G4 – Severe geomagnetic storm expected as multiple CMEs merge and impact Earth 5/11

[putnam6]

Wow the aurora borealis might be visible as far south as Alabama, hmmm might have to check and see if that applies to North Georgia. I cant recall the aurora borealis ever being this far south. Seeing different forecasts but it should be clear where I am at but with light and regular pollution might want to get up in the mountains

https://www.sciencefocus.com/planet-eart...-been-seen
 Produced by fast-moving particles from the Sun smashing into molecules in the upper atmosphere, the Aurora Borealis is normally thought of as something visible only above the Arctic Circle. Yet at times of high solar activity, they can be seen much further south: during the great solar storm of August and September 1859, the colours typical of aurorae were seen in Honolulu, just 21° north of the equator.
Historians have uncovered evidence suggesting that the southern hemisphere counterpart of the Northern Lights, the Aurora Australis, may have been witnessed even closer to the equator, with reports of the phenomenon being seen from Samoa in 1921, at a latitude of 13° south, and a disputed report from Singapore at just 8° south during the storm of 25 September 1909.
https://watchers.news/2024/05/09/g4-seve...on-may-11/
G4 – Severe geomagnetic storm expected as multiple CMEs merge and impact Earth on May 11A G4 – Severe or greater geomagnetic storm is expected on May 11, with effects potentially extending into May 12 and 13. The storm is anticipated to impact regions primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. It could lead to widespread voltage control issues, with some protective systems potentially tripping key assets from the power grid due to mistakenly identified faults. Pipeline currents are also expected to intensify.
Spacecraft systems may face surface charging, heightened drag on low-earth orbit satellites, and potential tracking and orientation challenges. Satellite navigation (GPS) systems may experience significant degradation or become inoperable for hours. High-frequency (HF) radio communication could face sporadic propagation or complete blackouts. The aurora borealis might be visible as far south as Alabama and northern California.


 G4 is the second-highest geomagnetic storm classification on NOAA’s scale, occurring approximately 100 times per solar cycle, which spans 11 years. The only classification above G4 is G5 – Extreme, which occurs around four times per cycle.
A G5 – Extreme geomagnetic storm can have widespread and significant impacts across various systems. In power systems, these storms can lead to voltage control issues and malfunctions in protective systems, potentially causing entire grids to collapse or experience blackouts. Transformers can also suffer damage due to increased electrical stress.

[FlyersFan]

I am 61 years old and all my life I've wanted to see them ... but never have.
Something always happens like rain out or I miss them etc etc
Maybe this time I will.
But It looks like rain here (Delaware) Tomorrow so ... dunno'.

[Blaine91555]

Bummer. Even though I live in Anchorage Alaska, we seldom have a clear sky when the aurora's are good. Again it's going to be too cloudy tonight.

Living where I do, we see them occasionally. Tonight's forecast after midnight is predicted to have a KP Index of 8 on a scale of 1 to 9.

This is the culprit...

[putnam6]

Bummer. Even though I live in Anchorage Alaska, we seldom have a clear sky when the aurora's are good. Again it's going to be too cloudy tonight.

Living where I do, we see them occasionally. Tonight's forecast after midnight is predicted to have a KP Index of 8 on a scale of 1 to 9.

This is the culprit...

Yikes wasn't that around the time when it hit, it fried the telegraph wires etc. 

Carrington Event

Geomagnetic solar stormThe Carrington Event was the most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history, peaking from 1–2 September 1859 during solar cycle 10. It created strong auroral displays that were reported globally and caused sparking and even fires in multiple telegraph stations. Wikipedia

[Maxmars]

I would like to add another article for everyone to consider.

From LiveScience.com: Gargantuan sunspot 15-Earths wide shoots powerful X-class flare toward Earth, triggering radio blackouts
 

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AR3664 is no ordinary sunspot. 
The behemoth dark patch on the sun's surface has ballooned in recent days, becoming one of the largest and most active sunspots seen this solar cycle. 
 AR3664 garnered the attention of scientists earlier this week as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center issued a warning of increased solar flare risk from the solar giant on Tuesday (May 7).
"Region 3664 has grown considerably and has become much more magnetically complex," NOAA's SWPC reports. "This has led to increased solar flare probabilities over the next several days." 
The giant sunspot has more than lived up to expectations. Firing out countless powerful solar flares in recent days, including a colossal X-class solar flare this morning (May 9), peaking at 5:13 a.m. EDT (0913 GMT).

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I figured "more is better" when learning of this kind of event, which thankfully hasn't spurred much 'doom porn' as it has in the past.


Shortwave radio blackouts observed over the sunlit portion of Earth at the time of the X-flare eruption.  (Image credit: NOAA SWPC)
 

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Although studies suggest Carrington-class solar storms occur every 40 to 60 years or so (and we are long overdue), there is no evidence that any CMEs currently en route from previous solar eruptions this week could cause a new Carrington Event, according to Spaceweather.com. 

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[putnam6]

I would like to add another article for everyone to consider.

From LiveScience.com: Gargantuan sunspot 15-Earths wide shoots powerful X-class flare toward Earth, triggering radio blackouts
 

---

AR3664 is no ordinary sunspot. 
The behemoth dark patch on the sun's surface has ballooned in recent days, becoming one of the largest and most active sunspots seen this solar cycle. 
 AR3664 garnered the attention of scientists earlier this week as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center issued a warning of increased solar flare risk from the solar giant on Tuesday (May 7).
"Region 3664 has grown considerably and has become much more magnetically complex," NOAA's SWPC reports. "This has led to increased solar flare probabilities over the next several days." 
The giant sunspot has more than lived up to expectations. Firing out countless powerful solar flares in recent days, including a colossal X-class solar flare this morning (May 9), peaking at 5:13 a.m. EDT (0913 GMT).

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I figured "more is better" when learning of this kind of event, which thankfully hasn't spurred much 'doom porn' as it has in the past.


Shortwave radio blackouts observed over the sunlit portion of Earth at the time of the X-flare eruption.  (Image credit: NOAA SWPC)
 

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Although studies suggest Carrington-class solar storms occur every 40 to 60 years or so (and we are long overdue), there is no evidence that any CMEs currently en route from previous solar eruptions this week could cause a new Carrington Event, according to Spaceweather.com. 

Some of the images over England are beautiful.... but I apologize if I implied this would be a Carrington-like event. That wasn't my intent. Mostly to establish the parameters of such phenomena 

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[Maxmars]

That's a beast of a storm!  I really hadn't read 'doom' into your post... sorry if it came off that way.  

But frequenting the internet has left me with a lot of exposure to 'doom'... and I fully expected a rash of "the world is ending" media pieces out there.  Yours was not.

[CCoburn]

I first heard about this on the radio earlier and then the station cut out to another station a few times and was like going from Judas Priest to Miley Cyrus and I'm thinking okay the radio waves are being affected by this, and then I started thinking that I know that there is some godly intelligent entity that is keeping an eye on the Sun so I'm thinking please don't let it kill the Earth, yet.

[Kenzo]

Could that make earthquakes bigger ?

[Maxmars]

Could that make earthquakes bigger ?

Short answer, no.  

Longer answer, unless we learn something new about the forces of nature, probably not.

Just my opinion, of course...