New years predictions 2025

[chr0naut]

Imagine being so wrong and yet so confident. None of what you said has come to pass.

Trump has just made a deal with China to reduce the tariffs by 115% (from 125%).

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Secures a Historic Trade Win for the United States - The White House

This reduces tariffs between the countries to lower than they were when Trump left office back in 2020 (and the tariffs were unchanged during the Biden administration, at around 20% The current deal puts tariffs at about 10%).

This represents a total fail of Trump's attempts to raise tariffs. He has lowered them, and lost 12 trillion dollars from the US economy in the process. He calls this a historic trade win for the United States!

[Inspector44]

Trump has just made a deal with China to reduce the tariffs by 115% (from 125%).

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Secures a Historic Trade Win for the United States

This reduces tariffs between the countries to lower than they were when Trump left office back in 2020 (and the tariffs were unchanged during the Biden administration, at around 20% The current deal puts tariffs at about 10%).

So, I think you will find that my prediction came true.

If you are going to post an article make sure you understand what it says. It absolutely does not say tariffs will be 10%. it says an additional 10% will be added after the drop.

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart | PIIE

looks like US is at 51% and China is at 32%

so no, your prediction is inaccurate.

[chr0naut]

Oops. I am getting tired. It's 3AM here.

Can you quote from the White House announcement where it says the 10% is additional?

Also, as mentioned, the 10% is a base rate. There are different tariffs for different sectored goods.

And additionally, the fact that Chinese traders have been shipping through other countries to avoid the worst of the tariffs, muddies the picture, too. You see, it's all sorts of companies who are trading the goods, not the Chinese government, and the Chinese government doesn't actually pay any the tariffs.

The tariffs get paid by US citizens when they buy stuff that's come from overseas. And since the extra money from the trade gets collected by the US government, its a lot like an additional tax that US citizens have to pay, isn't it?

[Inspector44]

Oops. I am getting tired. It's 3AM here.

Can you quote from the White House announcement where it says the 10% is additional?

Also, as mentioned, the 10% is a base rate. There are different tariffs for different sectored goods.

And additionally, the fact that Chinese traders have been shipping through other countries to avoid the worst of the tariffs, muddies the picture, too.

The tariffs get paid by US citizens when they buy stuff from overseas. And since the extra money from the trade gets collected by the US government, its a bit like an additional tax on US citizens, isn't it?

• In reaching an agreement, the United States and China will each lower tariffs by 115% while retaining an additional 10% tariff. Other U.S. measures will remain in place.
  

Personally I hope China fails, I'm sick of their sub par trash flooding the markets here. I'm sick of the work I have to do to report and disposition Chinese counterfeit parts. As an example, the Cisco Network switches, that mount into server racks, that several suppliers shipped to both Boeing and Northrop Grumman were completely filled with after market hay wires and fake components. Several of those were actual escapements.

The tariffs have not affected me at all. I started a new job, I bought my truck with cash, gas here hovers between $2.50 and $2.80 a gallon, I live in a low cost of living flyover state, I grow most of my own vegetables plus I have a community free market once a month, I don't drink booze, especially Canadian booze and I have dozens of chickens. My expenses are actually lower since I dropped State Farm for homeowners insurance.

The only problem I see is when all these jobs come back, you will literally have to force people back to work because welfare has been so easy to collect for so long. It'll be an work or starve situation.

[chr0naut]

• In reaching an agreement, the United States and China will each lower tariffs by 115% while retaining an additional 10% tariff. Other U.S. measures will remain in place.
  

Personally I hope China fails, I'm sick of their sub par trash flooding the markets here. I'm sick of the work I have to do to report and disposition Chinese counterfeit parts. As an example, the Cisco Network switches, that mount into server racks, that several suppliers shipped to both Boeing and Northrop Grumman were completely filled with after market hay wires and fake components. Several of those were actual escapements.

I work in IT, and have purchased some genuine Cisco and Palo Alto products. A layer 3 smart switch from CISCO or Palo Alto costs like $33,000. The same thing can be sourced elsewhere (probably China) for less than $2,000. It's OK if you have money to burn and no sort of business sense.

But China also makes quality goods, too. Where do you think iPhones come from?

Also, imagine how much an American made iPhone would cost (probably double the cost).

There's a lot of stuff that the USA just cannot manufacture at the moment. Rather than trying to waste money getting it made in America, why not just pick and choose from other places for a competitive price?

The USA with its service economy has the fiscal power to pick and choose. And they can, and do, make mass-produced crappy goods in the USA too.

8 Reasons for the Decline of Quality in America

When you force all those workers into mass production lines in the US, the prices will go up and quality will go down. Why bother?

[Inspector44]

I work in IT, and have purchased some genuine Cisco and Palo Alto products. A layer 3 smart switch from CISCO or Palo Alto costs like $33,000. The same thing can be sourced elsewhere (probably China) for less than $2,000. It's OK if you have money to burn and no sort of business sense.

But China also makes quality goods, too. Where do you think iPhones come from?

Also, imagine how much an American made iPhone would cost (probably double the cost).

There's a lot of stuff that the USA just cannot manufacture at the moment. Rather than trying to waste money getting it made in America, why not just pick and choose from other places for a competitive price?

The USA with its service economy has the fiscal power to pick and choose. And they can, and do, make mass-produced crappy goods in the USA too.

8 Reasons for the Decline of Quality in America

When you force all those workers into mass production lines in the US, the prices will go up and quality will go down. Why bother?

iPhones are now over $2k so they are not cheap regardless of where they are made. I have a pair of Keens and Corcorans I've had for over 20 years, still good boots. All of my PPE that I've purchased from American made suppliers are still in top shape. I own two jeeps and an F-150 covered in after market American made parts, none have failed except stuff I intentionally broke by ripping things off on a tree or rock and even then its life time warranty replacement. I have seen the same stuff bought from Harbor freight or 4wheelparts made in China that fail on first use. Because of my job, I get to inspect American made avionics LRUs and sub assemblies all over the country...well mostly in Huntsville Alabama, but I've seen comparable units from American made and Chinese companies and the quality difference is immediately obvious. We just make shit better here despite what some random article written by a guy who has never inspected anything in his life says.

[ntech]

But the weakness China has is it needs customers for their products to keep the factories humming and the people fed.   With the US tariffs China is losing it's customer base.   Also it appears China has been hiding it's problems from the world for years.  Decades probably.   And Covid may have taken out a sizable percentage of the Chinese population over the past 6 years.  Even at the low numbers quoted in those videos losing 3-4 hundred million peasants is a huge number.  

Imagine the US if we had lost 30% of the population to Covid.  That just may have happened in China and they're doing a massive coverup.   And the Great China's facade is showing a few cracks.