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(05-18-2026, 03:36 PM)Byrd Wrote: They killed off the ship crews before they hit the New World.
It was a 2 month voyage to the Americas, if the winds were right...
No ship captain was going to take anyone aboard who had obvious signs of disease.
Then how did it happen? Smallpox reached the new world somehow.
Visitors could have brought trade goods or supplies which inadvertently had a smallpox-tained scab which had been shed by a sufferer in the old world.
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(05-18-2026, 04:42 PM)SteamyAmerican Wrote: Lol. “My speculations”. And “ask AI”. Damn this site has fallen off.
I was talking about rats, fleas, mosquitos etc.
But thanks for the assumptions.
I wasn't assuming.
I worked in an epidemiology lab. I have some understanding of vectors and disease patterns (and am co-author on a study of a particular disease cluster as well as doing door-to-door canvassing on West Nile Virus for another study (was not credited as coauthor because I was one of the grad student grunts collecting data.)
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(05-18-2026, 10:50 PM)Solvedit Wrote: Then how did it happen? Smallpox reached the new world somehow.
Visitors could have brought trade goods or supplies which inadvertently had a smallpox-tained scab which had been shed by a sufferer in the old world.
It did, indeed, but not by people who were showing symptoms being taken across the ocean.
A very very few people are immune to smallpox (oddly enough, I'm one of them. I had multiple smallpox vaccines and never formed the scars, which indicated to them that I have immunity.) They can carry the disease, but in those days they'd have never known about that. A carrier could have boarded a ship, but the crew would start coming down with smallpox within 2-3 weeks and given the impact of the disease on a group of people who weren't being given the best food or medical care, up to 1/3 of the ship's crew could die by the time they reached land.
Depending on how long the voyage took (and it takes a lot longer if a lot of your crew is sick or dead), the shipboard outbreak could be completely over by the time they hit the new world.
A ship that showed up with smallpox would not be allowed to land at any port.
In warm climates, the "lifespan" of the virus is much shorter on clothing and blankets ( https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2538235/), which is why it was easier to bring across from England and north Europe.
While the smallpox blankets (which weren't very successful, by the way) did cause some outbreaks, they were obtained from people in the colonies and not from people newly entering the country.
The goods would have to be cloth, though -- and cloth that wasn't washed. It doesn't do well on other surfaces.
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05-22-2026, 08:19 PM
This post was last modified: 05-22-2026, 08:49 PM by Solvedit. 
(05-22-2026, 07:44 PM)Byrd Wrote: It did, indeed, but not by people who were showing symptoms being taken across the ocean.
A very very few people are immune to smallpox (oddly enough, I'm one of them. I had multiple smallpox vaccines and never formed the scars, which indicated to them that I have immunity.) They can carry the disease, but in those days they'd have never known about that. It is not impossible that an entire crew had been involved in transporting cows. Cowpox infection is much less harmful than smallpox but confers immunity to smallpox.
Quote:A carrier could have boarded a ship, but the crew would start coming down with smallpox within 2-3 weeks and given the impact of the disease on a group of people who weren't being given the best food or medical care, up to 1/3 of the ship's crew could die by the time they reached land.
Depending on how long the voyage took (and it takes a lot longer if a lot of your crew is sick or dead), the shipboard outbreak could be completely over by the time they hit the new world.
A ship that showed up with smallpox would not be allowed to land at any port. Suppose, in their desperation, they just kept sailing or rowing west and reached the new world? Suppose they hadn't given the ship a proper cleaning because they lacked the manpower or a captain to make them, or simply didn't know how thoroughly they had to clean in order to render the ship safe?
Quote:In warm climates, the "lifespan" of the virus is much shorter on clothing and blankets (https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2538235/), which is why it was easier to bring across from England and north Europe.
While the smallpox blankets (which weren't very successful, by the way) did cause some outbreaks, they were obtained from people in the colonies and not from people newly entering the country. The smallpox blankets may have been quite successful if the plan was to set aside the land west of the middle of the Appalachians and east of the Mississippi as an indian reserve, then conduct a genocide and let the place fill up with the king's men, who proceeded to go native while it suited them.
Quote:The goods would have to be cloth, though -- and cloth that wasn't washed. It doesn't do well on other surfaces. So how did smallpox get there?
Is there no place smallpox could linger in the damp hold of a ship? Perhaps in the ballast or spare rope or simply the hard-to-clean corners below deck?
The epidemic could have been deliberate, but it could have been brought by pirates because they didn't have armies to call on if they wanted to commandeer the new world.
