More than 50 countries have reached out to the President to begin tariff negotiations

[Oldcarpy2]

​​​​​​it may not be over yet. We could still be at the very beginning.

Its also a little early to start thinking of names for a recession, if it even gets that bad. It looks like the "Yuge Recession" is leading in the polls.

Fear, and panic drive the markets, its not that different from the evening news.

How about the "It's Not My Fault It's Biden's and Nasty Countries Being Mean to Us" Recession.

[putnam6]

Too much green here for a freakout but thats what people do today...
 

[Oldcarpy2]

Too much green here for a freakout but thats what people do today...
 
[Image: https://denyignorance.com/uploader/image...05-852.jpg]

Dead cat bounces? World markets are a sea of red, again, but carry on regardless.

[IDELB2006]

Too much green here for a freakout but thats what people do today...
 
[Image: https://denyignorance.com/uploader/image...05-852.jpg]

That's kind of the point though. Trump could have reached out to each of these countries, and had negotiations like most normal countries would.

Instead we get public hype on the white House lawn, and this spectacle plays out in the news as expected.

As long as the majority of the countries bow to the pressure and make a deal, this will be a minor blip.

[putnam6]

The world's markets will recover

They are mostly down between 4-7 percentage points. For example, Japan's Nikkei closed down 7.83% and it's not even in the top 10 for losses. LOL it dropped 12% last August FFS

https://x.com/i/grok/share/ejJZyDfWwT9dMJTgC5zZJxVur 





even better

[Oldcarpy2]

The world's markets will recover

They are mostly down between 4-7 percentage points. For example, Japan's Nikkei closed down 7.83% and it's not even in the top 10 for losses. LOL it dropped 12% last August FFS

https://x.com/i/grok/share/ejJZyDfWwT9dMJTgC5zZJxVur 

[Image: https://media0.giphy.com/media/KNbUiMxeoB94c/giphy.gif]

[Image: https://denyignorance.com/uploader/image...02-218.jpg]

even better

[Image: https://denyignorance.com/uploader/image...54-336.jpg]

Anyone with common sense will know that countries won't be able to relocate manufacturing to the US for years.

Wonder if "Tony" has a pension fund?

[putnam6]

For a real stable and balanced perspective here's the percentage of the stock market's value tied up in pensions in the US 

At the most 25% of pensions are tied up in stocks and only a fraction of that is at risk, and that risk is usually temporary 1-2 years tops

https://x.com/i/grok/share/O4bptvSuVwdIUPz2feyUO5van

Employee pensions (public and private retirement plans) likely tie up 16-25% of the U.S. stock market’s value, with the range reflecting variability in allocation and market size. Globally, the picture shifts—pension funds worldwide hold about $21 trillion in stocks out of a $124 trillion global market (around 17%), but U.S. employee pensions are a dominant chunk of that due to the size of the American market and retirement system.
 

for further perspective here's information on the impact of a stock market crash on an individual pension.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/schtceV3qC2RCHGz28Mrv1od5

The impact of a stock market crash on an individual’s pension depends on several factors: the type of pension (e.g., defined benefit vs. defined contribution), the person’s age and investment timeline, the portfolio’s asset allocation, and the crash’s severity and duration. Let’s break it down:
1. Defined Benefit (DB) Pensions

• What They Are: Traditional pensions where the employer guarantees a fixed payout, often based on salary and years of service (common in public sector jobs or older corporate plans).
  
• Impact of a Crash:
  • Minimal Direct Effect: The individual’s payout isn’t tied to market performance—your monthly check stays the same regardless of a crash.
    
  • Indirect Risks: If the pension fund becomes underfunded due to stock losses (e.g., a 20% market drop cuts its equity value), the employer might need to contribute more. For private companies, bankruptcy risk could threaten the pension (though in the U.S., the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation insures some losses). Public pensions might face budget strain, but benefits are rarely cut directly.
    
  • Example: During the 2008 crash, the S&P 500 fell 37%, and some pension funds saw funding ratios drop (e.g., from 80% to 60% funded), but retirees still got their checks unless the employer went bust.
    

