Azerbaijan Airlines E190 possibly shot down

[Zaphod58]

An Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer E190 crashed near the airport in Aktau, Kazakhstan while attempting an emergency landing. The flight was going from Baku to Grozny, when they crossed the Caspian Sea to Aktau. They declared an emergency and were having issues with altitude and airspeed during the Caspian Sea crossing. When they flight arrived at Grozny, the airport was fogged in, and a Ukrainian drone attack was underway. There were 62 passengers and 5 crew on board. Despite the violent crash, and the fact that only the aft portion survived the impact, officials are reporting that 32 people survived.

Video and pictures of the remains of the aircraft show holes, from very small, to fairly large on the elevators. Images from in flight appear to show small holes penetrating the cabin, and at least one life jacket with a hole in it. The damage doesn't appear to be severe enough to be caused by a Surface to Air Missile, which would have probably torn them apart. It does appear that it may have been proximity fused gun rounds however. If the Grozny forces were shooting at Ukraine drones, it's easily possible that the E190 could have been hit as well. It also appeared that the aft fuselage access hatch was open when the aircraft was attempting to land.

ASTANA/TBILISI/BAKU, Dec 25 (Reuters) - An Embraer (EMBR3.SA), opens new tab passenger jet crashed near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, killing 38 people, after diverting from an area of Russia that Moscow has recently defended against Ukrainian drone attacks.
Twenty-nine survivors received hospital treatment.
Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 had flown hundreds of miles off its scheduled route from Azerbaijan to Russia to crash on the opposite shore of the Caspian Sea, after what Russia's aviation watchdog said was an emergency that may have been caused by a bird strike. But an aviation expert suggested that cause seemed unlikely.

 https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacif...024-12-25/

[putnam6]

That was crazy and the video from inside just chaos, 

[guyfriday]

Could a bird strike have caused this, and the other question about that would be could the damage shown be from the crash landing?

Though to be fair if the Ukrainians shot this jet down, I wouldn't expect the media to credibly report on that... sadly.

[Zaphod58]

Could a bird strike have caused this, and the other question about that would be could the damage shown be from the crash landing?

Though to be fair if the Ukrainians shot this jet down, I wouldn't expect the media to credibly report on that... sadly.

It was over Grozny when it happened. What Ukrainian weapons systems could have shot it down?

The damage is completely wrong for a bird strike. The pilots might have confused the feeling and sound for a bird strike, but there's no way this damage was from a bird strike. And there were holes and damage already showing in flight before they got to Kazakhstan.

[guyfriday]

It was over Grozny when it happened. What Ukrainian weapons systems could have shot it down?

The damage is completely wrong for a bird strike. The pilots might have confused the feeling and sound for a bird strike, but there's no way this damage was from a bird strike. And there were holes and damage already showing in flight before they got to Kazakhstan.

I'm thinking machine gun, KVP maybe, something man portable easy to leave behind after the attack without any connections back to Ukraine. I doubt they would use and dump a US M2 but could be. The elevator damage seems to indicate that the rounds came from the below the jet and when the jet banked left and took damage on the vertical stabilizer from the left of the jet. A heavy machine gun used with an anti-aircraft mount (the tall, man portable setup) could easily do this type of damage. If the cockpit got hit would force the Pilots to take action and make that diversion and emergency landing. 

I guess another aircraft or drone could have been used, but something sized enough to do this should be picked up on radar. A couple of goons on the ground with a machine gun could do this without getting noticed by anyone.

[Zaphod58]

I'm thinking machine gun, KVP maybe, something man portable easy to leave behind after the attack without any connections back to Ukraine. I doubt they would use and dump a US M2 but could be. The elevator damage seems to indicate that the rounds came from the below the jet and when the jet banked left and took damage on the vertical stabilizer from the left of the jet. A heavy machine gun used with an anti-aircraft mount (the tall, man portable setup) could easily do this type of damage. If the cockpit got hit would force the Pilots to take action and make that diversion and emergency landing. 

I guess another aircraft or drone could have been used, but something sized enough to do this should be picked up on radar. A couple of goons on the ground with a machine gun could do this without getting noticed by anyone.

It's almost 750 miles from Mariupol Ukraine, which is about the closest city in Ukraine to the border, to Grozny. If Ukrainian troops, even a handful of them are that far into Russia, they're not going to be going after an Azerbaijani E190. They're going to be wreaking havoc on Russian supply dumps and targets. And if they're that deep into Russia, then Russia is utterly screwed as far as the war goes.

[guyfriday]

It's almost 750 miles from Mariupol Ukraine, which is about the closest city in Ukraine to the border, to Grozny. If Ukrainian troops, even a handful of them are that far into Russia, they're not going to be going after an Azerbaijani E190. They're going to be wreaking havoc on Russian supply dumps and targets. And if they're that deep into Russia, then Russia is utterly screwed as far as the war goes.

Valid points. Terrorism doesn't need to make sense though, it only needs to make the public nervous and scared. Going after the public is why they are often times targeted. Taking out a seemingly plane full of innocent passengers makes for a great target. Hitting the jet inside Russians boarder tells a narrative that Russian citizens and they allies are not safe anywhere.

This theory of the downing of E190 is just an idea I have based on my personal experience in the Marines. 

You have more experience in a plane than I do, so could a mechanical failure have done this to the jet?

[Zaphod58]

Valid points. Terrorism doesn't need to make sense though, it only needs to make the public nervous and scared. Going after the public is why they are often times targeted. Taking out a seemingly plane full of innocent passengers makes for a great target. Hitting the jet inside Russians boarder tells a narrative that Russian citizens and they allies are not safe anywhere.

This theory of the downing of E190 is just an idea I have based on my personal experience in the Marines. 

You have more experience in a plane than I do, so could a mechanical failure have done this to the jet?

Theoretically it could have.

The thing with the whole Ukraine being guilty scenario is that it’s going to piss off the people they’re relying on to survive. The far, far more likely scenario is that it was just bad timing, they arrived shortly after a drone strike started, and were casualties of a simple mistake in targeting.