More than 50 countries have reached out to the President to begin tariff negotiations

[CriticalStinker]

On mobile, so I won’t be able to go line by line.

But if the reciprocal tariffs were based on trade imbalance. Some countries do have tariffs on the US, but others like the EU only have a 1% blanket (more for some industries).

The trade imbalance can’t always necessarily be “fixed” with a deal.

For instance, Canada is already the largest importer of US goods. But they’re a nation of 40m, far less than our 340m, and their economy is a fraction as well. They don’t accept American dairy for similar reasons of EU not wanting our meat. So can we reasonably expect a deal can be made to change that trade imbalance? And as you noted, RFK may change the food industry, but why didn’t we just start there, obviously the tariffs can’t force something if there is nothing to negotiate.

At the end of the day, there are very few serious economists or even politicians who agree with any of this. It seems chaotic and half baked without a true end goal. It was just ruffle the feathers and hope we get favorable outcomes once the dust settled.

Ultimately, we’ll be fine, even if things cost more for a while and they supply chain gets disrupted. I think the biggest concern to me is this wasn’t Trumps decision to make. Tariffs aren’t (typically) presidential power. He was able to do it first with the emergencies act over fentanyl, then claimed broader economic national emergency to tariff the whole planet. Whether or not you agree with why he did it, this opens the doors for others to do it. I obviously disagree with doing it to the whole planet all at once instead of thoughtfully targeting things/countries. This isn’t in my interest, it’s in corporate interests. Small businesses will have to do layoffs, make less money because consumers aren’t buying as much, or close shop.

This is after COVID where we saw the juggernauts consolidate power. This isn’t America first, it’s big donors first.

[putnam6]

On mobile, so I won’t be able to go line by line.

But if the reciprocal tariffs were based on trade imbalance. Some countries do have tariffs on the US, but others like the EU only have a 1% blanket (more for some industries).

The trade imbalance can’t always necessarily be “fixed” with a deal.

For instance, Canada is already the largest importer of US goods. But they’re a nation of 40m, far less than our 340m, and their economy is a fraction as well. They don’t accept American dairy for similar reasons of EU not wanting our meat. So can we reasonably expect a deal can be made to change that trade imbalance? And as you noted, RFK may change the food industry, but why didn’t we just start there, obviously the tariffs can’t force something if there is nothing to negotiate.

At the end of the day, there are very few serious economists or even politicians who agree with any of this. It seems chaotic and half baked without a true end goal. It was just ruffle the feathers and hope we get favorable outcomes once the dust settled.

Ultimately, we’ll be fine, even if things cost more for a while and they supply chain gets disrupted. I think the biggest concern to me is this wasn’t Trumps decision to make. Tariffs aren’t (typically) presidential power. He was able to do it first with the emergencies act over fentanyl, then claimed broader economic national emergency to tariff the whole planet. Whether or not you agree with why he did it, this opens the doors for others to do it. I obviously disagree with doing it to the whole planet all at once instead of thoughtfully targeting things/countries. This isn’t in my interest, it’s in corporate interests. Small businesses will have to do layoffs, make less money because consumers aren’t buying as much, or close shop.

This is after COVID where we saw the juggernauts consolidate power. This isn’t America first, it’s big donors first.

No worries, Im enjoying the discussion ... but


Nobody is suggesting Canada's trade "numbers" will be close, just that it needs to be adjusted in certain sectors. In my experience, it's significantly easier for a Canadian firm to operate in the US than vice versa. For example, shipping to and from Canada on single, time-sensitive items is expensive as hell, and setting up warehousing in the country is a regulatory nightmare, and you had better have a Canadian citizen you trust to grease the wheels. Even then, once an American company's item is warehoused in Canada, it's a hairy pain to ship it back to the customer in the US. Cost and time delay make it a rare occurrence, but Canadian firms shipping to the US face no such delays and a lot fewer procedures and paperwork. Additionally, Canadian firms can lease warehouse space and hire employees, and have a lot fewer hoops to jump through if they want to operate an American satellite warehouse. Even the smaller Canadian firms have warehouses right across the border in the US because of the savings and ease of shipping procedures 

