Climate "tipping point" - Stop misusing the words

Climate "tipping point" - Stop misusing the words - Printable Version

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Climate "tipping point" - Stop misusing the words - Maxmars - 08-03-2024

I'll start off by admitting that we should be concerned about the climate. Just as we should be concerned about any global dynamics that affect our lives and the lives of our future generations.

But the angry, alarmist-activists who's purpose is to garner attention, should be exposed to reality... namely that "We don't know everything, and what we do know is both incomplete, and only partially understood."

From PhysOrg: Not the day after tomorrow: Why we can't predict the timing of climate tipping points

First some housekeeping stuff you can skip, if you are so inclined...

The article appears under what PhysOrg labels as "Editor's Notes" - Whether or not this is a left-handed way to disguise an "opinion" article, is unclear to me. But it is important to recognize that it is not being "published" as climatology cannon, meaning the author still maintains a firm "greenhouse gas" orientation.
The source material for this article is a scientific journal publication from "Technical University Munich."
The source paper: Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data

In my opinion, the long and short of it is an affirmation that the exclamatory utterances of professional "activists", "We're all gonna be doomed because of our climate suicide;" and those proselytizing such things, are based upon an extremist position lacking sufficient data, and lacking any solid affirmative actual evidence. The paper authors demonstrate that the "plus or minus" figure in any 'forecast" or prediction about "climate tipping points" is so large as to make predictions of that sort disharmonious with reason.

...First, predictions rely on assumptions regarding the underlying physical mechanisms, as well as regarding future human actions to extrapolate past data into the future. These assumptions can be overly simplistic and lead to significant errors.

Second, long-term, direct observations of the climate system are rare and the Earth system components in question may not be suitably represented by the data. Third, historical climate data is incomplete.

Huge data gaps, especially for the longer past, and the methods used to fill these gaps can introduce errors in the statistics used to predict possible tipping times.

To illustrate their findings, the authors examined the AMOC, a crucial ocean current system. Previous predictions from historical data suggested a collapse could occur between 2025 and 2095. However, the new study revealed that the uncertainties are so large that these predictions are not reliable.

Using different fingerprints and data sets, predicted tipping times for the AMOC ranged from 2050 to 8065 even if the underlying mechanistic assumptions were true. Knowing that the AMOC might tip somewhere within a 6,000-year window isn't practically useful, and this large range highlights the complexity and uncertainty involved in such predictions....

I happen to think that the problem about the discussion isn't that we really needn't "change our ways"... I think we do. The problem is that if you tell climate activists that they are fearmongering, and it is being exploited... they freak out and proclaim that "You must be one of those people." (Assuming they actually care about what they are paid to do.)

Yes, everything humans discard accumulates and has a direct impact on the environment. We discard too much, and live too much for today. As the population growth declines it will become clearer that the future matters differently than today, so let's not encourage suffering over a envisioned crisis which we know so little about. We can do better certainly... but we have to admit that we don't know everything... and neither does the climate "activist," (nor those who employ them.)

RE: Climate "tipping point" - Stop misusing the words - guyfriday - 08-03-2024

the AMOC is already slowing down to a pace that resembles where it was pre 14th Century, and that many of the Worlds governments knew about a coming ice age (re-glacialization Period) since at least the 1950s. Hell, the whole idea behind Walt Disney's EPCOT City was based around this possibility.

We need to understand that the Holocene Glacial Retreat Period is over, and we're going into the next period of Earths age. Man Made Climate Change as a global driver is a joke at best and a global money laundering scheme at worst.

RE: Climate "tipping point" - Stop misusing the words - FlyingClayDisk - 08-04-2024

(08-03-2024, 08:56 PM)guyfriday Wrote: ... Man Made Climate Change as a global driver is a joke at best and a global money laundering scheme at worst.

Here, here! I would only add that man-made climate change is a joke at best, and a global money laundering and lying, misleading and intentionally deceptive excuse for unbridled taxation at very LEAST!

RE: Climate "tipping point" - Stop misusing the words - 727Sky - 08-05-2024

RE: Climate "tipping point" - Stop misusing the words - l0st - 08-08-2024

I think climate change is real. However, I am not convinced that humans are the primary driver, although it is certain that we do collectively impact the climate. Historical record seems to indicate that the climate has basically always been changing. After all, the pyramids at Giza once sat adjacent to a flowing river and tropical rainforest. My grandfather owned mountain top property with a shale bed on it that contained layers of sea fossils.

I think where it is reasonable, we should seek to mitigate our own impact. The "crying-wolf" about climate emergency is a lot of hot air pushed out by the greenwashing movement to create demand for electrification. We have investors who have pumped billions into the development of solar, EVs, etc and they want a return on their investment.

Battery & supercap tech probably is the way to go over the long term but the timeframes the lobbyists want to place on the transition are extremely ambitious. It took the US a solid 50 years to build out the gasoline distribution network to the point it is practically ubiquitous. Similar buildout needs to happen for electric and I just don't see the sheer volume of infrastructure and support that needs to be built happening in the 5-10 year sunset dates they keep pushing. Even 20 years is... very ambitious... and will need gigantic amounts of investment.