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US Dept. of Labor keeps lying... - Maxmars - 08-21-2024
In another of nearly countless "corrections" after the fact, and after being used for political claims... the UD Department of Labor once again issues a "corrected" report ... this time indicating making a colossal adjustment downward... the largest since 2009...
From Fox Business: US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported
The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down its total tally of jobs created in the year through March by 818,000 as part of its preliminary annual benchmark review of payroll data. That suggests the economy added an average of 174,000 jobs per month during that time period — below the previous 242,000 estimate. On a monthly basis, that amounts to about 68,000 fewer jobs.
It marks the largest downward revision since 2009.
What surprises me is that "news media" ignores that this department almost NEVER makes an accurate report.
Personally, I think this serves as a clear example of why "political appointees" SHOULD NOT BE TRUSTED with "REPORTING" responsibilities.
[edit to add another source]
From ZeroHedge: US Jobs Revised Down By 818,000 In Election Year Shocker, Second Worst Revision In US History
Back in March, when most of Wall Street and economists still believed the lies spewed forth by the Biden Bureau of Labor Statistics, which intentionally uses inaccurate, rushed "data" from the Establishment survey which is meant to pad sentiment and make the economy appear far stronger than it is for propaganda purposes (as one can see by the constant monthly downward revisions), we did an in-depth analysis looking at the actual, "uncooked" numbers published by the Philadelphia Fed preview of the annual Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages employment revision, and warned our readers that actual US payrolls are overstated by at least 800,000.
Philadelphia Fed Admits US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000 https://t.co/JZZxweddh9
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 28, 2024
Specifically, we concluded that "the BLS had overstated payrolls by 800,000 through Dec 2023 (and more if one were to extend the data series into 2024)" and added that "it's truly statistically remarkable how every time the data error is in favor of a stronger, if fake, economy."
...
As for broader socio-political implications, the reactions are already pouring in with those on the blue side of the spectrum pretending nothing happened, while those on the other side of the aisle raging at what has now become clear propaganda by the highly politicized Department of Labor. To wit, here is RFK, Jr., proposed VP candidate Nicole Shanahan slamming the BLS, and using our data to do so:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has long been used as a tool of propaganda by the executive branch. Here’s how: they distort definitions, manipulate data, exclude discouraged workers, and revise past reports to create narratives that fit the agenda of whichever administration is in power. This skews the actual economic picture and misleads citizens about the true state of our economy. It’s like a game of musical chairs, and neither side wants to be caught standing when the music stops. The Constitution doesn’t grant the government the authority to track unemployment statistics, so why do we even have this agency? Perhaps it’s time to get rid of it. Their $750M budget could surely be put to better use, and private companies already track U.S. unemployment for free. Win-win.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has long been used as a tool of propaganda by the executive branch. Here’s how: they distort definitions, manipulate data, exclude discouraged workers, and revise past reports to create narratives that fit the agenda of whichever… https://t.co/IANDELO9G9
— Nicole Shanahan (@NicoleShanahan) August 21, 2024
We agree: back in March we concluded our article, which predicted today's revision with near 100% accuracy, by warning that the staggering size of the revised data "is also why nobody in the mainstream media - which is now nothing more than the PR smokescreen for the Biden puppetmasters, the government and the deep state - will ever mention this report."
Today it will be more difficult for the propaganda press to ignore it.
RE: US Dept. of Labor keeps lying... - l0st - 08-22-2024
Oh yeah, they've been at this for decades now. Remember, they have not only been downgrading the stats ex-post-facto they also changed the way the unemployment stats are calculated in 2009. The stats now exclude those who have been out of the job market for longer than 2 years as "no longer looking" whether they're actually still seeking work or not. This was done to reduce the appearance of the effects of the '08 real estate bubble burst as many could not find gainful employment for YEARS after the fact. Same strategy they're using now to make the crime stats look better - they just refuse to report or legalize or refuse to prosecute certain crimes so they are no longer included in the stats and it looks like rates went down.
The other piece, which I think is also run by the BLS/DOL is the Consumer Price Index. They revised that in 2000 to exclude major economic factors like grocery prices. Not only does it artificially deflate the numbers, but it also makes those numbers incomparable to those published previously, and possibly without the consumer of those data products knowing that the numbers are different.
RE: US Dept. of Labor keeps lying... - KTemplar - 08-22-2024
Just about every parent I know has 20+ yr olds who cannot find jobs despite having degrees in some cases. Most have been looking for over a year now!
We all expect our kids to live with us for years to come. Which I’m fine with, but these kids want to be on their own.
My job just cut our OT pay for Sundays.
I’ve lost 3 Drs in a 1 yr period due to them leaving practices.
I’m in taxachusetts. I used to love my home state, but it’s quickly becoming the new Hollyweird, and flooded with immigrants (illegals aliens).
This is not sustainable! Mark my words, this country is going to see a wave of credit card/home/car pymt delinquencies like they’ve never seen.
I speak to people of all walks of life daily, and they are losing their collective sh$t, and are becoming very aggressive. I hear most of them blame the news media a lot!
If Trump doesn’t win, this country is done! God help us!