Again, in my industry, but research indicates it's not the only sector that occurs...

https://x.com/i/grok/share/O9H4roJFI0nu0xVi0iryGBK3x
No U.S. industry is completely barred from operating in Canada, but banking, telecommunications, aviation, cultural industries, dairy, and cannabis face significant restrictions due to Canadian laws protecting economic, cultural, or strategic interests. U.S. companies can often navigate these through subsidiaries, partnerships, or compliance with regulations, but the barriers can limit their scope or competitiveness compared to domestic Canadian firms. For specific industries or companies, consulting local legal experts is advisable to ensure compliance.

We heard the same stuff when Trump wanted to redo NAFTA, it worked so well the Democrats didn't screw with it with Biden 

Respectfully, haven't we learned the "experts" have thier biases and can be propagandists instead of unbiased analysts.

I mean, unless you are getting your boosters?

[CriticalStinker]

No worries, Im enjoying the discussion ... but


Nobody is suggesting Canada's trade "numbers" will be close, just that it needs to be adjusted in certain sectors. In my experience, it's significantly easier for a Canadian firm to operate in the US than vice versa. For example, shipping to and from Canada on single, time-sensitive items is expensive as hell, and setting up warehousing in the country is a regulatory nightmare, and you had better have a Canadian citizen you trust to grease the wheels. Even then, once an American company's item is warehoused in Canada, it's a hairy pain to ship it back to the customer in the US. Cost and time delay make it a rare occurrence, but Canadian firms shipping to the US face no such delays and a lot fewer procedures and paperwork. Additionally, Canadian firms can lease warehouse space and hire employees, and have a lot fewer hoops to jump through if they want to operate an American satellite warehouse. Even the smaller Canadian firms have warehouses right across the border in the US because of the savings and ease of shipping procedures 

Again, in my industry, but research indicates it's not the only sector that occurs...

https://x.com/i/grok/share/O9H4roJFI0nu0xVi0iryGBK3x
No U.S. industry is completely barred from operating in Canada, but banking, telecommunications, aviation, cultural industries, dairy, and cannabis face significant restrictions due to Canadian laws protecting economic, cultural, or strategic interests. U.S. companies can often navigate these through subsidiaries, partnerships, or compliance with regulations, but the barriers can limit their scope or competitiveness compared to domestic Canadian firms. For specific industries or companies, consulting local legal experts is advisable to ensure compliance.

We heard the same stuff when Trump wanted to redo NAFTA, it worked so well the Democrats didn't screw with it with Biden 

Respectfully, haven't we learned the "experts" have thier biases and can be propagandists instead of unbiased analysts.

I mean, unless you are getting your boosters?

I think part of the reason a lot of this isn’t being received well is because a point you brought up. Trump renegotiated trade with Canada in his first term. So it’s odd that he’s acting like they’re ripping us off if he came up with that deal, and they’re the number one importer of our goods despite being only the 38th most populous country while we’re the third.

That, and no one in good faith can say what the tariffs are for. The admin even changes what the true driving motivation is for them weekly.

First it was fentanyl, then immigration, then to address the deficit.

I think many are getting a little confident that this is to get trade deals, so we can likely scratch off restoring business.

We have meeting with our clients about operations and goals as we build some of the critical parts of their data centers. Two are Fortune 500. If anything, they’ve put most moves on pause to figure out which way the wind is blowning. Some of our other customers are waiting to do projects in the US while continuing their projects in other countries.

It’s not just the economists that are reacting, we can see it with a lot of business decisions.


We will find out soon from the quarterly earnings reports though, along with other economic indicators. This should be pretty easy to measure the success of.

[putnam6]

I think part of the reason a lot of this isn’t being received well is because a point you brought up. Trump renegotiated trade with Canada in his first term. So it’s odd that he’s acting like they’re ripping us off if he came up with that deal, and they’re the number one importer of our goods despite being only the 38th most populous country while we’re the third.

