Putin’s Far East bases are being abandoned

[andy06shake]

That is an interesting observation that warrants more attention. Russia and the Soviet Union's population survived a civil war and two world wars in the 20th century. How the war in Ukraine ends is unlikely to involve Russia running out of personnel for the frontline and wartime economy.

I mean i think it's a safe bet to say Russia has a long, brutal history of absorbing staggering losses and still sustaining a war effort.

But that doesn't mean the demographic impact is small this time around.

The world has spun since the Cold War era.

Birth and death rates across the nations in question have significantly changed.

And considering Russias already aging population, which is shrinking....

Plus, they appear to be already short on skilled labor. 

The point isn't that Russia will run out of men completely, or Ukraine, for that matter. 

But wars don't need to depopulate a nation to cripple its future.

[quintessentone]

 
The war is hollowing out the demographic core of both countries.

They are both losing large numbers of young men, the very group that normally becomes the next generation of workers, parents, and community leaders.

And even those who survive are returning with life-altering injuries and trauma.

They are destroying entire generations. 

Let's not forget the exodus of young people from both countries at the start of this war. There is no way to know the exact numbers of young men and women that returned.

Russian emigration during the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present) - Wikipedia

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"A large number of young Ukrainian men have left the country in the past two months following an August 2025 decision allowing males aged between eighteen and twenty-two to travel internationally. While there are no exact figures confirming how many men have exited, the exodus has sparked a lively debate within Ukrainian society and added to existing concerns over the deteriorating demographic situation in wartime Ukraine.

 With millions of Ukrainians crossing the border in both directions each week, it is difficult to gain a clear sense of the recent surge in young men traveling abroad. Britain’s Daily Telegraph reported in late October that almost one hundred thousand Ukrainian males in the eighteen to twenty-two age bracket had entered Poland during the previous two months. Meanwhile, Germany’s Interior Ministry noted that the number of young Ukrainian men registering in the country had risen tenfold from around one hundred per week to almost a thousand."

Ukraine's youth exodus highlights mounting demographic challenges - Atlantic Council

Women being recruited into male-dominated jobs:

"Ukrainian companies are responding to these new recruitment realities in a variety of ways. With hundreds of thousands of men now serving in the military, more and more women are being recruited to take on professional roles traditionally occupied by males. In an August 2024 article highlighting this employment trend, the New York Times claimed that the unprecedented wartime influx of women was “reshaping Ukraine’s traditionally male-dominated workforce, which experts say has long been marked by biases inherited from the Soviet Union.”"

"Why more and more women are choosing to enlist in the Ukrainian military"

"An increasing number of women are joining the Ukrainian military. Thousands of females are now serving in frontline roles as Russia's full-scale war on the country approaches its fourth year."

Why more and more women are choosing to enlist in the Ukrainian military : NPR

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"Kateryna "Meow" Troian
Kateryna Troian, known by her call sign "Meow," was a first-person view drone operator with the 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade. Tragically, she was killed in action at the age of 32 while serving on the Pokrovsk front in Donetsk Oblast. Kateryna had joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces less than two years prior and completed over a thousand successful drone sorties. Her bravery and skill were recognized by her comrades, who remembered her as a dedicated and fearless warrior. Her story was shared in various forums, including a photo exhibition titled "Women Defending Ukraine," emphasizing the vital role women play in the military."

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"This summer, a drone unit in Zaporizhzhia, known as the Ronins, told Business Insider that it flew quadcopters up to 34 miles to attack Russian air defense systems — a range that was almost unheard of among drone units.Earlier this month, Ukrainian soldiers told Business Insider's Jake Epstein that both Kyiv's and Moscow's forces were starting to deploy more expensive medium-range drones, previously reserved for reconnaissance, to conduct strikes up to 125 miles from the front line.
 
Skarlat, whose foundation collaborates with manufacturers to make custom drones for Ukrainian units, expects shorter-range quadcopters to soon fly even further.
 
"FPV drones are actually only at the beginning of their evolution," said. "This is a field that's still in its formative stage. Like the first smartphone in the era of landline phones.""

Ukrainians Are Pushing Small FPV Drones to Strike Nearly 40 Miles - Business Insider

These are $500 small drones blowing up Russia's expensive equipment and/or the older rag tag Mad Max equipment they put together.

[Kurokage]

That is an interesting observation that warrants more attention. Russia and the Soviet Union's population survived a civil war and two world wars in the 20th century. How the war in Ukraine ends is unlikely to involve Russia running out of personnel for the frontline and wartime economy.

If you follow any of the reports coming out of Germany and other eastern countries that aren't printing the Russian propaganda, it does appear as though Russia and Ukraine are losing an entire generation of mostly males to war.

Russia has also raised the conscription age and as I've said, they also gone to all year round conscription. This can only be bad news, and it's also telling if they've pretty much run out of viable tanks and vehicles. What happen to the soldiers driving those vehicles??

[Sky727]

There are reports from different sources that Russia is having a budget deficit due to the revenue from the sale of petroleum has decreased around 35%... They are having problems paying troops and the sign up bonus is less than 20% of what it was last year.  We can not believe almost anything we read or hear from either side as we all know however ..... If the revenue stats and payments to the troops is true then there are big cracks in the big bad invaders; standby !