RE: US Dept. of Labor keeps lying... - Maxmars - 08-22-2024
(08-22-2024, 08:28 PM)KTemplar Wrote: Just about every parent I know has 20+ yr olds who cannot find jobs despite having degrees in sim cases. Most have been looking for over a year now!
We all expect our kids to live with us for years to come. Which I’m fine with, but these kids want to be on their own.
My job just cut our OT pay for Sundays.
I’ve lost 3 Drs in a 1 yr period due to them leaving practices.
I’m in taxachusetts. I used to love my home state, but it’s quickly becoming the new Hollyweird, and flooded with immigrants (illegals aliens).
This is not sustainable! Mark my words, this country is going to see a wave of cc/home delinquencies like they’ve never seen.
I speak to people of all walks of life daily, and they are losing their collective sh$t, and are becoming very aggressive.
If Trump doesn’t win, this country is done! God help us!
I do agree that the current batch of policy-makers are hell-bent to establish policies and practices to empower their notional future, and it has nothing to do with 'citizens.'
I discovered long ago that there is no "going back to the way things were," and I expect if things don't start changing from the top down, thing will not improve for the people organically.
I too think that Trump represent a change, but I am always hesitant because I have been disappointed too many times before. Trump's record, while exemplary in many senses, was not devoid of missteps.
I would rather it were Trump, if only because I already know what to expect from this latest experiment in "executive leadership by partisan committee."
Ban puppeteers, I say. Start electing actual leadership... not "party loyalists."
RE: US Dept. of Labor keeps lying... - l0st - 08-23-2024
(08-22-2024, 08:28 PM)KTemplar Wrote: Just about every parent I know has 20+ yr olds who cannot find jobs despite having degrees in some cases. Most have been looking for over a year now!
We all expect our kids to live with us for years to come. Which I’m fine with, but these kids want to be on their own.
I knew people who graduated college in '08-'09 who had to move back in with their parents. They ended up working at Starbucks and Subway and serving tables and things like that. Even years on most of them never actually found a job in their field of study and were still working these service jobs. I know 2 of them intentionally defaulted on their student loans with no intent to pay them back since they never found jobs.
I've seen lots of hate towards that and the latest gen online over the years - especially with claims that they are lazy, or don't want to work, or refuse to move out of the house. I'm glad that you recognize that your kids are not in this position of their own volition.
It was very difficult for me starting out decades ago and I just couldn't imagine it now with the stagnant salaries and incredibly high prices. How does a kid even get started on their own in 2024? Is it even possible? Even in the states that have raised minimum wage above the $7.25/hr minimum, its still typically not enough to move out on your own. I think they highest paying minimum wage state is California. Good luck living anywhere in California on $16/hr! Good luck living ANYWHERE in the United States on $7.25/hr!
RE: US Dept. of Labor keeps lying... - KTemplar - 08-23-2024
l0st
I think it is becoming impossible for the younger people, and it’s unfair.
Yes alot of us had roommates when we were starting out, but it seemed to only have to be a year or two to save up. Now it’s next to impossible unless you inherit some property.
I often wonder why do people have to die slowly of Alzheimer’s in a facility for years (what kind of quality of life is that), it’s so all their money can be drained. The family struggles with the sadness of watching them deteriorate and not know who they are. I have a pact with my sister to take me to the campground and cover the tailpipe if that happens to me.
My father always said life is for the young! I believe he is right, and that we can do better for the next generations and they are getting shafted by the stupid decisions of our leaders (who live like millionaires from gifts/inside info in the stock market). Creating wars that needn’t be to generate monetary wealth. It’s fng disgusting and shameful.
I am really afraid for our country. People need to vote in every election, starting with their towns/state.
I watched 5 minutes of the Democrat convention last night and had to turn it off when Pink started singing what about us. Hello Pink, there are more homeless people then ever. People are hungry, and depressed. People cannot find jobs; and who’s been in office these last 3-1/2 years Biden/Harris.
I worked with a younger guy who I had great respect for. He wanted to major in psychology, but due to the cost went for a trade in plumbing. He’s smart, kind and highly intelligent and would have made a great therapist. I don’t doubt he will be successful in whatever he does, but we are losing good talent. Even he told me he plans on moving to another country someday as he doesn’t feel it’s possible to progress here anymore.
We need to invest in the younger generations and I feel they aren’t getting sh$t.
I pray for them all the time!
RE: US Dept. of Labor keeps lying... - pianopraze - 08-23-2024
Not having stars and flags makes it so I feel I can’t engage. I agree with threads, but there is no way to interact so I go days with just watching threads but not engaging.
*shrug*
back to lurking. Good thread op.
RE: US Dept. of Labor keeps lying... - Lynyrd Skynyrd - 08-23-2024
One interesting part of this story is that there was NO negative market reaction to the news that job numbers have been exaggerated for years. The opposite happened, stocks rose, supposedly at the prospect of a rate cut.
I wonder if the traders knew all along that the BLS was giving them "extra-good" job reports that would rally the market?
RE: US Dept. of Labor keeps lying... - Maxmars - 08-23-2024
I think that the "market" and it's captains of industry, are all well aware of the difference between a "political" report and reality.
