The Cajon Pass Hell Gate

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

Ahh, so it sounds like because of the age, these quakes in this area (gulf/Carribean) will only hit up to a certain magnitude? Or did I totally read something invisible that is not there? Apparantly there were two after shocks to to initial 6.1 .

If the conclusion is that they just cant get that big where I am at down here, then I  am satisfied with that.

Probably true for THAT weak point. 

But there are a few US Intraplate seismic zone that can top 7.0. The New Madrid and South Carolina. Memphis and Charleston are ALSO on a much less predictable ticking time bombs. 

But that is a failed rift, unlike the gulf. It is a massive scar where the continent tried to split apart.  So the Reel Foot Rift and Summerville Seismic Zone are the likely 7.0+ the Southeast could experience.  

But that's even harder to explain then the Gulf, because its even further from the boundary and the best explanations involve massive scars in the bottom of the crust and a fluid mantle compressing that weak point as the plate slides east to west.

[worldstarcountry]

So this Gulf incident, just a typical fart of the Earth, nothing to be too concerned for?? I just get concerned because all that lava and heat and pressure is still connected together deeper down. IS there any way whatever happened down here could in any way be a clue to the impending disaster you are referring to in the OP? Or if not by itself, what about as part of a wider pattern occurring in other locations which would have been just as surprised by an atypical very uncommon  magnitude of quake for their region?

It has been some time since I really took a deep interest in tectonics so I have not retained much of what I did learn and can barely remember anything outside of the basic introduction to it.

[fwki]

This is a blast from the past for me. I knew zip about SoCal earthquakes back in '94. At the time I worked for Chevron and spent 2 weeks at their La Habra research facility on a geological project immediately after the Northridge quake...got one helluva an education from geologist colleagues over beers and ad hoc field trips to faults and other features.  Many buildings at the facility sustained damage, but far less then some areas we scouted. By the time I left, I just knew the Big One was around the corner... after 30 years it's all kinda faded, so thanks for the memories OP!

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

So this Gulf incident, just a typical fart of the Earth, nothing to be too concerned for?? I just get concerned because all that lava and heat and pressure is still connected together deeper down.

Naw. Looking at data those happen every 30 to 50 years. 

The concernering things for East of the plains (outside Oklahoma and Texas) are land-based earthquakes, the distance shaking travels, and lack of seismic codes. 

The middle of the Gulf is nothing to worry about. A 6.0 somewhere in the Eastern US is. In the past 300 years, Cape Ann, MA has a 6.0 (1755), South Caolina had a 7.1 (1886), New Madrid had 4 over 7.0 in two years (1811-1812), Virginia had a 5.8 (2011).

And too many to name between 5.0-5.5 in that time. .

Since 1726, 39 of 50 US states have experienced a 4.5 or greater. And when the intraplate ones happen they are more IMPOSSIBLE to predict.

Mapping of ancient faults is on a backburner of greater hazards. And under North America are hundreds of millions of years of ancient faults EVERYWHERE on the continental slab for built up energy to release through. It is like a web of inactive rifting, orogeny, and weak points. But It doesnt mean the inactive cant temporarily become the path of least resistance, at any point.

[worldstarcountry]

IS there any way whatever happened down here could in any way be a clue to the impending disaster you are referring to in the OP? Or if not by itself, what about as part of a wider pattern occurring in other locations which would have been just as surprised by an atypical very uncommon  magnitude of quake for their region?

Oh dear, I think your hunch about that Cali faults, umm well it may just be preparing to come true?

"Heavy Casualties" After Massive Twin Quakes Rock Venezuela, Topple Buildings; "International Response May Be Needed"
Twin earthquakes rocked Venezuela on Wednesday evening, collapsing entire apartment buildings across Caracas and leaving behind scenes of widespread devastation.
The USGS said the first quake registered a magnitude of 7.1, with an epicenter near Morón, about 104 miles west of Caracas, at a depth of 8 miles. One minute later, a similarly massive magnitude 7.5 quake struck nearby, roughly 10 miles southwest of Morón, at a depth of 6 miles. Remarkably, the dual quake was followed almost immediately across the world by a 6.9 magnitude temblor in northern Japan, which rattled buildings in Tokyo.

you know bruh, sometimes this fucking damnit intuition of mine, sometimes it pisses me off. No wonder I spent  so much of my life numbing it. It may be time to stop sitting on our instincts and figure out  how to apply them towards some kind of immediate action, what  that  is as of yet I have no idea.

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

Oh dear, I think your hunch about that Cali faults, umm well it may just be preparing to come true?

you know bruh, sometimes this fucking damnit intuition of mine, sometimes it pisses me off. No wonder I spent  so much of my life numbing it. It may be time to stop sitting on our instincts and figure out  how to apply them towards some kind of immediate action, what  that  is as of yet I have no idea.

IDK... how good are your intuitions about these things really? Confirmation bias flaws that sometimes. :) 

I get where you are going though, there are almost like waves of 7s sometimes. The random clustering of data always has people looking at things like lunar phases to draw causation. The ring always seems to go in bursts. 

That's one of my favorite parts of data, the clusters of high and deserts of lulls finding their balance overall. 

I dont think it makes ours any more likely to happen, though. Maybe?

[worldstarcountry]

IDK... how good are your instincts about these things really? :) 

I get where you are going though, there are almost like waves of 7s sometimes. The random clustering of data always has people looking at things like lunar phases to draw causation. The ring always seems to go in bursts. 

That's one of my favorite parts of data, the clusters of high and deserts of lulls finding their balance overall. 

I dont think it makes ours any more likely to happen, though. Maybe?

well, hmmmm. What If I create a bet on polymarket about an massive Earthquake in California before July 31?? Would that be considered exploitative if it does occur? I mean, it is not as if anyone would actually listen to or believe us. But if we placed a bet and got paid on it, well that may force some people to ask questions.

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

Not as good a payout as you'd think...

Market ContractImplied Probability Cost per SharePayout per ($1.00 Risked)

World Megaquake by July 31: 12% $0.12 $8.33
LA 6.5+ Magnitude (by Dec 31): 4% $0.04 $25.00
CA 8.0+ Magnitude (by Dec 31): ~1% - 4% $0.01 - $0.04 $25.00 – $100.00

[worldstarcountry]

Not as good a payout as you'd think...

are the bigger payouts for if they actually happen?? How is 25 - 100 times payout on a cali quake not a big payout?? With a $500 bet, it could become $50,000.

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

I meant bet.  It would be a waste of $500 to bet on an 8.0 hitting by December, 31st in CA. 

But your intuition could prove me wrong if you have the money to risk.

An 8.0 is also really strong.  Fort Tejon and 1906 SF Quake were 7.9s.  

You'd probably get zonked if it happened. 

Preliminary would be 8.1 and they'd revise it down to 7.8 just to troll people. Or it could fall short and then be upgraded and payout instead. 

Also this is really detached considering how many Californians would be dead....

And now II have wasted far too much time on my internet phone today.