'City killer' asteroid now has 3.1% chance of hitting Earth: NASA

[putnam6]

'City killer' asteroid now has 3.1% chance of hitting Earth: NASA

An asteroid that could level a city now has a 3.1-percent chance of striking Earth in 2032, according to NASA data released Tuesday -- making it the most threatening space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting.Despite the rising odds, experts say there is no need for alarm. The global astronomical community is closely monitoring the situation and the James Webb Space Telescope is set to fix its gaze on the object, known as 2024 YR4, next month.

"I'm not panicking," Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society told AFP.

 
"Naturally when you see the percentages go up, it doesn't make you feel warm and fuzzy and good," he added, but explained that as astronomers gather more data, the probability will likely edge up before rapidly dropping to zero.
2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27 last year by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile.
Astronomers estimate its size to be between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 meters) wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of its light signatures suggests it has a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a worldwide planetary defense collaboration, issued a warning memo on January 29 after the impact probability had crossed one percent. Since then, the figure has fluctuated but continues to trend upward.

[UltraBudgie]

the probability will likely edge up before rapidly dropping to zero

This phrase is a bit of a tell. Any time you hear what the probability will "likely" do, it's by necessity a bit hand-wavey, isn't it? If they had a quantifiable metric of what the probability would do, that would be factored into the probability. Duh.

Anyway, how do they know the asteroid wants to hit a city? And the news article glosses over exactly what city. That matters! Okay, now I'm just being silly.

[quintessentone]

What global preparations are being made to protect us from a strike, one might ask?

First we need global cooperation and we know how that usually works out.

NASA is in talks with the U.N. Office for Outerspace Affairs and are developing protocols for how nations should respond to impacts.

Promising technologies within Planteary Defense Coordination Office (NASA) have several 'theoretical' approaches to redirect asteroids. But detonating a nuclear device is space really isn't such a good idea, now is it? Using solar sails or lazers may hold promise, but are not viable at this time because the window needed to act is very short. They are turning to AI algorithms allowing for quicker identification of dangerous objects in space and analyzing trajectories.

For now, get a bugout bag ready.

[Ravenwatcher]

Call me when it's a 60% chance - 3% is lower than standing under a flock of birds and getting pooped on

[quintessentone]

China is now getting into it! From AI search:

"Key points about China's new asteroid tracking agency:

• Focus on 2024 YR4: The primary reason for establishing this team is the growing concern about the potential threat posed by asteroid 2024 YR4, which is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters wide. Recruitment of specialists: The agency is actively recruiting experts to develop advanced asteroid monitoring and early warning systems.
  

• Planetary defense mission: China has also unveiled plans for a near-Earth asteroid defense mission, aiming to observe and potentially alter the trajectory of an asteroid around 2030.
  
• International collaboration: While China is forming its own team, they are also part of the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and collaborate with other space agencies to share information and coordinate responses. "
  
  Good, the more eyes on the skies, the better. But, there's more:
  

The China National Space Administration (CNSA) has a number of launches planned for 2025, including the Tianwen-2 probe and the Shenzhou-20 and Shenzhou-21 crewed missions. Tianwen-2 probe

• The Tianwen-2 probe will launch in the first half of 2025.
  

• The probe will collect samples from the near-Earth asteroid 2016HO3.
  
• The probe will also explore the comet 311P.
  
• The probe will deliver the samples to Earth around 2027.
  
• The probe will help scientists understand the composition and evolution of near-Earth objects
  

[putnam6]

Well, either we got a better look at it or it changed course...plotting 7-year orbits must be approaching limitations. 

 
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Steve Lookner

@lookner
·
4m

Odds of the asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 have now fallen to 0.0039%, according to NASA