[xpert11]

If you follow any of the reports coming out of Germany and other eastern countries that aren't printing the Russian propaganda, it does appear as though Russia and Ukraine are losing an entire generation of mostly males to war.

Russia has also raised the conscription age and as I've said, they also gone to all year round conscription. This can only be bad news, and it's also telling if they've pretty much run out of viable tanks and vehicles. What happen to the soldiers driving those vehicles??

The loss of a generation to a deadlocked battlefield is a WW1 Western Front throwback. The war in Ukraine is in an awful interim where both sides seek to find ways to break the deadlock. Once technological means to deal with drones are developed, that equipment must be manufactured and integrated into an army's training. 

Most of the soldiers currently serving at the Ukrainian frontlines won't survive to see battlefield mobility restored. However, given Russian corruption and both sides' limited industrial output, it isn't clear if sufficient amounts of the related air defences could be produced to alter the war's outcome.

[quintessentone]

Ukraine accepts U.S.'s amended peace deal. Zelensky will go to Washington to sign finalized peace deal.

"Amendments to peace plan
The recent amendments to the peace plan have been made to address the differing positions between the US and Ukraine, as well as the European Union. The US plan, initially proposed by President Trump, included a 28-point framework that required Ukraine to cede territory, cut its military, and pledge never to join NATO. However, the EU's counter proposal, drafted by Britain, France, and Germany, aimed to uphold Ukraine's sovereignty and included a total non-aggression agreement between Ukraine, Russia, and NATO. The European plan also proposed a larger peacetime army for Ukraine and stronger security guarantees, keeping the door open for Kyiv to join NATO.
The amendments to the US plan included changes to narrow the differences between the sides, such as the role of NATO and the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, stated that the negotiations had been productive and that the sides had made "tremendous" progress during the talks. However, the exact details of the amendments remain unclear, and further discussions are needed to resolve the many contentious points of contention between Moscow and Kyiv."

Ukraine peace plan amendments 'don't suit' Russia

Russia won't go for it, I am hazarding a guess.

[Kurokage]

There are reports from different sources that Russia is having a budget deficit due to the revenue from the sale of petroleum has decreased around 35%... They are having problems paying troops and the sign up bonus is less than 20% of what it was last year.  We can not believe almost anything we read or hear from either side as we all know however ..... If the revenue stats and payments to the troops is true then there are big cracks in the big bad invaders; standby !
[Video: https://youtu.be/y1KiWBWjm2c]

Yeah, it does appear as though the revenue for Russian gas and oil has dropped and Ukraine's attempts at sabotaging the manufacture and supply has also had an effect.

It is difficult to find decent and unbiased sources, but there are the occasional leaks that trickle out of Russia.
I decided to post this story as it seemed less biased, and just points out the facts taken from the satellite photos.

[Kurokage]

The loss of a generation to a deadlocked battlefield is a WW1 Western Front throwback. The war in Ukraine is in an awful interim where both sides seek to find ways to break the deadlock. Once technological means to deal with drones are developed, that equipment must be manufactured and integrated into an army's training. 

Most of the soldiers currently serving at the Ukrainian frontlines won't survive to see battlefield mobility restored. However, given Russian corruption and both sides' limited industrial output, it isn't clear if sufficient amounts of the related air defences could be produced to alter the war's outcome.

I think if Ukraine can continue to drag out Russia's slow march forward, then the dire effects on the Russian economy and it's soldiers can only get worse for Putin's regime in the long run. This will have lasting effects on both sides but Russia stands to lose the most here in my opinion. 
It's shown it's no longer the worlds 2nd greatest military and after this it will be lucky to make the top 5, if it's sell off of it's gold bullion is true, then trying to rally the economy will be a lot harder.
Also as you've stated, increasing it's industrial output once it's war footing is reduced is going to be hard slog.

[Kurokage]

This from the financial times...

https://www.ft.com/content/8f48960d-8d6a...56d516a4cc

Chinese exporters charge Russia more for war supplies.

Chinese exporters have been raising prices for Russian military-industrial buyers, exploiting the Kremlin’s reliance on their supplies as western sanctions restrict imports, new research has revealed. Prices of export-controlled products shipped from China to Russia rose 87 per cent between 2021 and 2024 on average, according to a new paper from the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (Bofit). The price of similar goods shipped elsewhere rose only 9 per cent.

A senior western sanctions official told the Financial Times that while they would like to see Russia’s military-industrial complex “cut off” from its suppliers, Chinese companies “ripping them off” was a “pretty good outcome. If you increase the price of a good by 80 per cent, you nearly halve what they can actually buy.”

They concluded sanctions have “limited Russia’s technological capabilities by making the importing of critical goods more expensive”. In some cases, they found that increases in the value of export-controlled imports from China to Russia had been driven entirely by price rises rather than an increase in trade flows. By 2024, Russia’s imports of Chinese ball bearings had surged 76 per cent since 2021 in dollar terms. But the volume of exports dropped 13 per cent over that time.

[quintessentone]

This from the financial times...

https://www.ft.com/content/8f48960d-8d6a...56d516a4cc

The Chinese gouging Russia and decreasing their imports is quite the additional blow.