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Russia has denied it has targeted Poland, If true it might be a false flag. Either way tensions seem to be rising. You have a US general in charge of NATO, the US is essential to a war in Europe so If it kicks off the Russians will have to try to remove the factories manufacturing munitions. I would still be watching for Russians diplomats being recalled to Moscow before any serious stuff starts. Russia will want a formal declaration of war before it strikes hostile countries.
The political state of the countries confronting Russia is poor, France is on the brink of civil war, Britain not far off, Germany , as well. Elections in other countries have been strange, So if Russia smells blood it might use the moment if a fight is inevitable, they always said it would be best to throw the first punch.
The ability of Russia to maintain an occupying force, is questionable so the reality is strikes ,which would remove the hostile nations ability to wage war. They might have the ability to do it if they have a missile advantage.