10-21-2024, 02:39 AM
This post was last modified 10-21-2024, 02:40 AM by Maxmars.
Edit Reason: added content
From ArsTechnica: To the astonishment of forecasters, a tiny hurricane just sprang up near Cuba
A hurricane so small that it could not be observed by satellite formed this weekend, surprising meteorologists and even forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane Oscar developed on Saturday near Turks and Caicos, and to the northeast of Cuba, in the extreme southwestern Atlantic Ocean. As of Saturday evening, hurricane-force winds extended just 5 miles (8 km) from the center of the storm.
This is not the smallest tropical cyclone—as defined by sustained winds greater than 39 mph, or 63 kph—as that record remains held by Tropical Storm Marco back in 2008. However, this may possibly be the smallest hurricane in terms of the extent of its hurricane-force winds.
It's so small that apparently our satellite technology could not detect it... no one saw it coming.
It had been discovered because a flight happened to fly close enough to see it, and this story was born.
Oscar's development shocked forecasters. There was only a modest indication from satellite imagery, as of Friday, that anything would form; and none of the major global models indicated development of any kind. It was thought that the area of low pressure would get swamped by vertical wind shear this weekend as it neared Cuba.
However, the tiny size of Oscar confounded those expectations. Weather models struggle with the development of small hurricanes, and this is largely because the micro-physics of the smallest storms occur below the resolution of these models. Additionally, tiny hurricanes organize much more quickly and efficiently.
Cuba, and the Bahamas should feel the effects early this week...
"Out of the blue" has renewed meaning... I wonder how they will blame man-made climate change for this?
![[Image: hurricane-oscar-1000x856.jpg]](https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/hurricane-oscar-1000x856.jpg)
A hurricane so small that it could not be observed by satellite formed this weekend, surprising meteorologists and even forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane Oscar developed on Saturday near Turks and Caicos, and to the northeast of Cuba, in the extreme southwestern Atlantic Ocean. As of Saturday evening, hurricane-force winds extended just 5 miles (8 km) from the center of the storm.
This is not the smallest tropical cyclone—as defined by sustained winds greater than 39 mph, or 63 kph—as that record remains held by Tropical Storm Marco back in 2008. However, this may possibly be the smallest hurricane in terms of the extent of its hurricane-force winds.
It's so small that apparently our satellite technology could not detect it... no one saw it coming.
It had been discovered because a flight happened to fly close enough to see it, and this story was born.
Oscar's development shocked forecasters. There was only a modest indication from satellite imagery, as of Friday, that anything would form; and none of the major global models indicated development of any kind. It was thought that the area of low pressure would get swamped by vertical wind shear this weekend as it neared Cuba.
However, the tiny size of Oscar confounded those expectations. Weather models struggle with the development of small hurricanes, and this is largely because the micro-physics of the smallest storms occur below the resolution of these models. Additionally, tiny hurricanes organize much more quickly and efficiently.
Cuba, and the Bahamas should feel the effects early this week...
"Out of the blue" has renewed meaning... I wonder how they will blame man-made climate change for this?
![[Image: al16-landfall.png?ve=1&tl=1]](https://images.foxweather.com/static.foxweather.com/www.foxweather.com/content/uploads/2024/10/668/376/al16-landfall.png?ve=1&tl=1)
![[Image: AL16_Stats.png]](https://media.foxweather.com/weather/AL16_Stats.png)
