Future of the Smartphone

[LogicalGraffiti]

It’s hard to believe that the iPhone was release way back in 2007!  When it came out, it truly was a revolution in terms of technology and a considerable gamble by Apple.  At the time, companies like Nokia, Blackberry and Motorola were the leaders and their devices were, first and foremost, mobile telephones.  What made them more than phones was the ability to send SMS messages and a few even had some rudimentary applications.

Along comes the iPhone.  From its inception, it was a handheld computer.  On top of that, it could make phone calls.  It came with a big (in comparison) screen.  It had a color screen and had a touch keyboard with all the letters, numbers and symbols available.  At last, it was possible to type words without having to tap the ‘1’ key three times just to generate the letter ‘C’.  What a concept!

17 years later, the iPhone and Android are virtually unchanged fundamentally.  Yes, they're much improved and the hardware has evolved by leaps and bounds but it's still basically the same thing.  It makes me wonder if we can expect another revolution and what would that would look like.  Will the smartphone, as we know it, continue for another 10 years or is there something fantastic on the horizon?  Maybe it will be AI at its core.  You won't have to consult your phone, it will advise you as you go through your day!

Here's a thought, I was in a very long TSA line last week where most people had their heads down looking at their phones as they shuffled along for 20 minutes just to finally end up in front of an agent and show their credentials – using their phone!  Imagine no lines at all and your device interacts with TSA as you enter the airport.  The device will let you know you've been cleared and you walk straight to the screening queue.  Scary concept but that’s usually what comes with revolutions.

I’d like to hear what you think could be the next “big thing”,

[VulcanWerks]

I think that the expanse kind of nailed it.

A device that serves as everything from a communications too, to ID, to a means of payment, etc. We already have that though, largely.

My thought as a guy who doesn’t claim to be a futurist:

We have hit peak smart phone. They only get slimmer/more futuristic looking/etc. But, once your AI assistant is fully integrated that’s the apex. It doesn’t need to be more than that.

I think Apple is right that one part of the future is AR or AI powered AR. But that will bring with it many legal challenges and I don’t see everyone adopting that kind of tech at scale.

My curiosity is… what’s the next device in general? We have phones, computers, lap tops, game consoles, smart watches, fitness trackers, tablets… what’s the next hardware? I can’t point to it.

Tech’s going to have a hard time as people seek to become less plugged in. So the future tech may be robotics or other “convenience” tech that is intended to actually eliminate the need for your to interact with it. Laundry folding, floor cleaning, lawn mowing robots come to mind for me as an example - the mechanization of menial/repetitive tasks in daily life.

[Rainmaker]

I think VulcanWerks brings some excellent points above.

The thread title and my memories of being issued a BlackBerry for work made me think of a (now-funny) incident…

Circa 2001, one of my dad’s colleagues (they were doctors at a prestigious hospital) was issued some sort of phone that had internet capability. I think it predates any “smart phone” and was a fancy older type phone with some sort of browser on it.

As a hobby, I was strongly into buying auction cars and reselling them after a few repairs. I figured a device that would help me do research on cars and parts on the spot in the auction yard would be worth the investment.

I went to Best Buy, which had the best selection of consumer electronics at the time in my area. I was laughed at because I mentioned the concept of the average person someday having the ability to purchase a mobile device that could access the internet. 

Similar to when I showed up at a ski resort in 1987 with a snowboard I had saved and saved to purchase. Nobody else I knew had one and it literally drew a crowd as I walked through the parking lot of the ski resort with my friend and his mom.

I was told “the same criminal punks who ride skateboards in the summer are the ones who buy snowboards! You and your mischievous friends are not and will never be welcome here! We will never allow snowboarding on this mountain!” 

Roughly ten years later half of their business was snowboarding!

[schuyler]

Step 1: Merge the wallet and the smart phone. A wallet contains money, cards of all sorts, memberships, licenses, etc. They can all be transferred to the smart phone. There's no reason to carry around a physical wallet.

Step 2: Implant. 

Yes, there are hurdles, both technical, bureaucratic, and even moral issues such as privacy and security, but it will happen eventually and within our lifetimes. (Yours anyway. Not mine as I'm too old.)

[VulcanWerks]

Step 1: Merge the wallet and the smart phone. A wallet contains money, cards of all sorts, memberships, licenses, etc. They can all be transferred to the smart phone. There's no reason to carry around a physical wallet.

Step 2: Implant. 

Yes, there are hurdles, both technical, bureaucratic, and even moral issues such as privacy and security, but it will happen eventually and within our lifetimes. (Yours anyway. Not mine as I'm too old.)

To the first point, I already do that. All cards linked to wallet now. I started with one card to see how it went and honestly it’s infinitely more convenient and far more secure. You’d have to know my phone pass code and use facial recognition to get into my wallet. No losing cash, credit cards, etc. And if someone did get my phone I can just remote disable it.

Insurance cards are digital, too. People have concerns about privacy but privacy is an illusion. “They” identify people from birth and through their existence. If tptb want to find something out about me they already did.

I can conduct basically all of my personal business on my phone. Only thing that isn’t on there is a digital ID.

Now for biometrics/implants? I think we’ll see eye/palm scanning before chips get implanted at scale. I also question how secure that tech would be for payment - as an example. I already use Clear at the airport and have my facial recognition to log onto/validate identity on .gov sites. That seems reasonable. I just think palm scanning at scale has a lot of potential issues and would usher in a whole new set of concerns around “identity theft”.

Multi-factor authorization might get you around some of that but I still see potential issues.

I don’t have an issue with my phone/Clear/.gov having these scans of me. Again, if some nefarious actor or government wants that information they’ll get it with or without my consent. I also don’t really take that personally at all and frankly that kind of thing has been happening for a LONG time. I don’t plan on being a criminal so I see no issue with self-selected transparency.

Honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s a future where those who try and bypass technology are viewed negatively. It will be “anti-government” or criminals only. While many people who are “anti-government” certainly aren’t criminals they’ll be lumped into that bucket. Or at least, I could see that happening.

Lastly, this all plays into the “Social Credit Score” concerns. What I think is funny is that you already more-less have one and to think you don’t is kind of naive.

So, bank with JPM, use AMEX, put your various biomarkers into the database and carry on.

Many will disagree with me and that’s fine but you’re not just gaining efficiency/convenience with this path - you are also gaining various amounts of security, too because everyone else has to use it… including the bad actors.

[LogicalGraffiti]

I think Apple is right that one part of the future is AR or AI powered AR...

My curiosity is… what’s the next device in general? We have phones, computers, lap tops, game consoles, smart watches, fitness trackers, tablets… what’s the next hardware? I can’t point to it.

I agree, Apple's Apple Vision, being AR, is probably a taste of what's to come.  I wouldn't be surprised if they introduce something later this year that will make the iPhone old tech.

The thread title and my memories of being issued a BlackBerry for work made me think of a (now-funny) incident

Remember Nextel?  The company I worked for issued those in the mid-90's.  It was a pretty annoying device though.  I'd be in a restaurant and get that beep.  It was like using a walkie talkie and you had to excuse yourself so you didn't bother everyone with a 2 way conversation.  There was always someone though that didn't care and carried on for everyone to hear.  We've come a long way.

---

Step 2: Implant. 

Yes, there are hurdles, both technical, bureaucratic, and even moral issues such as privacy and security, but it will happen eventually and within our lifetimes. (Yours anyway. Not mine as I'm too old.)

There was a time in my life when I would have been first in line to get an implant.  Not so much anymore.  Wouldn't it be cool if at birth, they implant the content of the entire Internet on a chip?  School would only be used to teach behavior and etiquette.  Something that seems to be taught less and less these days.

[schuyler]

Not so much anymore.  Wouldn't it be cool if at birth, they implant the content of the entire Internet on a chip?  

You already get a social security number at birth. That's been the case for some time. I remember I got one for my kid and she's now over forty. If you chipped the SS # and stuck the actual data in the cloud, you'd be half way there. I say half way because the other half is interacting, and for that you need some sort of screen/keyboard equivalent interface. I don't think that issue is insurmountable, but it's also fair to say we aren't there yet.

[LogicalGraffiti]

You already get a social security number at birth. That's been the case for some time. I remember I got one for my kid and she's now over forty. If you chipped the SS # and stuck the actual data in the cloud, you'd be half way there. I say half way because the other half is interacting, and for that you need some sort of screen/keyboard equivalent interface. I don't think that issue is insurmountable, but it's also fair to say we aren't there yet.

The interface could be some kind of neural network in the human body.  Don't type it, just think it  . Now that's a scary concept.

[putnam6]

Cool thread 

It's inevitable and FWIW it probably will be part of humanity's next step in advancing on its evolutionary arc. Whatever saves us time opens up working in another area we usually didn't have time get to.

It's no different than how refrigeration, changes how food is grown and distributed. I remember talking with my grandmother about the Depression era, and she said her mom and her female children spent most of the day preparing meals, washing clothes, and organizing. Every day except, Sunday morning, Church was a respite, but then back home for whatever you could put together for a Sunday dinner. Sometimes just beans and cornbread, but even that was an all-day event.

[VulcanWerks]

Cool thread 

It's inevitable and FWIW it probably will be part of humanity's next step in advancing on its evolutionary arc. Whatever saves us time opens up working in another area we usually didn't have time get to.

It's no different than how refrigeration, changes how food is grown and distributed. I remember talking with my grandmother about the Depression era, and she said her mom and her female children spent most of the day preparing meals, washing clothes, and organizing. Every day except, Sunday morning, Church was a respite, but then back home for whatever you could put together for a Sunday dinner. Sometimes just beans and cornbread, but even that was an all-day event.

It’s amazing how far the apex of human productivity has come since it took all day to prepare dinner.