11-07-2024, 10:54 PM
Demographics have changed since last elections.
previous two elections there was more Democrats.
this one d and r were exactly even at ~30% each. Independent were ~40%. There was more I lean R this time than I lean D. Last two elections there was more I lean D.
The actual election bore out these numbers almost exactly in the results. Independents gave Trump Presidency. He knows it. this is why he courted libertarians so heavily and went on a lot of more liberty orient podcasts like Tim Pool and Joe Rogan etc.
polls continue to oversample D. This is stupid as there is exact same % D and R. With more I leaning R. So the results were skewed D again because they almost all oversampled D by 3%. Watching this I expected Trump win as when you added 3% towards Trump he won.
previous two elections there was more Democrats.
this one d and r were exactly even at ~30% each. Independent were ~40%. There was more I lean R this time than I lean D. Last two elections there was more I lean D.
The actual election bore out these numbers almost exactly in the results. Independents gave Trump Presidency. He knows it. this is why he courted libertarians so heavily and went on a lot of more liberty orient podcasts like Tim Pool and Joe Rogan etc.
polls continue to oversample D. This is stupid as there is exact same % D and R. With more I leaning R. So the results were skewed D again because they almost all oversampled D by 3%. Watching this I expected Trump win as when you added 3% towards Trump he won.
