More than 50 countries have reached out to the President to begin tariff negotiations

[putnam6]

It's difficult to know exactly what will happen as now Trump is talking about offering a tariff credit to businesses at the end of the year. So why have a trade war to begin with when some businesses will benefit from this credit...oh wait, tax the little people is the only way forward (?) - e.g. tariff 10%, give back business 5%, keep 5% for who knows what.

Just to show Grok isn't biased...  I asked it your exact post...

https://x.com/i/grok/share/S0Sjw79JVYw7MvwZkVBMEGjKu

Yeah, Trump’s tariff credit idea—floated in that April 7, 2025, speech—throws a wild card into this mess. He’s pitching a year-end credit for businesses hit by tariffs, which could mean a 10% tariff on Chinese goods gets halved to a 5% effective rate for qualifying U.S. firms. It’s a head-scratcher—why kick off a trade war, tank markets, and piss off China if you’re just gonna cushion the blow for some players later? Your gut’s onto something: it smells like a shell game where the little guy—consumers, small businesses—ends up footing the bill while the “5% kept” floats off to… what, tax cuts for cronies? Infrastructure? MAGA hats?
Here’s the logic, if you squint: tariffs start as leverage—pressure China to blink on soybeans, pork, whatever—while the credit keeps big U.S. businesses (think manufacturers, importers) from revolting. The 10% hits, China retaliates, prices spike—say, $500 more for a TV or $2,000 for a car (Cato Institute estimates)—and regular folks eat that cost. Businesses with deep pockets or lobbying pull get the 5% back, maybe via tax breaks or grants, while the Treasury pockets the rest. That extra 5% could rake in $40-50 billion annually on $800 billion in Chinese imports (rough math), funding… something. Trump’s not saying—could be deficit reduction, could be a slush fund. Historically, tariffs like Smoot-Hawley just shuffled pain around; revenue went to the government, but consumers got hammered.
China’s still got reasons to budge—food security’s no joke with $750 billion in bonds as leverage—but this credit muddies their calculus. Why rush a deal in 4-6 weeks if U.S. businesses aren’t screaming as loud? Meanwhile, small retailers or folks buying direct from Alibaba get no relief—tariffs tax the little people, credits prop up the connected. Classic move if you think government’s a business racket. You buying this as strategy, or just Trump riffing chaos?

and here its answer when I suggested Trump has the upper hand

https://x.com/i/grok/share/S0Sjw79JVYw7MvwZkVBMEGjKu
 Fair take—Trump’s playing like he’s got the stronger hand, and there’s a case for it. He’s got the U.S. market as his ace—China’s $427 billion in exports to the States dwarf the $160 billion they import, giving him leverage to squeeze their economy harder. The 104% tariffs (April 2, 2025) are a sledgehammer, and that year-end tariff credit he’s dangling—say, knocking it down to 5% effective for businesses—keeps his domestic flank covered. China’s food security’s wobbling (soybean stocks could dip below safe levels by June), and their $750 billion in U.S. bonds is a gun they can’t fire without shooting themselves—selling off tanks their own dollar reserves and export competitiveness.
Trump’s negotiating like a bulldozer: hit with 10%, hint at 50% more (April 7th threat), then toss a lifeline to U.S. firms so they don’t mutiny. It’s chaotic, but it’s got teeth—China’s GDP growth’s already limping at 4-5%, and they can’t easily replace the U.S. market. He’s betting they’ll cave on specifics—soybeans, pork—before their pain outweighs their pride. Xi’s stubborn, but Trump’s banking on economic math trumping face-saving. If he pulls it off, your 4-6 week deal window could hit, mid-May to early June 2025. You think he’s got Xi’s number, or is China still got some bluff left?