Voter turnout

[UltraBudgie]

That is a very good point that it is in local elections that there is still the least disaffection, a hope that true change is possible, the choices aren't all just different flavours of [censored], and votes really do matter. Although party-line "pull the lever" voting by the majority of voters makes this somewhat difficult to believe there, too.

And yes office holding is a responsibility, not a popularity contest! In theory, anyway. In practice it seems to be all about appearances, the entrenched bureaucracy and surrounding apparatus seems to run everything anyway. After all, both with Regan and Biden we had essentially mentally non-functional presidents for much of their terms, and it didn't really seem to matter one bit, as long as people believed they were putting their suit on and sitting at their fancy desk each day.

It does seem this nation was founded on principle of local-up governance giving a foundation of integrity. As Chiefsmom just said "The only way to attempt to get back to that time, is to go vote", but it reminds me of this quote that Albert Einstein didn't say: "We can not solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them”.

[pianopraze]

I got to the voting location 20 minutes before it opened at 6 am.

There was already a long line.


I think voter turnout is going to be high this year.

[UltraBudgie]

One inversion I have noticed is the label "faithless electors". I don't want to vote for President. That's not how our system works. I would like to vote for a person of integrity from my community, whom I can trust to research all the political garbage and cast their vote in the Electoral College. But, it seems that the laws have been skewed to require electors to abandon their responsibilities and make pledges ahead of time! To me, that's faithless. They're even subject to legal penalty if they don't cast their votes in a certain direction! You can't find the name of the electors you're voting for on a modern ballot. I don't know what that is, but it's not the system of government our Constitution establishes.

[UltraBudgie]

It looks like "Aarrgh No Make It Stop Make It Stop" has won once again, with 87,192,673 votes, soundly defeating Donald Trump's 71,979,150 votes.

Voter turnout was down somewhat from 2020.

Year  Rate    Ballots      Eligible   
2024  64.52%  158,549,000  245,741,673
2020  66.38%  159,738,337  240,628,443
2016  60.12%  138,747,904  230,780,798
2012  58.57%  130,231,296  222,437,494


Source: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/voter-turnout/

[UltraBudgie]

There's a narrative about 20 million missing votes and 2020 or whatever going around.  I don't trust other's presentations very much, so I made a thing!

These numbers are from The New York Times and the Florida University Election Lab.  The 2008 Voter Turnout number is from Wikipedia.



Here are the raw numbers:

Year   Eligible   Turnout    Democrat   Republican
2008   213313508  131406895  66862039   58319442
2012   222437494  130231296  62611250   59134475
2016   230780798  138747904  65853625   62985106
2020   240628443  159738337  81284666   74224319
2024   245741673  152967700  68999737   73349596

The narrative about missing votes seems to come from this devilish little edit on Wikipedia:


https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?tit...1256009943

Which inserts an essentially fabricated number into the voter turnout data series. Please note that I'm not saying that everything was on the up-and-up with any election, or otherwise; I'm only presenting the best data I could find. Plus, the data may be wrong, but if so it's not because I changed it.


Edit: Also please note 2024 turnout numbers here are current ballots counted (152M estimated), the number in my previous post was ballots cast (158M estimated), so as the final numbers trickle in the decline in voter turnout in 2024 will presumably become less pronounced.

[pianopraze]

Demographics have changed since last elections.

previous two elections there was more Democrats.

this one d and r were exactly even at ~30% each. Independent were ~40%. There was more I lean R this time than I lean D. Last two elections there was more I lean D.

The actual election bore out these numbers almost exactly in the results. Independents gave Trump Presidency. He knows it. this is why he courted libertarians so heavily and went on a lot of more liberty orient podcasts like Tim Pool and Joe Rogan etc.

polls continue to oversample D. This is stupid as there is exact same % D and R. With more I leaning R.  So the results were skewed D again because they almost all oversampled D by 3%. Watching this I expected Trump win as when you added 3% towards Trump he won.

[UltraBudgie]

Updated nummers:

2024 Presidential Election:

Date      Eligible Voters   Ballots Counted    Democrat Votes    Republican Votes
Nov 7th   245,741,673       152,967,700        68,999,737        73,349,596
Nov 10th  244,666,890       154,757,700        70,979,779        74,708,357
Change    -1,074,783        +1,790,000         +1,980,042        +1,358,761

Hmm.  First two columns from here, second two columns from here. Note those two data sources are not necessarily in sync.


Edit: and it looks like someone fixed the Wikipedia page with the Nov 7th numbers from UFL, now that everyone has made their scaregraph memes haha.

[UltraBudgie]

2024 Presidential Election:

Date      Eligible Voters   Ballots Counted    Democrat Votes    Republican Votes
Nov 7th       245,741,673       152,967,700        68,999,737          73,349,596
Nov 10th      244,666,890       154,757,700        70,979,779          74,708,357
Nov 11th      244,666,890       155,391,700        71,451,048          74,916,518
Change                  0           634,000           471,269             208,161

More votes trickle in, almost 70% of them for Harris.

[putnam6]

Updated nummers:

2024 Presidential Election:

Date      Eligible Voters   Ballots Counted    Democrat Votes    Republican Votes
Nov 7th   245,741,673       152,967,700        68,999,737        73,349,596
Nov 10th  244,666,890       154,757,700        70,979,779        74,708,357
Change    -1,074,783        +1,790,000         +1,980,042        +1,358,761

Hmm.  First two columns from here, second two columns from here. Note those two data sources are not necessarily in sync.


Edit: and it looks like someone fixed the Wikipedia page with the Nov 7th numbers from UFL, now that everyone has made their scaregraph memes haha.

Ha, it always upsets some people when I use Wikipedia...

I enjoyed this breakdown

60% of Democrats just voted against the opponent
79% total DECIDED before September

[UltraBudgie]

Update Nov 12th: Ms Harris continues to close the gap with Mr Trump, with more than 60% of the 1,361,643 additional votes counted since yesterday. Popular vote is now 51.06% Trump vs Harris, down almost half a percent since Nov 7th.


Hey, the WayBack machine has returned, and has snapshots of NYT's election coverage! Finally! So I'm going to stop doing this now, thank G_d.