10-10-2024, 01:52 PM
(10-07-2024, 05:21 AM)Anna Wrote: What Lukashenko says might be pure propaganda and nothing more.
However, he can be searching for a pretext to attack Ukraine. It's not a secret he's being pressured by Putin to join the war. So far he hesitated because he was afraid of potential riots at home if Belarusian soldiers started dying or if he announced mobilization. But nobody really knows what's going on in his head or what Putin promised him.
I doubt the Belarusian army is strong enough to occupy parts of Ukraine but opening a new front would distract Ukrainians' attention and further weaken the defense of the Eastern front.
You would be correct in your assessment about Belarus not being strong enough to do much of anything, but that's not why Putin is trying to push Belarus into the conflict. Putin wants to be able to use Belarus' border on the NW of Ukraine as a beachhead to launch attacks from. If Belarus doesn't engage Ukraine then Russians coming into Belarus in force would look like a Russian invasion of Belarus. Putin wants to be able to attack Ukraine from as many sides as possible to spread Ukraine out impossibly thin.