That, and no one in good faith can say what the tariffs are for. The admin even changes what the true driving motivation is for them weekly.

First it was fentanyl, then immigration, then to address the deficit.

I think many are getting a little confident that this is to get trade deals, so we can likely scratch off restoring business.

We have meeting with our clients about operations and goals as we build some of the critical parts of their data centers. Two are Fortune 500. If anything, they’ve put most moves on pause to figure out which way the wind is blowning. Some of our other customers are waiting to do projects in the US while continuing their projects in other countries.

It’s not just the economists that are reacting, we can see it with a lot of business decisions.


We will find out soon from the quarterly earnings reports though, along with other economic indicators. This should be pretty easy to measure the success of.

Don't get me wrong Im aware its going to suck until this all gets resolved, I also have no doubt Textiles and Apparel sector is less significant than almost all other sectors involved in the US but in China apparel employs 16 million people, it might be sector they give some priority too. We've seen some clients move back their start ship dates 
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Small business owners fear losses as holiday orders stall over tariff costs.

Tariff uncertainty threatens Christmas for toymakers and retailers
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Still, a recession hits all sectors sooner or later. 

But generally, I feel like it's all overblown because it's Trump doing it. We both know 45% of the American voters, most of the MSM aren't going to agree with anything Trump does. Regardless

We have been in emergency mode since COVID. What's a few more months?

 Here's the link to China's list of American imports not subject to tariffs, aka they are negotiating, just as Ive been suggesting this whole thread. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/china-t...-1.7522535

 
China has created a list of U.S.-made products that would be exempted from its 125 per cent tariffs and is quietly notifying companies about the policy, two people familiar with the matter said, as Beijing seeks to ease the impact of its trade war with Washington.
China has already granted tariff exemptions on select products, including select pharmaceuticals, microchips and aircraft engines, and was asking firms to identify critical goods they need levy-free, Reuters reported last week. However, the existence of a "whitelist" had not been previously reported.
The quiet approach allows Beijing, which has repeatedly said it is willing to fight until the end unless the U.S. lifts its 145 per cent tariffs, to maintain its public messaging while privately taking practical steps to provide concessions.
It was not immediately clear how many and which products have been included on the list, which authorities have not shared publicly, the two sources said, declining to be named as the information was not public.
Companies instead are being privately contacted by authorities and notified of the existence of a list of product classifications that would be exempted from the tariffs, according to one of the sources who works at a drug company selling U.S.-made medicines in China.
 
The company was contacted by the Shanghai Pudong government on Monday about the list, the source said, adding the firm had previously lobbied for tariff exemptions as it relies on U.S. technologies for some of its products.

 
Another source said some companies have been asked to privately contact authorities to inquire if their own imported products qualify for the exemption.
The list of exempted products also appears to be growing: China has waived tariffs on ethane imports from the U.S., Reuters reported on Tuesday.
 Major ethane processors had already sought tariff waivers from Beijing because the U.S. is the only supplier.
 
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he thought a trade deal with China was on the horizon.
"But it's going to be a fair deal," he said.
 
China's commerce and customs ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

[CriticalStinker]

Don't get me wrong Im aware its going to suck until this all gets resolved, I also have no doubt Textiles and Apparel sector is less significant than almost all other sectors involved in the US but in China apparel employs 16 million people, it might be sector they give some priority too. We've seen some clients move back their start ship dates 
 Post


See new postsConversation[Image: https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/179...normal.jpg]
NewsNation

@NewsNation




Small business owners fear losses as holiday orders stall over tariff costs.
[Image: https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/191804578...name=small]
Tariff uncertainty threatens Christmas for toymakers and retailers
From newsnationnow.com
4:52 PM · May 1, 2025
·
1,577
Views

Still, a recession hits all sectors sooner or later. 

But generally, I feel like it's all overblown because it's Trump doing it. We both know 45% of the American voters, most of the MSM aren't going to agree with anything Trump does. Regardless

We have been in emergency mode since COVID. What's a few more months?