Spanish explorers may have not met with modern approval but still stopped short of genocide, plus it wouldn't look good diplomatically if they started practicing germ warfare. It may lead to suspicion and retaliation. They might have been slightly more responsible than pirates.
It is possible that they saw the need to rush in and commandeer the new world before pirates took it.
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(05-22-2026, 08:19 PM)Solvedit Wrote: It is not impossible that an entire crew had been involved in transporting cows. Cowpox infection is much less harmful than smallpox but confers immunity to smallpox.
Suppose, in their desperation, they just kept sailing or rowing west and reached the new world? Suppose they hadn't given the ship a proper cleaning because they lacked the manpower or a captain to make them, or simply didn't know how thoroughly they had to clean in order to render the ship safe?
The smallpox blankets may have been quite successful if the plan was to set aside the land west of the middle of the Appalachians and east of the Mississippi as an indian reserve, then conduct a genocide and let the place fill up with the king's men, who proceeded to go native while it suited them.
So how did smallpox get there?
Again, anyone with smallpox would have infected the entire crew within a fairly short time (within a few days.) I've been on a sailing ship (The Elissa, in Galveston as well as some in Boston harbor) and it's really smaller than you might think. Everyone is in contact with everyone else. By the time they started recognizing that the ship had smallpox, everyone would have been exposed. The cook and whoever functioned as ship's doctor would be at highest risk.
Short handed ships have trouble when they hit emergencies that require a lot of repositioning of sails, even with experienced hands.
Interestingly enough, influenza was the first epidemic to hit the Americas (island of Hispanola, brought by Columbus and 2,000 Spanish immigrants. Within 8 years, 2/3 of the native population was dead. Jamestown settlers brought the deadly malaria.
Europeans brought a whole laundry list of diseases that hit native populations hard, including typhus, typhoid fever, malaria, cowpox, measles, sexually transmitted diseases, and more. Europeans were fairly resistant to these since these illnesses had been present in Europe and Asia for thousands of years (so the people having kids were those whose immune systems could better fight off these germs.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_Ame..._epidemics
(05-22-2026, 08:19 PM)Solvedit Wrote: Is there no place smallpox could linger in the damp hold of a ship? Perhaps in the ballast or spare rope or simply the hard-to-clean corners below deck?
The epidemic could have been deliberate, but it could have been brought by pirates because they didn't have armies to call on if they wanted to commandeer the new world.
Spanish explorers may have not met with modern approval but still stopped short of genocide, plus it wouldn't look good diplomatically if they started practicing germ warfare. It may lead to suspicion and retaliation. They might have been slightly more responsible than pirates.
It is possible that they saw the need to rush in and commandeer the new world before pirates took it.
There weren't that many pirates around (except in the Caribbean...and even there they were outnumbered by the Spanish.) Pirates weren't interested in acquiring land -- unlike the common settler. And while pirate ships had crews of 30-100 hands, boats were bringing in settlers by the thousands.
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Smallpox was no ones fault. Just a shitty thing that happened.
Yes Europeans brought it over. But the virus was always going to find its away to north America. The America continent was never going to remain isolated , colonislim or not. Even if the native Americans had thrived and built their own nation and remained independent , eventually they would of come in contact with Europe and the disease would of spread.
Sucks but that's just the nature of endemic viruses. Until the smallpox vaccine came along and could be put into wide spread production, there was no stopping smallpox anymore than you could stop the common cold.
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05-23-2026, 02:33 PM
This post was last modified: 05-23-2026, 02:48 PM by Solvedit. 
(05-23-2026, 12:41 PM)Byrd Wrote: Again, anyone with smallpox would have infected the entire crew within a fairly short time (within a few days.) I've been on a sailing ship (The Elissa, in Galveston as well as some in Boston harbor) and it's really smaller than you might think. Everyone is in contact with everyone else. By the time they started recognizing that the ship had smallpox, everyone would have been exposed. The cook and whoever functioned as ship's doctor would be at highest risk.
Short handed ships have trouble when they hit emergencies that require a lot of repositioning of sails, even with experienced hands. Then how did smallpox get there? You tell us.
Why couldn't it have been brought by a crew of sailors who had been exposed to cowpox?
Cowpox infection confers immunity to smallpox.
Quote:Interestingly enough, influenza was the first epidemic to hit the Americas (island of Hispanola, brought by Columbus and 2,000 Spanish immigrants. Within 8 years, 2/3 of the native population was dead. Jamestown settlers brought the deadly malaria. It may be the first known epidemic recorded in European history books but it need not have been the first epidemic.
