More than 50 countries have reached out to the President to begin tariff negotiations

[putnam6]

The statement that the maximum effect of high tariff rates was supposed to be $1200-$1500 a year for a household is generally false, or at least a significant understatement based on recent economic analyses.
Multiple recent reports from various economic research groups, including Yale Budget Lab, Center for American Progress, American Action Forum, Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center, and Tax Foundation, suggest that the annual cost to US households from tariffs is significantly higher.
Yale Budget Lab, Center for American Progress, and other think tanks put the average annual cost to households in this range, with some going as high as nearly $5,000. These estimates vary depending on the assumptions made about how tariffs are absorbed into the economy, the specific tariffs included, and whether retaliatory tariffs are considered.
Lower-income households are often disproportionately affected by tariffs, as they spend a larger percentage of their income on goods that are subject to tariffs (like clothing, food, and electronics).

Im not going to go over my position, it's been stated as clearly and concisely throughout the thread. Furthermore, Im not trying to change your views, just expressing mine and why.

Feel free to disagree, it's okay to have differing opinions, to believe different sources

Mine came from Grok

Some people are optimistic, and some are pessimistic 

And FWIW, I'm low-income, have been since COVID, even I can manage the 150 to 200 a month if it ACTUALLY materializes.

Go argue with Grok or any other AI source, LOL Grok even refers to your Yale source from May 23rd which was before the proposed China deal...

​​​​​​read it, know it, live it 

Budget Lab at Yale estimates that the 2025 tariffs, as of May 23, 2025, increase consumer prices by about 2.2% in the short run, equating to an average loss of purchasing power of approximately $3,600 per household (in 2024 dollars) before substitution effects (e.g., consumers switching to cheaper alternatives). After substitution, the loss is estimated at $1,800 for households at the bottom of the income distribution.

Go ask Grok or your favorite flavor AI source....

"With the new trade deals now, how much will the cost per family be​​​​​?

I copied it verbatim for your reading enjoyment. Here are some of the sources it used 
  

• Budget Lab at Yale - Provided estimates on the impact of 2025 tariffs, specifically the 2.2% increase in consumer prices and the average loss of purchasing power of approximately $3,600 per household (before substitution) and $1,800 for lower-income households after substitution. Referenced as of May 23, 2025.
  
• Peterson Institute for International Economics - Cited for their 2024 analysis estimating that proposed tariff policies could cost middle-income households at least $1,700 annually, with potential for higher costs due to retaliation or economic slowdowns.
  
• General Web and X Post Data - Used for contextual details on the U.S.-China and U.S.-UK trade deals in 2025, including tariff reductions (e.g., U.S.-China tariffs lowered to 30%, U.S.-UK deal with 10% baseline tariffs) and the U.S. average effective tariff rate of 15.8% as of June 17, 2025. Also referenced retailer statements (e.g., Walmart) on price hikes due to tariffs.
  

These sources were synthesized to estimate the cost per family, factoring in the mitigating effects of the 2025 trade deals and the broader tariff environment. 
 

Tariffs, like those imposed or modified in 2025 under the Trump administration, act as a tax on imported goods, often passed on to consumers through higher prices. A key source from the Budget Lab at Yale estimates that the 2025 tariffs, as of May 23, 2025, increase consumer prices by about 2.2% in the short run, equating to an average loss of purchasing power of approximately $3,600 per household (in 2024 dollars) before substitution effects (e.g., consumers switching to cheaper alternatives). After substitution, the loss is estimated at $1,800 for households at the bottom of the income distribution.
The trade deals with the UK and China, announced in May and June 2025, respectively, have reduced some tariffs from their peak levels. For instance, the U.S.-China deal lowered tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% (from a potential 55% or higher), which could mitigate some price increases. The U.S.-UK deal expanded market access for American exports, potentially lowering costs for specific goods like beef and ethanol, but it retained a 10% baseline tariff. These reductions might ease the burden slightly, but the overall tariff environment remains high, with the U.S. average effective tariff rate at 15.8% as of June 17, 2025, down from a peak of 27% earlier in the year.
However, these deals don’t fully offset the broader tariff impact. The Peterson Institute estimated in 2024 that Trump’s proposed tariff policies (pre-2025 deals) could cost middle-income households at least $1,700 annually, with potential for higher impacts if retaliation or economic slowdowns occur. The 2025 deals with the UK and China may reduce this slightly by lowering some trade barriers, but experts note that tariffs still act as a tax on U.S. consumers, with retailers like Walmart indicating price hikes due to remaining high tariffs (e.g., 55% on Chinese goods in some cases).
For a precise number, the $1,700 to $3,600 range per household is the best estimate based on current data, leaning toward the lower end if the UK and China deals reduce costs as intended. Lower-income families may face closer to $1,800, while the average could be higher if additional tariffs are imposed or if negotiations with other countries (e.g., Canada, EU) falter by the July 9 deadline.
Keep in mind that these figures are aggregates and don’t account for specific family consumption patterns (e.g., reliance on imported goods like apparel or electronics). The real cost depends on how much a family buys tariff-affected goods and whether businesses absorb or pass on costs. Ongoing trade talks and potential tariff reinstatements could also shift these numbers.