 Here's the link to China's list of American imports not subject to tariffs, aka they are negotiating, just as Ive been suggesting this whole thread. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/china-t...-1.7522535

I guess what it boils down to for me, is how will these deals benefit the average American.

It looks like the EU is presenting a 50b dollar deal, which is surprising to me because they didn’t have much they could negotiate on. But will 50b be a big windfall for the cost of the trade war to begin with? How many extra time did employees have to put towards requiring or figuring out the logistics of all of this. How much cost was absorbed by end users in America?

The ones who benefit will be the corporations privy to those trade deals.

And again, this wasn’t Trumps decision to make. Those emergency powers acts were intended for times when there is conflict or extraordinary circumstances. I can’t imagine congress put it into legislation thinking a president would impose tariffs on the whole planet. And even the justification was known to be just that. No one talks about the fentanyl anymore. No one is saying that has to be included in the deals.

It’s a bad precedent. And the thing about tariff policy, it shouldn’t be tied to a president, because presidents leave. So even if they stick around, the next admin might reverse them. These countries also can’t take the agreements seriously anymore considering many of them were penned by Trump himself.

I’ve talked to a lot of people about the tariff policy. The only constant is that there isn’t any. No one can explain what the end game is, or why we’re even doing it. A few weeks ago many were confident it was to make our debt cheaper by bringing down the stock market so bonds would go up. They dropped that narrative when the bond market slumped too.

At the end of the day, no one knows. It’s up to one man, instead of voting it through congress so many could delegate it.

[putnam6]

I guess what it boils down to for me, is how will these deals benefit the average American.

It looks like the EU is presenting a 50b dollar deal, which is surprising to me because they didn’t have much they could negotiate on. But will 50b be a big windfall for the cost of the trade war to begin with? How many extra time did employees have to put towards requiring or figuring out the logistics of all of this. How much cost was absorbed by end users in America?

The ones who benefit will be the corporations privy to those trade deals.

And again, this wasn’t Trumps decision to make. Those emergency powers acts were intended for times when there is conflict or extraordinary circumstances. I can’t imagine congress put it into legislation thinking a president would impose tariffs on the whole planet. And even the justification was known to be just that. No one talks about the fentanyl anymore. No one is saying that has to be included in the deals.

It’s a bad precedent. And the thing about tariff policy, it shouldn’t be tied to a president, because presidents leave. So even if they stick around, the next admin might reverse them. These countries also can’t take the agreements seriously anymore considering many of them were penned by Trump himself.

I’ve talked to a lot of people about the tariff policy. The only constant is that there isn’t any. No one can explain what the end game is, or why we’re even doing it. A few weeks ago many were confident it was to make our debt cheaper by bringing down the stock market so bonds would go up. They dropped that narrative when the bond market slumped too.

At the end of the day, no one knows. It’s up to one man, instead of voting it through congress so many could delegate it.

Well, I have an answer for that too: Congress can act, but they will need Republican support, you know, like a democracy

Congress has the constitutional and legislative tools to stop Trump’s tariffs by passing new laws, terminating the national emergency, or blocking specific tariffs. However, Republican loyalty to Trump, the need for a veto-proof majority, and procedural hurdles in the House make it unlikely without significant economic or political pressure. Bipartisan bills like the Trade Review Act show some momentum, but they face steep odds of passing or surviving a veto


LOL by mid June I'll freak out with you, I can be patient till then. 

You mean a politician oversold the ease and /or effectiveness of their grand plan? 
I don't know anything at all, but I am in the "Let him Cook" crowd, for now. 

[Image: https://media0.giphy.com/media/u99CUapym.../giphy.gif]

[CriticalStinker]

Well, I have an answer for that too: Congress can act, but they will need Republican support, you know, like a democracy

Than why don’t they do that? It’s the proper way.

[putnam6]

Than why don’t they do that? It’s the proper way.

It's doubtful enough Republicans will join the Democrats, because enough of thier constituents support Trump, especially the ones up for re-election.

