Hurricane Melissa Landfall soon - 185+ MPH Category 5 - 892mb

[argentus]

That doesn't look good at all. I hope there is more than just a pile of sand left after the storm.

Jamaicans are a resilient people.   They have sand, for the most part.  Neighboring countries/territories will help in the aftermath.   Jamaica will be changed.   It breaks my heart.

[putnam6]

It's going to traverse the western tip, starting at  sub.905mbs, it's going to do historically catastrophic damage. Prayer for those in the path, I hope the path is sparsely populated. People will be fighting for thier very lives soon


NHC update 11:00pmest last pressure at .903mb sustained winds 175

[Unknownparadox]

 BREAKING Hurricane Melissa Coverage - 175+ MPH Category 5 - WNW at 3 mph

So it could qualify as massive EF4 tornado 166-200 MPH

[argentus]

It's going to traverse the western tip, starting at  sub.905mbs, it's going to do historically catastrophic damage. Prayer for those in the path, I hope the path is sparsely populated. People will be fighting for thier very lives soon


NHC update 11:00pmest last pressure at .903mb sustained winds 175

Unfortunately, the probable path is already saturated and expected to absorb as much as 50 inches of rain.   Something that most people don't think about -- that is very salt-infused rain, nearly seawater.   It kills all the plants.   In the path of Melissa, things that were once green will be gray and dying.   The big things might survive, but the median or small things will not.

[DontTreadOnMe]

Unfortunately, the probable path is already saturated and expected to absorb as much as 50 inches of rain.   Something that most people don't think about -- that is very salt-infused rain, nearly seawater.   It kills all the plants.   In the path of Melissa, things that were once green will be gray and dying.   The big things might survive, but the median or small things will not.

And don't forget wind and storm surge. 

This may be the swan song for the name Melissa 

[argentus]

And don't forget wind and storm surge. 

This may be the swan song for the name Melissa 

It's true.  It's a powerful storm.  I think it might denintensify to a Cat 4 before make landfall.   Perhaps an eyewall replacement.  There are indications that support that probability.   The storm surge will manifest itself upon Haiti, The Cayman Islands, Cuba and Jamaica.   After that, it will bring higher seas eventually to the UK and Norway.

[DontTreadOnMe]

It's true.  It's a powerful storm.  I think it might denintensify to a Cat 4 before make landfall.   Perhaps an eyewall replacement.  There are indications that support that probability.   The storm surge will manifest itself upon Haiti, The Cayman Islands, Cuba and Jamaica.   After that, it will bring higher seas eventually to the UK and Norway.

Do you remember?   Is it as massive a storm in area as Katrina?

[argentus]

Do you remember?   Is it as massive a storm in area as Katrina?

I don't know, but would guess that Melissa, while being more intense than Katrina, is not as large in miles of influence.   It is a more tightly coiled storm, for lack of a more accurate term.  Katrina was massively large because it stalled a time or two and intensified and widened.  I believe Katrina was as much as 500 miles wide, perhaps more.  No, I don't believe it is as massive of a storm as Katrina, but I believe Melissa carries FAR more kinetic energy.

[putnam6]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 280257
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING
WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 78.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...903 MB...26.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 78.5 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
on Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday
and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is
expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across
southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning, and across the southeastern
or central Bahamas later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. However, Melissa is
expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely
powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength
when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 903 mb (26.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions
are expected to begin Tuesday morning. Within the eyewall, total
structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas
where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area starting Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti late
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday with hurricane conditions
also possible on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica late tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm
surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and
to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This
storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On
the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the
possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[putnam6]

LOCATION...16.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...901 MB...26.61 INCHES

6th lowest pressure EVER recorded for an Atlantic basin hurricane 
 

The lowest recorded barometric pressure in an Atlantic basin hurricane is 870 hPa (25.69 inHg), measured in Hurricane Wilma on October 19, 2005, during its rapid intensification phase in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Key Details:

• Source: Official National Hurricane Center (NHC) best-track data and post-storm analysis.
  
• Context: Wilma was undergoing explosive deepening, dropping 54 hPa in just 6 hours and 97 hPa in 24 hours (one of the fastest intensification rates on record).
  
• Verification: Aircraft reconnaissance (NOAA and U.S. Air Force) confirmed the central pressure via dropsonde.
  

Comparison to Other Notable Storms:
Hurricane
Year
Minimum Pressure (hPa)
Wilma
2005
870
Allen
1980
899
Gilbert
1988
888
Rita
2005
895
Labor Day
1935
892
Wilma remains the undisputed record holder for lowest pressure in the Atlantic basin as of October 2025. No storm has surpassed it in the official NHC archives.
166
WTNT33 KNHC 280546
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM
SURGE TO JAMAICA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...901 MB...26.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 78.4 West. Melissa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected today,
followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over
Jamaica today, across southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning, and
across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica later today. However,
Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an
extremely dangerous major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane
strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston,
Jamaica, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h)
and a gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 901 mb (26.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
to begin this morning. Within the eyewall, total structural failure
is likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds
atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to
30 percent stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba
today, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning
area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is
expected today into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9
to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast
of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4
feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart