More Babies Needed to Avoid Extinction

[FlyersFan]

According to a recent study, the birth rate in the world is dropping and people need to have 2.7 babies in order to replace themselves instead of the 2.1 previously thought.  If the birth rate doesn't rise, humans could go extinct.

I say ... hogwash.  The world is overpopulated and we are depleting resources.   Educated and healthy people are not having children whereas the poor and sickly and hungry ARE having children.

Read up and see what you think.  I think this is hogwash.  I think that if people don't start to have less children then they will go extinct from lack of resources .. not the other way around.

NEWSWEEK

Researchers in a new study published in the journal PLOS One argue the classic "replacement level" fertility rate of 2.1 children—the number needed to replace parents from one generation to the next—is insufficient, and that we actually need closer to 2.7 kids just to avoid eventually dying out.
 
The authors wrote that the previously accepted rate of 2.1 children per woman doesn't fully account for the unpredictable nature of life, especially in smaller populations.
 
This chance element becomes crucial when looking at long-term survival, according to the study. Using mathematical models, they found the real threshold to safely steer clear of extinction is quite a bit higher than previously thought.

"The results indicate that the fertility rate should exceed 2.7 to avoid extinction," the study states. This finding casts doubt on the safety net provided by the 2.1 figure, particularly as global birth rates continue to fall. Currently, about two-thirds of the world's population lives in areas with fertility rates below the traditional 2.1 replacement level

[Maxmars]

Rather than sound an alarm, I wish they would acknowledge that overpopulation was NEVER a real problem;

Human population numbers manifest cyclically... we are about to find out what happens when the pendulum swings the other way.

Are we ready?  Of course not.

Could we ever have been ready for what is t come?... only under a different non-exploitation/profit-taking model... (never gonna happen today.)

[schuyler]

Next we'll hear we're running out of oxygen because too many people are breathing. Humanity is not going extinct any time soon. The standard of living might change, but that's a different question.

[TzarChasm]

Elon says the entire population can comfortably reside in New York, I assume he means the state and I assume he means row upon row of cozy bee hives because you have to put four families in a home to fit that many bodies and that means apartments not proper houses. And that's what they want, 3 kids per couple to double the 330 million in the next 30 years. More kids, more able bodies for labor and consumption. If we're bringing industry back to the US then we lay the seeds for that future now. I'm not saying it's the best reason or even a decent reason to have babies. Personally I think it's crazy to give a baby to some folks, some of these parents have no business raising a child, and that generational breakdown in both intellect and parenting ethics is probably a major contributing factor in the decline.

[ReturnofBroccoli]

I think people ignoring the census form completely is the cause of the decline, if there is one. How many people actually fill those out? I don't know anywhere else they could be getting their statistics besides maybe the department of vital statistics birth and death records but what about all the stolen identities.... meh, also what country is this in or is this a world issue we are talking about? I'm inclined to agree with flyersfan on this though I too say hogwash

[UltraBudgie]

I think people ignoring the census form completely is the cause of the decline, if there is one. How many people actually fill those out? I don't know anywhere else they could be getting their statistics besides maybe the department of vital statistics birth and death records but what about all the stolen identities.... meh, also what country is this in or is this a world issue we are talking about? I'm inclined to agree with flyersfan on this though I too say hogwash

if you fill it out, that's like saying you agree to the idea that those fscks in congress represent you. its as bad as voting. avoid.

[ReturnofBroccoli]

I don't fill it out lol and they don't represent us because if they did lobbying wouldn't be a thing

[Anna]

An idiotic pseudo-study by idiotic pseudo-experts. Human population always fluctuated. The Black Death pandemic in Middle Ages killed off one third of the whole world population, nearly 50% of people in Europe died. And what? Did humanity go extinct? No. In the past, women used to have more children but only half of kids reached adolescence. Many newborn died in infancy. Now women have less children but, due to the progress of medicine and better living conditions, the mortality rate among babies is much lower.

While fertility in developed countries is declining,  Africa and some countries in Asia still have very high birth rates.

Not to mention that a few years ago a bunch of other pseudo-experts claimed that there are too many of us and the whole planet is in danger.

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

The population will be fine..

It may shift more to the countries that breed the most though. Tokyo is the largest Metro Area today, but in 2050 it will be behind; Mumbai, Delhi, Dhaka, Kinshasa, Calcutta, and Lagos!

Births per mother, as mentioned, go by level of development and per capita income.

2025 Data:

Low Income countries: 4.38
Lower Middle income countries: 2.84
Middle income countries: 2.09
Upper middle income countries: 1.48
High Income countries: 1.47

If they want higher birth rates they should keep the world from developing financially, or gentrifying into urban places with more dog amenities than child amenities.