It happens all the time, it's why TPTB wrestle for control of Congress. The 2026 midterms are shaping policy, and some Republicans want Trump to pull back on tariffs, as some are afraid it hurts their chances in 2026

American politics as usual, getting reelected, supercedes any other responsibilities.

https://www.newsweek.com/biggest-politic...pe-2065299

 
There are 33 U.S. Senate seats up for regular election in 2026—13 Democratic-held seats and 20 Republican-held seats, according to information from Ballotpedia.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has identified 35 Republican-held districts it is targeting for the 2026 midterms, while Democrats face the challenge of holding 13 districts that President Donald Trump won in 2024.
Only three House Republicans represent districts that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris carried in 2024.
Trump's disapproval rating is at 43 percent—a similar level to November 2018, when Republicans lost the House, according to CNN pollster Harry Enten. Republicans won two Florida special elections in April, though the narrow margins could raise concerns within the party about waning support in some areas.

LOL, this was one of the loopholes companies used in the apparel industry. A client told us they received a 15,000 stock order separated into 18 shipments totaling $800 or less. 

The problem only the little piss ant apparel firms in China do this, not sure this creates a lot of pressure Xi or not? 
 Trump ends China’s de minimis tariff exemption on low-value packages

• De minimis loophole exempts packages under $800 from duties
  
• Trump says the rule allowed opioids to flow in from China
  
• House Democrats tried to end the exemption last fall
  

(NewsNation) — A special exemption that prevented tariffs from being imposed on low-value packages from China expired overnight Friday.Until Friday, the de minimis exemption allowed packages under $800 to come into the United States, mostly from China, duty-free. President Donald Trump called the loophole “a big scam.”
The exemption’s end is expected to raise prices and delay delivery times for millions of packages daily.
The rule was created because sometimes processing a tariff fee on those small packages would cost more than the package itself.
Budget retailers Shein and Temu raise prices amid Trump tariffs But as trading tensions have grown between Trump and China, the president has decided to do away with the exemption altogether.
Last month, he signed an executive order eliminating the duty-free treatment for Chinese packages. The order claims opioids like fentanyl, or the ingredients to make it, enter the U.S. through this exemption.

[xuenchen]

Must be all the backdoor talking. They talk suggestively back and forth and they try different things (aka pre-official negotiations for positioning)


 Tough-Talking China Could Be Opening the Door to Tariff Talks

 
China may be warming to the possibility of holding talks with the U.S. on tariffs, following a statement from the Chinese Commerce Ministry on Friday.
 
“The U.S. has recently taken the initiative on many occasions to convey information to China through relevant parties, saying it hopes to talk with China,” the ministry statement translated by Reuters said, adding that Beijing was “evaluating this.”
 
What observers are calling a “shift in tone” may present an off ramp for the world’s two largest economies to avoid an ongoing trade war that has impacted markets worldwide.
 
However, the ministry also warned that “attempting to use talks as a pretext to engage in coercion and extortion would not work.”
 

BBG: China Quietly Exempts About a Quarter of U.S. Imports from Tariffs

[putnam6]

Ben Werschkul · Washington Correspondent
Updated Fri, May 2, 2025 at 12:08 PM EDT 4 min read
President Trump's tariffs became very real for importers last month as the government collected more than $17.4 billion in "Customs and Certain Excise Taxes" during April.
That was nearly double March's haul of $9.6 billion, dwarfing the smaller spikes in revenue seen during Trump's first term.

All told, the duties have deposited more than $70 billion into government coffers since Jan. 1.
"As Billions of Dollars pour in from Tariffs ... we’re only in a TRANSITION STAGE, just getting started!!!" Trump said on Truth Social Friday.
He could be right. April's data will perhaps provide only a glimpse of what's coming. The biggest tariffs — 10% duties on nearly every country in the world — took effect on April 5, with plenty of additional tariffs promised for the months ahead.




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JUST IN - Temu halts shipping direct from China as de minimis tariff loophole is cut off — CNBC


 JUST IN: TEMU has announced they will begin sourcing and shipping products directly from the United States instead of China due to Trump’s tariffs The company has announced they do NOT expect to raise prices. This was President Trump’s goal, and he’s meeting it!