2. Defined Contribution (DC) Pensions (e.g., 401(k)s, IRAs)

• What They Are: Retirement accounts where the individual bears the investment risk, common in private sector jobs.
  
• Impact of a Crash:
  • Direct Hit: The account value drops in line with the market. If 60% of your 401(k) is in stocks and the market falls 30%, that portion loses 30%—a $100,000 stock allocation becomes $70,000.
    
  • Age Matters:
    • Young Workers (20s-30s): A crash hurts on paper, but with decades to recover, it’s often a buying opportunity. Historically, markets rebound (e.g., post-2008 recovery took 5-6 years for the S&P 500).
      
    • Near Retirees (50s-60s): The risk is higher. A 30% drop right before retirement could force delays or reduced withdrawals. For example, a $500,000 nest egg drops to $350,000, slashing safe withdrawal amounts (4% rule: $20,000/year to $14,000/year).
      
    • Retirees: If already drawing down, you might lock in losses by selling during a dip, shrinking the pot faster.
      
  • Allocation Matters: Most DC plans aren’t 100% stocks. A typical 60/40 stock-bond mix softens the blow—bonds often stabilize or rise during crashes (e.g., in 2008, U.S. Treasuries gained 20% while stocks tanked).
    
  • Example: In the 1987 crash (Dow -22.6%), a $100,000 portfolio with 60% stocks and 40% bonds might’ve dropped to $86,000-$90,000, depending on bond performance. In 2008, that same mix could’ve fallen to $75,000-$80,000.
    

3. Severity of the Crash

• Historical Context:
  • 1987 Black Monday: -22.6% in a day, but the market recovered within two years. Short-term pain, minimal long-term pension damage.
    
  • 2008 Financial Crisis: -37% over the year, with a peak-to-trough drop of 57%. A 60% stock portfolio lost 22-34%, devastating for those retiring in 2008-2009 but recoverable by 2013.
    
  • 2022 Bear Market: -25% in the S&P 500, less severe, with quicker recovery by 2024.
    
• Hypothetical: A 30% crash today on a $200,000 401(k) (60% stocks) cuts the stock portion from $120,000 to $84,000, total value to $164,000—a 18% overall hit, assuming bonds hold steady.
  

4. Mitigating Factors

• Diversification: More bonds or international stocks can reduce losses (though global markets often correlate in crashes).
  
• Automatic Rebalancing: Many plans adjust allocations over time (e.g., target-date funds shift to bonds as retirement nears).
  
• Timing: If you don’t sell during the crash and the market recovers, the impact fades. Post-1987 and post-2008, the Nikkei and S&P eventually hit new highs (though Japan’s took decades).
  
• Contributions: Ongoing deposits during a crash buy stocks at lower prices, boosting long-term gains.
  

Bottom Line

• DB Pension: Little to no direct hit unless the fund collapses—rare but possible (e.g., Detroit’s 2013 bankruptcy cut some pensions).
  
• DC Pension: A 20-30% market crash could slash your account by 10-20% (or more if stock-heavy), with the real damage depending on when you need the money.
  
• Average Impact: For a typical worker with a $100,000 mixed portfolio, a 1987-style crash might cost $10,000-$15,000 temporarily; 2008-style, $20,000-$30,000. Recovery hinges on time and discipline.
  

[Oldcarpy2]

OK.

So this is all genius economics from the Master of the Art of the bankrupt comp...I mean "the Deal".

Let's see how this pans out?

5 trillion dollars wiped off of companies' values.

And counting....

[UltraBudgie]

OK.

So this is all genius economics from the Master of the Art of the bankrupt comp...I mean "the Deal".

Let's see how this pans out?

5 trillion dollars wiped off of companies' values.

And counting....

think of it like a sale at your favourite store. or the dollar getting stronger and able to buy more stocks for cheaper!

i mean, it's not like that, but you can think of it that way, if it helps.

:beer:

[Oldcarpy2]

Now Musk, realising the impact of Trump's ruinous trade war on himself, now calls for zero tariffs.

Honestly, what a sh*t show?

Rats leaving sinking ship.