabilizing. Slightly. That should set off red flags that things are iffy.

[putnam6]

This is a fair assessment, too 


 

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July 2025, as reported by The Conference Board, rose by 2.0 points to 97.2 (1985=100) from a revised 95.2 in June 2025. This marks a stabilization after a sharp decline in April, though it remains below 2024's higher levels. The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, fell slightly by 1.5 points to 131.5, while the Expectations Index, based on short-term outlooks for income, business, and labor markets, increased by 4.5 points to 74.4. However, the Expectations Index is still below the 80 threshold, signaling potential recession concerns for the sixth consecutive month.
Additionally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for July 2025 was 61.8, a slight increase from 60.7 in June, marking the highest in five months but still 16% below December 2024 levels. Consumers expressed less pessimism about future business conditions and employment, but concerns about job availability persisted, with 18.9% of consumers noting jobs were hard to get, up from 14.5% in January.
Both indices suggest a modest improvement in consumer confidence, but ongoing worries about tariffs, inflation (with year-ahead expectations at 4.4% per Michigan’s survey), and a tight labor market temper optimism.

[putnam6]

This one ought to be interesting... Commercial Diplomacy 


 

 
The U.S.-Brazil trade negotiations in 2025 have been marked by significant tension, primarily driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to impose steep tariffs on Brazilian exports, escalating to a proposed 50% tariff set to take effect on August 1, 2025. These negotiations are shaped by a combination of economic, political, and diplomatic factors, with Brazil actively seeking to avoid these tariffs while exploring alternative trade strategies. Below is a detailed overview based on available information:
Background and Context

• Bilateral Trade Relationship: The U.S. and Brazil share a robust economic partnership, with two-way trade in goods reaching $92 billion in 2024, and the U.S. maintaining a trade surplus of $7.4 billion in goods and $28.6 billion when including services. Key U.S. exports to Brazil include aircraft, petroleum products, and machinery, while Brazil exports crude oil, coffee, steel, aircraft, and orange juice to the U.S.
  
• Existing Framework: The U.S. and Brazil do not have a formal free trade agreement but operate under the 2011 Agreement on Trade and Economic Cooperation (ATEC), expanded in 2020 with a Protocol on Trade Rules and Transparency, effective in 2022. This protocol covers trade facilitation, customs administration, regulatory practices, and anti-corruption measures.
  
• Mercosur Constraints: Brazil’s trade policy is limited by its membership in the Mercosur customs union (with Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay), which restricts unilateral tariff reductions and complicates negotiations with the U.S.
  

Key Developments in 2025

• Tariff Threats and Escalation:
  • Initial Tariffs (April 2025): In April, the U.S. imposed a 10% "reciprocal" tariff on Brazilian imports, with a 25% tariff on steel starting in March. Brazil viewed these as manageable and believed negotiations mitigated worse outcomes.
    
  • 50% Tariff Announcement (July 9, 2025): Trump announced a 50% tariff on all Brazilian goods effective August 1, citing Brazil’s alleged unfair trade practices, its prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro (a Trump ally), and claims of attacks on free speech and digital trade. This tariff level is unusually high, especially given the U.S. trade surplus with Brazil, and has been criticized as disproportionate.
    
  • Section 301 Investigation: On July 15, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) launched a Section 301 investigation into Brazil’s trade practices, focusing on digital trade, preferential tariffs, ethanol tariffs, and illegal deforestation. This could lead to additional tariffs if Brazil is found to burden U.S. commerce. Stakeholders can submit comments to USTR by August 18, 2025, with a hearing scheduled for September 3.
    
• Brazil’s Response:
  • Negotiation Efforts: Brazil has prioritized dialogue, with Foreign Trade Secretary Tatiana Prazeres and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin emphasizing a strategy of "negotiate, negotiate, negotiate." A trade proposal submitted by Brazil on May 16, 2025, remains unanswered by the U.S., and Brazil has urged the U.S. to respond to avoid escalation.
    
  • Reciprocity and Retaliation: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has pledged to respond with reciprocal measures under Brazil’s Economic Reciprocity Act if the 50% tariffs are implemented. However, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad clarified that Brazil would not unfairly target U.S. companies operating in Brazil.
    
  • Judicial Independence: Brazil’s Attorney General Jorge Messias has firmly rejected U.S. interference in the judicial proceedings against Bolsonaro, who faces charges related to an alleged 2022 coup attempt. Brazil insists these are internal matters under its independent judiciary.
    
• Economic Impact and Concerns:
  • Brazilian Economy: The proposed 50% tariffs could cost Brazil over 100,000 jobs and reduce GDP by 0.2%, with agribusiness exports like coffee and orange juice potentially halved. Companies like Embraer and Naturafrig are redirecting trade to other markets or using facilities in Mexico and India to bypass tariffs.
    
  • U.S. Impact: The tariffs would raise costs for U.S. consumers and disrupt supply chains, particularly for small businesses (6,500 U.S. firms rely on Brazilian imports) and industries dependent on Brazilian steel, oil, and coffee.
    
  • Global Implications: Brazilian officials warn that penalizing Brazil could strengthen Asian competitors, particularly China, and disrupt global trade flows.
    
• Alternative Strategies:
  • Diversifying Trade: Brazil is expanding trade agreements with other partners, such as the Mercosur-EU deal (concluded in 2024, awaiting ratification) and agreements with Singapore (2023) and the UAE. These aim to offset potential losses from U.S. tariffs.
    
  • WTO Action: Brazil is considering dispute settlement proceedings at the World Trade Organization (WTO) to challenge the tariffs as unfair and contrary to international trade rules.
    

Complicating Factors

• Political Tensions: Trump’s tariff threats are partly motivated by Brazil’s prosecution of Bolsonaro, which he calls a “witch hunt.” This has been a major roadblock in negotiations, as Brazil’s judiciary is unlikely to yield to external pressure.
  
• U.S. Corporate Reluctance: U.S. firms like General Motors and Alphabet are hesitant to lobby against the tariffs due to fear of retaliation from Trump, limiting Brazil’s ability to leverage U.S. business support.
  
• Negotiation Stalemate: The lack of direct engagement between senior U.S. and Brazilian officials, combined with unanswered Brazilian proposals, has raised concerns about reaching a deal by the August 1 deadline.
  

Current Status and Outlook

• Deadline and Uncertainty: While some analysts expect the August 1 deadline to be extended for further talks, others warn of a “no deal” scenario where the 50% tariffs are implemented, potentially triggering Brazilian retaliation.
  
• Business Community Advocacy: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and AmCham Brazil have urged both governments to negotiate to avoid tariffs, emphasizing the mutual benefits of the trade relationship.
  
• Brazil’s Resilience: Despite the tariff threat, Brazil’s economy is projected to grow 2.2% in 2025, supported by a strong jobs market and redirected trade to markets like China and the EU. However, inflation risks could rise if negotiations fail, potentially exceeding the central bank’s 4.5% target.
  

Critical Perspective
The U.S. justification for the tariffs—citing unfair trade practices and digital trade issues—appears inconsistent with the data, given the U.S. trade surplus with Brazil. The linkage to Bolsonaro’s trial suggests a political rather than economic motivation, raising questions about the tariffs’ alignment with WTO rules. Brazil’s insistence on judicial sovereignty and multilateralism reflects a principled stance, but its limited flexibility within Mercosur may hinder rapid concessions. Both sides risk economic disruption if escalation continues, and the lack of high-level dialogue underscores a broader challenge in U.S.-Brazil relations under the current U.S. administration.