There could have been knowledge of the new world among Vikings and a few elites, then when they found out someone had infected the natives with an epidemic, they knew they'd better swoop in and secure the place before pirates took it.
Quote:Europeans brought a whole laundry list of diseases that hit native populations hard, including typhus, typhoid fever, malaria, cowpox, measles, sexually transmitted diseases, and more. Europeans were fairly resistant to these since these illnesses had been present in Europe and Asia for thousands of years (so the people having kids were those whose immune systems could better fight off these germs.) But we don't know which one was the first. We only know which one was recorded first by explorers who were not practicing secrecy.
Quote:There weren't that many pirates around (except in the Caribbean...and even there they were outnumbered by the Spanish.) Pirates weren't interested in acquiring land -- unlike the common settler. You mean like Vikings weren't interested in land?
Why, why, why would people with no place to go not be interested in land and a place to hide out? They could still go roving when they needed to.
There were probably also people in Europe who had too little room, who might have risked striking out on their own.
Quote:And while pirate ships had crews of 30-100 hands, boats were bringing in settlers by the thousands. The pirates you speak of were already in the new world.
There were pirates in the old world before as well as after the discovery of the new world. They may have known someone who knew someone who knew a Viking who knew of the new world.
Boats did eventually start bringing in settlers by the thousands but St. Augustine was only established 73 years after Columbus. Jamestown was only established 115 years after Columbus. How long after their founding did Spain or England control all the land or all the coastline of eastern North America in a way that would rule out unofficial settlers?
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(05-23-2026, 02:33 PM)Solvedit Wrote: Then how did smallpox get there? You tell us.
....
There could have been knowledge of the new world among Vikings and a few elites, then when they found out someone had infected the natives with an epidemic, they knew they'd better swoop in and secure the place before pirates took it.
But we don't know which one was the first. We only know which one was recorded first by explorers who were not practicing secrecy.
You mean like Vikings weren't interested in land?
Why, why, why would people with no place to go not be interested in land and a place to hide out? They could still go roving when they needed to.
There were probably also people in Europe who had too little room, who might have risked striking out on their own.
The pirates you speak of were already in the new world.
There were pirates in the old world before as well as after the discovery of the new world. They may have known someone who knew someone who knew a Viking who knew of the new world.
Boats did eventually start bringing in settlers by the thousands but St. Augustine was only established 73 years after Columbus. Jamestown was only established 115 years after Columbus. How long after their founding did Spain or England control all the land or all the coastline of eastern North America in a way that would rule out unofficial settlers?
Actually, we DO know when smallpox first appeared in the US. 1600's, in Jamestown, etc, brought by sailors and spread in the colonies... and outward from there. https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/about/history.html
It was able to spread because the disease survived longer in the northern climates (northern route). Again, well documented. In the 1500's, it ravaged the Caribbean, but did not reach the mainland.
Vikings settled in Newfoundland (Canada) about 900-1100 AD, and then left without establishing a truly permanent settlement. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%27Anse_aux_Meadows By 1150 AD there were no more Vikings ( https://scandinaviafacts.com/why-did-the...s-die-out/ ) due to the influence of Christianity (the main target of Vikings were Christian religious settlements... because that's where the gold was) and the rise of King Harold Godwinson and the formation of Sweden-Denmark-Norway.
So that's several hundred years before Columbus.
The earliest navigational charts to get to the New World were made in the 1500's, and not by Vikings.
St Augustine (honestly, you could look this up) was pretty much considered a backwater ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Florida) and was a fairly dangerous place to wander through (actually, almost all of the coastal US in the south was a challenge, with insects, crocodiles, panthers, and bears (the bears were actually a real threat in Florida as late as the early 1900's -- so much so that Houses of Refuge for shipwrecked sailors on the Atlantic coast worked hard to get rid of them)) and the coast is a real challenge (the "Treasure Coast" gets its name because so many ships were wrecked there trying to reach land.) Malaria came in during the 1600's from infected African slaves. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_Ame..._epidemics
Smallpox came into North America via French and English settlers. It took hold in the Native American population of North America in the 1600's: https://classroom.synonym.com/deaths-cau...16655.html and https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/...th-century
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(04-14-2026, 03:59 AM)Creaky Wrote: You could say the same about Australian natives but it’s not politically correct.
Same set up globally for everyone they can fool
Well, they were natives, not humans!
Otherwise it would have been a lie declaring it "Terra Nullius"...
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