The Iron Dome - 90% Accuracy BS

[Maxmars]

The Iron Dome might have one name... but it is many interlocked things.  Having one name for the whole system makes it easier to promote.

There's a lot of that perspective in many things "MIC."

[Lynyrd Skynyrd]

The Iron Dome might have one name... but it is many interlocked things.  Having one name for the whole system makes it easier to promote.

There's a lot of that perspective in many things "MIC."

There are 3 separate systems. Arrow is the name of the system that counters ballistic missiles.
https://www.axios.com/2024/10/02/israel-...ssiles-iai

[Maxmars]

There are 3 separate systems. Arrow is the name of the system that counters ballistic missiles.
https://www.axios.com/2024/10/02/israel-...ssiles-iai

I love it when you guys teach me.  Thanks... 

[Zaphod58]

So I came across this video of tons of bombs raining down on Tel Aviv tonight. Why do they say the iron dome is 90% accurate? In this video, it looks like it has about 10% accuracy, as bombs are reaching their targets. Please help this dummy understand. Make sure and watch the entire 4 minute video. It escalates as it progresses.

[Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALi80XzuBOk]

It's because of the way missile defense works. Iron Dome doesn't try to protect everything in Israel. Missile defense works by protecting specific areas, that are considered high value areas. If 100 missiles are fired, by only a few go towards where Iron Dome is protecting, and it stops 90% of them, then it has a 90% effectiveness. You can't protect an entire country with missile defense systems, so you protect what's most valuable. If Iron Dome sees 10 missiles coming towards it, and predicts that none of them are going to impact the area that it's protecting, it won't fire on them. On the other hand, if all 10 are predicted to impact in the area it's protecting, it's going to fire on all of them.

[Zaphod58]

WOW, That’s crazy, I had no idea it was that involved and required that much manpower.

A Patriot battery has about 90 personnel assigned to it, but only requires three to operate the radar and targeting systems.  The rest are to reload, drive, fuel, etc.

[Zaphod58]

I love it when you guys teach me.  Thanks... 

Missile and Air Defense systems are layered. Usually there's a long, a mid, and a short range system all working together. A US AD set up may have THAAD for exoatmospheric interceptions against ballistic missiles, a Patriot for mid range against things like Scud or Fattah, and Avenger for short range work. Or it may be Patriot, NASAMS, and Avenger or any combination. Whatever the long range systems don't engage, the others will, etc.

[Maxmars]

I'm just amazed they figured out how to make those systems interoperable.  That couldn't have been a small thing.

[Zaphod58]

I'm just amazed they figured out how to make those systems interoperable.  That couldn't have been a small thing.

You want impressive you should look into the National Missile Defense system. It ties in Aegis BMD, Ground Based Interceptors, THAAD, the Sea Based X band radar (a 384m2 antenna with 45,000 solid state t/r modules that can see 270 degrees and from 0-80 degrees elevation and out to 2500 miles) and can take input from sensors from things like E-2, E-3, and F-35s to add to the data it can see.