Most, being driven by revenue streams and optimal returns on investment, will "use" the foolish tomfoolery of "political appearance" to their advantage regardless of the facts.
The success of the Bank is the ultimate "proof in the pudding."
Nothing the Bank does is for the benefit of anything or anyone other than the Banks and their well-hidden beneficiaries. Nothing. Ever.
This is the true price of embracing a monopoly as "the only way."
We are their servants... by virtually every measure... we haven't even the option to demand answers (anathema)...
Banks... a modern 'face' of royal sovereignty over ALL human endeavors.
It makes sense that they can "decide" what we can and cannot know... thus what we are told to presume is real by the political clown show, is ultimately irrelevant.
RE: US Dept. of Labor keeps lying... - l0st - 08-23-2024
(08-23-2024, 11:33 AM)KTemplar Wrote: I am really afraid for our country. People need to vote in every election, starting with their towns/state.
...
I worked with a younger guy who I had great respect for. He wanted to major in psychology, but due to the cost went for a trade in plumbing. He’s smart, kind and highly intelligent and would have made a great therapist. I don’t doubt he will be successful in whatever he does, but we are losing good talent. Even he told me he plans on moving to another country someday as he doesn’t feel it’s possible to progress here anymore.
This is the first election cycle since I have been old enough to vote that I do not plan on voting. The elections have been rigged since 2000. I've continued voting since then but after the shit-show last time, why even bother? Its totally obvious at this point that its all staged, the citizenry has no real voice, and will do whatever the world overlords have in store for us.
Local voting doesn't matter anymore either, IMHO. I've just watched the local races here and the politics and grandstanding seem to have trickled all the way down to the local level. We even had a Sheriff who demanded a $79M budget increase citing personnel shortages. Our local Council immediately questioned his request and when pressed for answers, he said it was representative of the future employment needs over the next 20 years as based on population projections, that he wasn't sure he would get the money later, so he wants it all now so he can get more Deputies on board. Of course, our City Council balked at this request, at which point the Sheriff went to the local paper and had them print a piece and statement from him saying we were trying to "defund the police." This notion is completely ridiculous. Our county is very well covered and very low crime, and is given increases by the Council yearly as needed. The Council voted against his request, but did grant him a pretty much standard budget increase for the coming year. He lost the election.
This just goes to show you, though, that this type of alarmist politics and lack of care for the actual needs of those being represented has now filtered all the way down to the local level. We've been having major problems with county run sewers and storm water runoff pretty much county-wide (have been neglected for decades) and not a single candidate at any level has offered any solutions to the problems. Its gotten so bad that in certain developments, those who have the means have been moving out and basically abandoning their houses. There is a class-action in the works right now where a several hundred residents are getting ready to sue the county. We're having some problems even where I am, but they are not as severe as what I have seen in some other parts of the county where it would appear that proper drainage systems were simply never installed. We have them here but they definitely lack maintenance. I've been eyeballing a few storm drains up the street that I may just go clear out with a shovel myself.
I'm on board with your friend who was talking about moving overseas. I've made a few trips overseas in the last year, and unlike all the Hollyweirdos who always claim to be bailing out if so-and-so is elected, I've actually been looking at properties to purchase. I've previously owned 2 businesses, last of which went under due to Covid shutdowns. I have been essentially unemployed since. It seems pointless to start another business here now as virtually every industry has one locked out by corporate monopolies, and if you can find something worthwhile to do, nobody actually has the money to buy or get anything done. And don't even get me started on the licensing and regulations and reporting and blah blah blah that you practically need a CPA to handle these days.
Over about the last 3 months I've been keeping an eye on a string of small businesses here that have failed. 5 or 6 of them and one of them in business for 35 years! Its getting bad because even the big-box home improvement retailers have been saying that they can't find installers anywhere. I'm also noticing the same pattern like before the '08 pop where construction has slowed or halted. There were plans here for Aldi to build a new grocery store that seem to have evaporated. There was a highway expansion going on that now seems to be halted and no, its not finished. Chik-fil-a was in the final stages of approval with the county to build a new site and that just came to a halt a week ago. Point being, if these megacorps aren't making money and have stopped investing then how they hell do they expect the little guy to innovate and make it in this economic climate?
(08-23-2024, 04:20 PM)Lynyrd Skynyrd Wrote: One interesting part of this story is that there was NO negative market reaction to the news that job numbers have been exaggerated for years. The opposite happened, stocks rose, supposedly at the prospect of a rate cut.
I wonder if the traders knew all along that the BLS was giving them "extra-good" job reports that would rally the market?
This really isn't all that unusual. I had a level-II console and used to day trade. The stock goes up because, and antithetical as it may seem, less hires means less payroll and tax costs and therefore more profits. There are several companies that exploit this pattern. One company that comes to mind is Cisco, who basically holds at least 1 big layoff a year, usually around the time the IRS tax year resets, and if that's not enough of a bump they'll do another one in December. The pattern is not unique. Take a look at some historical charts for other companies that have announced layoffs during an earnings call and they nearly always go up. Its all about the earnings per share. If the layoffs mean earnings per share go up above projections then investors will rally.
